Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2018

Mesoscale Discussion 1565

October 11, 201831 counties in North Carolina; 29 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 11, 2018, 8:31 AM EDT for 31 counties in North Carolina; 29 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 11, 2018, 8:31 AM EDT (12:31 UTC)
Expired
Oct 11, 2018, 10:00 AM EDT
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
80%
All 60 counties

Alamance County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Greene County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Orange County, NC, Pender County, NC, Person County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Amelia County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2018-10-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 546 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2018-10-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 244 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
546 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
480 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
244 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
300 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.9
Supercell composite
5.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 10, 11:08 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnson, Union97 min
Oct 11, 4:34 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnson, Bladen, Brunswick, Cabarrus, Chatham, Columbus and 22 more56 min
Oct 11, 9:58 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCAlamance, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden and 49 more13 hr
Oct 11, 12:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven and 28 more117 min
Oct 11, 3:54 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Camden, Caswell, Chowan, Currituck and 18 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2018Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2018Every mesoscale discussion in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.