Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
711 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 445 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Severe Weather Threat Will Continue...

Line/cluster of storms moving into the Bluegrass is starting to
trail cells in an east-west orientation. This will likely increase
the flood threat over the next few hrs, generally along/just south
of the Bluegrass Parkway.

Will have to closely watch southern Indiana heading into early
evening, as storms continue to re-develop over SE Indiana with good
evidence of a boundary trailing SW toward Louisville. Environment in
this area is especially favorable for tornadoes given LCL heights
around 750m and bullseyes of 0-1km shear and helicity. The only real
limiting factor is the debris cloudiness from earlier storms, but
with clear skies along and west of I-65, would expect the atmosphere
to recover quickly.

Bottom line is that this event is not over, and all need to remain
weather aware!

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Severe Weather Outbreak Ongoing...

Severe convection is underway across southern Indiana and just into
north central Kentucky. Strong instability and unseasonably strong
wind fields aloft are supporting supercells focused along a NE-SW
oriented boundary now pushing east of I-65. We have had at least one
video confirmation of a tornado in Harrison County, Indiana, and
several reports of hail golfball size or larger. Expect this threat
to continue as we head toward sunset. Tornado threat will be
greatest along and NE of a boundary that currently runs from near
Madison, Indiana southeastward to near LEX. Surface winds remain at
least somewhat backed in this area.

Hi-res models continue to suggest at least one or two rounds of
additional development into the evening, and either of these
impulses could congeal into a linear feature with the potential for
significant wind damage.

Overall threat for flooding is fairly low as these storms remain
progressive. However, any repeated heavy rainfall, especially in
urban areas, could result in localized flooding.

Storms should wind down around midnight, with the rest of the
overnight remaining quiet, although on the muggy side. Strong upper
low settling over Lake Michigan will support mainly diurnal
convection on Saturday. The morning should remain dry, but will
carry likely POPs after 18Z Sat. Could still see a few strong
storms, mainly in south-central Kentucky, but the threat for more
organized severe wx should remain south and east of our area.

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Unseasonably strong upper low will slowly make its way into the Deep
South by Monday. Will continue high POPs on Sunday, with mainly
diurnally driven convection. Wind fields continue to weaken, so not
expecting much organization to it.

Once the upper low is to our south and east on Monday, we'll trend
back into a more typical summertime pattern. Westerlies remain to
our north with a weak bagginess over the Deep South. Expect
seasonable temps, typical summertime mugginess, with scattered
afternoon thunderstorms possible each day.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Scattered storms, some severe, will continue to develop this evening
ahead of a cold front stretching from Indiana to the Ozarks. Will
account for these storms in the first few hours of the TAFs.

The overnight hours after the storms will be quiet with VFR
conditions, though southwest breezes will stay up around 7 knots.

On Saturday a secondary front dropping down from a surface low over
northern Indiana will cause scattered afternoon storms to develop
once again.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Mesoscale...RAS
Short Term...RAS
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
340 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-211945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
340 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018 /240 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

...TORNADO WATCH 289 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe storms are expected through this evening. Damaging winds,
large hail, and tornadoes are all threats along with very heavy
rainfall and intense frequent lightning. Have a way to receive
weather warnings and a plan of action. The storms should be out of
the area midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Afternoon thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Sunday. A few
strong storms are possible on Saturday afternoon, mainly in south
central Kentucky. The main threats will be gusty winds and heavy
rainfall.

Scattered afternoon and evening storms are expected each day through
the next work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening.

RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
704 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             1 W SULPHUR WELL        37.10N 85.64W
07/20/2018  E1.75 INCH       METCALFE           KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIEWER REPORTS GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR
            SULPHUR WELL.

&&

CCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
706 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             GRADYVILLE              37.08N 85.42W
07/20/2018  E1.50 INCH       ADAIR              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
714 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE EDMONTON           36.98N 85.61W
07/20/2018                   METCALFE           KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FIRE CHIEF REPORTS TREES, POWER LINES DOWN
            AND SHOP DESTROYED NEAR EDMONTON ALONG
            HIGHWAY 496. HIGHWAY 496 CLOSED DUE TO
            DEBRIS.

&&

CCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
719 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     HAIL             1 NNW MEMPHIS           38.49N 85.77W
07/20/2018  E0.88 INCH       CLARK              IN   PUBLIC

&&

SSC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
721 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     HAIL             4 NNE BRADFORDSVILLE    37.56N 85.13W
07/20/2018  E1.00 INCH       MARION             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            NEAR BRADFORDSVILLE.

&&

CCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
724 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             5 E HOBSON              37.42N 85.28W
07/20/2018  E1.75 INCH       TAYLOR             KY   PUBLIC

&&

SSC