Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
511 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 445 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Severe Weather Threat Will Continue...

Line/cluster of storms moving into the Bluegrass is starting to
trail cells in an east-west orientation. This will likely increase
the flood threat over the next few hrs, generally along/just south
of the Bluegrass Parkway.

Will have to closely watch southern Indiana heading into early
evening, as storms continue to re-develop over SE Indiana with good
evidence of a boundary trailing SW toward Louisville. Environment in
this area is especially favorable for tornadoes given LCL heights
around 750m and bullseyes of 0-1km shear and helicity. The only real
limiting factor is the debris cloudiness from earlier storms, but
with clear skies along and west of I-65, would expect the atmosphere
to recover quickly.

Bottom line is that this event is not over, and all need to remain
weather aware!

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Severe Weather Outbreak Ongoing...

Severe convection is underway across southern Indiana and just into
north central Kentucky. Strong instability and unseasonably strong
wind fields aloft are supporting supercells focused along a NE-SW
oriented boundary now pushing east of I-65. We have had at least one
video confirmation of a tornado in Harrison County, Indiana, and
several reports of hail golfball size or larger. Expect this threat
to continue as we head toward sunset. Tornado threat will be
greatest along and NE of a boundary that currently runs from near
Madison, Indiana southeastward to near LEX. Surface winds remain at
least somewhat backed in this area.

Hi-res models continue to suggest at least one or two rounds of
additional development into the evening, and either of these
impulses could congeal into a linear feature with the potential for
significant wind damage.

Overall threat for flooding is fairly low as these storms remain
progressive. However, any repeated heavy rainfall, especially in
urban areas, could result in localized flooding.

Storms should wind down around midnight, with the rest of the
overnight remaining quiet, although on the muggy side. Strong upper
low settling over Lake Michigan will support mainly diurnal
convection on Saturday. The morning should remain dry, but will
carry likely POPs after 18Z Sat. Could still see a few strong
storms, mainly in south-central Kentucky, but the threat for more
organized severe wx should remain south and east of our area.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Unseasonably strong upper low will slowly make its way into the Deep
South by Monday. Will continue high POPs on Sunday, with mainly
diurnally driven convection. Wind fields continue to weaken, so not
expecting much organization to it.

Once the upper low is to our south and east on Monday, we'll trend
back into a more typical summertime pattern. Westerlies remain to
our north with a weak bagginess over the Deep South. Expect
seasonable temps, typical summertime mugginess, with scattered
afternoon thunderstorms possible each day.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 510 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Updated the TAFs based on current radar trends.

Additional thunderstorm development is expected across southern
Indiana around 22-23Z, and those storms will head southeast into
central Kentucky. Some of them will become severe and bring strong
gusty winds to locations they affect.

Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Low strato-cu deck has held on, keeping ceilings in the high-end
MVFR range. Mixing may become just a little deeper, but for the most
part rising dewpoints will offset the rise in temps, so not
convinced we can lift to VFR.

Confidence is high that strong to severe storms will affect the
terminals this evening, but lower confidence in the exact timing and
impacts. Will try to pinpoint a 4-6 hr window for storms, and will
go with MVFR cig/vis. Could easily see IFR but only for a small
portion of that time period.

Post-storm environment overnight will feature light S-SW winds and
mid-level debris clouds. Should remain dry through midday Saturday,
with a PROB30 group in order for storms in the planning period at
SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Mesoscale...RAS
Short Term...RAS
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...RAS/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
340 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-211945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
340 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018 /240 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

...TORNADO WATCH 289 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe storms are expected through this evening. Damaging winds,
large hail, and tornadoes are all threats along with very heavy
rainfall and intense frequent lightning. Have a way to receive
weather warnings and a plan of action. The storms should be out of
the area midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Afternoon thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Sunday. A few
strong storms are possible on Saturday afternoon, mainly in south
central Kentucky. The main threats will be gusty winds and heavy
rainfall.

Scattered afternoon and evening storms are expected each day through
the next work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening.

RAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
526 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ039-045>047-202200-
Mercer-Washington-Nelson-Anderson-
526 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN NELSON...
NORTHWESTERN MERCER...SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON AND NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 526 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 13 miles southeast
of Taylorsville, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ballard, Willisburg, Sinai, Tablow, Dugansville, Cornishville, Polin,
Johnsonville, Seaville and Fox Creek.

LAT...LON 3778 8496 3779 8526 3795 8525 3801 8494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 269DEG 23KT 3789 8518

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             4 ESE REDHOUSE          37.80N 84.20W
07/20/2018  E0.75 INCH       MADISON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
534 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ040-047-048-056-202200-
Mercer-Woodford-Jessamine-Garrard-
534 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MERCER...SOUTH
CENTRAL WOODFORD...NORTHWESTERN GARRARD AND SOUTHWESTERN JESSAMINE
COUNTIES...

At 533 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of
Harrodsburg, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nicholasville, Wilmore, Shakertown, Ebenezer, High Bridge, Mundys
Landing, Jessamine, Braxton and Little Hickman.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

LAT...LON 3779 8482 3789 8482 3791 8456 3776 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 272DEG 30KT 3783 8474

EBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
536 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW REDHOUSE          37.86N 84.33W
07/20/2018                   MADISON            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN.

&&

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
541 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE LEXINGTON          38.09N 84.45W
07/20/2018                   FAYETTE            KY   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWNED ON LESLIE DRIVE.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
549 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE HARRODSBURG       37.76N 84.82W
07/20/2018                   MERCER             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE ALONG BURGIN ROAD.

&&

CCM