Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Louisville, KY

July 20, 2018Marion County, Nelson County, Washington County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 20, 2018, 4:44 PM EDT for Marion County, Nelson County, Washington County, Kentucky. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 20, 2018, 4:44 PM EDT (20:44 UTC)
Expired: Jul 20, 2018, 5:30 PM EDT
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Marion County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Washington County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 20, 1:37 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 918 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -46 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 766 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 123 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 206 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.7
Supercell composite: 5.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 20, 3:23 PM EDT, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 3:23 PM EDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
323 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Severe Weather Outbreak Ongoing...

Severe convection is underway across southern Indiana and just into
north central Kentucky. Strong instability and unseasonably strong
wind fields aloft are supporting supercells focused along a NE-SW
oriented boundary now pushing east of I-65. We have had at least one
video confirmation of a tornado in Harrison County, Indiana, and
several reports of hail golfball size or larger. Expect this threat
to continue as we head toward sunset. Tornado threat will be
greatest along and NE of a boundary that currently runs from near
Madison, Indiana southeastward to near LEX. Surface winds remain at
least somewhat backed in this area.

Hi-res models continue to suggest at least one or two rounds of
additional development into the evening, and either of these
impulses could congeal into a linear feature with the potential for
significant wind damage.

Overall threat for flooding is fairly low as these storms remain
progressive. However, any repeated heavy rainfall, especially in
urban areas, could result in localized flooding.

Storms should wind down around midnight, with the rest of the
overnight remaining quiet, although on the muggy side. Strong upper
low settling over Lake Michigan will support mainly diurnal
convection on Saturday. The morning should remain dry, but will
carry likely POPs after 18Z Sat. Could still see a few strong
storms, mainly in south-central Kentucky, but the threat for more
organized severe wx should remain south and east of our area.

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Unseasonably strong upper low will slowly make its way into the Deep
South by Monday. Will continue high POPs on Sunday, with mainly
diurnally driven convection. Wind fields continue to weaken, so not
expecting much organization to it.

Once the upper low is to our south and east on Monday, we'll trend
back into a more typical summertime pattern. Westerlies remain to
our north with a weak bagginess over the Deep South. Expect
seasonable temps, typical summertime mugginess, with scattered
afternoon thunderstorms possible each day.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Low strato-cu deck has held on, keeping ceilings in the high-end
MVFR range. Mixing may become just a little deeper, but for the most
part rising dewpoints will offset the rise in temps, so not
convinced we can lift to VFR.

Confidence is high that strong to severe storms will affect the
terminals this evening, but lower confidence in the exact timing and
impacts. Will try to pinpoint a 4-6 hr window for storms, and will
go with MVFR cig/vis. Could easily see IFR but only for a small
portion of that time period.

Post-storm environment overnight will feature light S-SW winds and
mid-level debris clouds. Should remain dry through midday Saturday,
with a PROB30 group in order for storms in the planning period at
SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...RAS
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...RAS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 20, 3:40 PM EDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
340 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-211945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
340 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018 /240 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

...TORNADO WATCH 289 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe storms are expected through this evening. Damaging winds,
large hail, and tornadoes are all threats along with very heavy
rainfall and intense frequent lightning. Have a way to receive
weather warnings and a plan of action. The storms should be out of
the area midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Afternoon thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Sunday. A few
strong storms are possible on Saturday afternoon, mainly in south
central Kentucky. The main threats will be gusty winds and heavy
rainfall.

Scattered afternoon and evening storms are expected each day through
the next work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening.

RAS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 20, 4:20 PM EDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
420 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VERSAILLES              38.05N 84.73W
07/20/2018                   WOODFORD           KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREES DOWN.

&&

JMB

Local storm report, Jul 20, 4:22 PM EDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
422 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     HAIL             COXS CREEK              37.90N 85.47W
07/20/2018  E2.00 INCH       NELSON             KY   PUBLIC

&&

JMB

Local storm report, Jul 20, 4:31 PM EDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
431 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             2 WNW COXS CREEK        37.92N 85.51W
07/20/2018  E2.50 INCH       NELSON             KY   PUBLIC

&&

JMB

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 4:33 PM EDT, 11 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ045-053-063-202100-
Hart-Nelson-Larue-
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NELSON...SOUTHERN
LARUE AND NORTHEASTERN HART COUNTIES...

At 433 PM EDT/333 PM CDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles
southwest of Hodgenville, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hodgenville, Upton, Talley, Boundary Oak, Howardstown, Stiles,
Wabash, Maxine, Badger and Magnolia.

LAT...LON 3738 8586 3744 8590 3744 8589 3747 8590
      3750 8588 3761 8561 3747 8552 3745 8553
      3746 8556 3747 8558 3746 8561 3747 8563
      3745 8564 3744 8566 3742 8566
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 248DEG 28KT 3745 8583

DM

Local storm report, Jul 20, 4:34 PM EDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
434 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             3 SE LOUISVILLE         38.22N 85.73W
07/20/2018  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          KY   PUBLIC

            THURSTON AVENUE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MRC

Local storm report, Jul 20, 4:41 PM EDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
441 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW LEXINGTON         38.00N 84.52W
07/20/2018                   FAYETTE            KY   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ACROSS MALIBU DRIVE.

&&

MRC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 20, 5:30 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Oldham	30 min
Jul 20, 6:38 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Franklin, Scott, Shelby	52 min
Jul 20, 8:42 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Henry	33 min
Jul 20, 9:17 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Henry	28 min
Jul 20, 9:35 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Franklin, Scott	115 min
Jul 20, 9:50 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Nicholas, Scott	40 min
Jul 20, 10:29 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Bourbon, Scott	31 min
Jul 20, 12:54 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Meade	51 min
Jul 20, 1:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Trimble	37 min
Jul 20, 1:57 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Scott	33 min
Jul 20, 2:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Jefferson	70 min
Jul 20, 2:20 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Trimble	25 min
Jul 20, 2:21 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Hardin, Meade	24 min
Jul 20, 2:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Hardin, Jefferson, Meade	34 min
Jul 20, 3:01 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Jefferson	3 hr
Jul 20, 3:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Jefferson, Shelby, Spencer	36 min
Jul 20, 3:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Bullitt	29 min
Jul 20, 3:17 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Shelby	28 min
Jul 20, 3:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Nelson, Spencer	52 min
Jul 20, 3:34 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Scott	3 hr
Jul 20, 3:38 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Franklin, Scott, Shelby, Woodford	37 min
Jul 20, 3:39 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Nelson	51 min
Jul 20, 3:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Harrison, Nicholas, Scott	31 min
Jul 20, 3:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Fayette, Jessamine, Scott, Woodford	39 min
Jul 20, 3:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bourbon, Scott, Woodford	20 min
Jul 20, 3:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Nelson, Spencer, Washington	62 min
Jul 20, 4:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bourbon, Harrison, Nicholas	37 min
Jul 20, 4:14 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Mercer, Nelson, Washington	25 min
Jul 20, 4:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Clark, Fayette, Jessamine, Madison	26 min
Jul 20, 4:27 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LMK	Harrison	3 hr
Jul 20, 4:29 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Fayette	3 hr
Jul 20, 4:33 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Larue	27 min
Jul 20, 4:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Mercer, Washington, Woodford	24 min
Jul 20, 4:44 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Bourbon	3 hr
Jul 20, 4:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Clark, Fayette, Jessamine, Madison	38 min
Jul 20, 4:59 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Larue	31 min
Jul 20, 4:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Fayette, Garrard, Jessamine, Mercer, Washington and 1 more	31 min
Jul 20, 5:09 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Clark, Fayette, Jessamine, Madison, Mercer, Woodford	3 hr
Jul 20, 5:12 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Marion, Nelson, Washington	26 min
Jul 20, 5:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Garrard, Madison	25 min
Jul 20, 5:21 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Larue, Marion, Taylor	54 min
Jul 20, 5:26 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Anderson	34 min
Jul 20, 5:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Boyle, Garrard, Jessamine, Madison, Mercer	30 min
Jul 20, 5:34 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Jessamine	26 min
Jul 20, 5:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Boyle, Mercer, Washington	38 min
Jul 20, 5:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Garrard, Madison	26 min
Jul 20, 5:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Marion	34 min
Jul 20, 5:57 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Washington	33 min
Jul 20, 6:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Nelson, Washington	17 min
Jul 20, 6:02 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Hart	28 min
Jul 20, 6:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Larue, Marion, Washington	40 min
Jul 20, 6:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Garrard, Madison	30 min
Jul 20, 6:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Casey, Lincoln, Marion	42 min
Jul 20, 6:19 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Bourbon	26 min
Jul 20, 6:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Green, Metcalfe	36 min
Jul 20, 6:29 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Casey, Lincoln	61 min
Jul 20, 6:30 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Clark, Garrard, Jessamine, Madison	3 hr
Jul 20, 6:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Casey, Green, Taylor	32 min
Jul 20, 6:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Boyle, Casey, Marion, Washington	30 min
Jul 20, 6:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Cumberland, Metcalfe, Monroe	38 min
Jul 20, 6:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Cumberland, Metcalfe	49 min
Jul 20, 7:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Boyle, Casey, Lincoln, Marion, Taylor	24 min
Jul 20, 7:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Trimble	37 min
Jul 20, 7:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Green, Taylor	30 min
Jul 20, 7:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Oldham	27 min
Jul 20, 7:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Clinton, Cumberland, Monroe, Russell	36 min
Jul 20, 7:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Boyle, Casey, Garrard, Lincoln	31 min
Jul 20, 7:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Barren, Metcalfe, Monroe	31 min
Jul 20, 7:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Oldham	26 min
Jul 20, 7:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Taylor	33 min
Jul 20, 7:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Oldham	15 min
Jul 20, 7:54 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Meade	23 min
Jul 20, 7:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Oldham, Shelby	35 min
Jul 20, 7:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Clinton, Cumberland, Metcalfe, Monroe, Russell	46 min
Jul 20, 4:31 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Crawford, Orange, Perry	29 min
Jul 20, 5:25 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Harrison	35 min
Jul 20, 10:50 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Crawford	40 min
Jul 20, 11:18 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Orange	27 min
Jul 20, 1:33 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Floyd	27 min
Jul 20, 1:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Floyd, Harrison	50 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.