Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
511 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 445 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Severe Weather Threat Will Continue...

Line/cluster of storms moving into the Bluegrass is starting to
trail cells in an east-west orientation. This will likely increase
the flood threat over the next few hrs, generally along/just south
of the Bluegrass Parkway.

Will have to closely watch southern Indiana heading into early
evening, as storms continue to re-develop over SE Indiana with good
evidence of a boundary trailing SW toward Louisville. Environment in
this area is especially favorable for tornadoes given LCL heights
around 750m and bullseyes of 0-1km shear and helicity. The only real
limiting factor is the debris cloudiness from earlier storms, but
with clear skies along and west of I-65, would expect the atmosphere
to recover quickly.

Bottom line is that this event is not over, and all need to remain
weather aware!

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Severe Weather Outbreak Ongoing...

Severe convection is underway across southern Indiana and just into
north central Kentucky. Strong instability and unseasonably strong
wind fields aloft are supporting supercells focused along a NE-SW
oriented boundary now pushing east of I-65. We have had at least one
video confirmation of a tornado in Harrison County, Indiana, and
several reports of hail golfball size or larger. Expect this threat
to continue as we head toward sunset. Tornado threat will be
greatest along and NE of a boundary that currently runs from near
Madison, Indiana southeastward to near LEX. Surface winds remain at
least somewhat backed in this area.

Hi-res models continue to suggest at least one or two rounds of
additional development into the evening, and either of these
impulses could congeal into a linear feature with the potential for
significant wind damage.

Overall threat for flooding is fairly low as these storms remain
progressive. However, any repeated heavy rainfall, especially in
urban areas, could result in localized flooding.

Storms should wind down around midnight, with the rest of the
overnight remaining quiet, although on the muggy side. Strong upper
low settling over Lake Michigan will support mainly diurnal
convection on Saturday. The morning should remain dry, but will
carry likely POPs after 18Z Sat. Could still see a few strong
storms, mainly in south-central Kentucky, but the threat for more
organized severe wx should remain south and east of our area.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Unseasonably strong upper low will slowly make its way into the Deep
South by Monday. Will continue high POPs on Sunday, with mainly
diurnally driven convection. Wind fields continue to weaken, so not
expecting much organization to it.

Once the upper low is to our south and east on Monday, we'll trend
back into a more typical summertime pattern. Westerlies remain to
our north with a weak bagginess over the Deep South. Expect
seasonable temps, typical summertime mugginess, with scattered
afternoon thunderstorms possible each day.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 510 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Updated the TAFs based on current radar trends.

Additional thunderstorm development is expected across southern
Indiana around 22-23Z, and those storms will head southeast into
central Kentucky. Some of them will become severe and bring strong
gusty winds to locations they affect.

Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Low strato-cu deck has held on, keeping ceilings in the high-end
MVFR range. Mixing may become just a little deeper, but for the most
part rising dewpoints will offset the rise in temps, so not
convinced we can lift to VFR.

Confidence is high that strong to severe storms will affect the
terminals this evening, but lower confidence in the exact timing and
impacts. Will try to pinpoint a 4-6 hr window for storms, and will
go with MVFR cig/vis. Could easily see IFR but only for a small
portion of that time period.

Post-storm environment overnight will feature light S-SW winds and
mid-level debris clouds. Should remain dry through midday Saturday,
with a PROB30 group in order for storms in the planning period at
SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Mesoscale...RAS
Short Term...RAS
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...RAS/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
340 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-211945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
340 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018 /240 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

...TORNADO WATCH 289 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe storms are expected through this evening. Damaging winds,
large hail, and tornadoes are all threats along with very heavy
rainfall and intense frequent lightning. Have a way to receive
weather warnings and a plan of action. The storms should be out of
the area midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Afternoon thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Sunday. A few
strong storms are possible on Saturday afternoon, mainly in south
central Kentucky. The main threats will be gusty winds and heavy
rainfall.

Scattered afternoon and evening storms are expected each day through
the next work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening.

RAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
615 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ047-048-055>057-067-202245-
Boyle-Mercer-Jessamine-Lincoln-Madison-Garrard-
615 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER...GARRARD...SOUTHWESTERN JESSAMINE...EASTERN
BOYLE AND MADISON COUNTIES...

At 615 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Blackburn to Danville. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Danville, Harrodsburg, Stanford, Lancaster, Shirley,
Mccreary, Berea, Junction City and Burgin.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

LAT...LON 3767 8409 3765 8413 3757 8409 3752 8420
      3754 8435 3747 8437 3750 8486 3776 8485
      3777 8471 3783 8469 3778 8467 3781 8466
      3780 8461 3778 8464 3777 8463 3780 8408
      3778 8411 3777 8408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 305DEG 26KT 3765 8413 3764 8477

EBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
619 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ041-042-202245-
Bourbon-Fayette-
619 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BOURBON AND NORTHEASTERN
FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 619 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Paris, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Paris, Millersburg, Currentsville, Shawhan, Ewalt Crossroads,
Brentsville, Blacks Crossroads, Ruddels Mills, Loradale and Kiserton.

LAT...LON 3815 8440 3821 8441 3821 8440 3822 8441
      3825 8442 3830 8432 3832 8429 3831 8428
      3837 8419 3829 8411 3828 8412 3827 8410
      3826 8410 3826 8409 3824 8407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 250DEG 38KT 3822 8440

TWF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
634 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             JACKTOWN                37.44N 85.02W
07/20/2018  E1.00 INCH       CASEY              KY   PUBLIC

            NEAR THE JUNCTION OF HIGHWAY 49 AND 78.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
635 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             JACKTOWN                37.44N 85.02W
07/20/2018  E1.00 INCH       CASEY              KY   PUBLIC

&&

SSC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
636 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             JACKTOWN                37.45N 85.02W
07/20/2018  E1.00 INCH       CASEY              KY   PUBLIC

&&

SSC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
638 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             JACKTOWN                37.45N 85.02W
07/20/2018  E1.00 INCH       CASEY              KY   PUBLIC

&&

SSC