Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
511 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 445 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Severe Weather Threat Will Continue...

Line/cluster of storms moving into the Bluegrass is starting to
trail cells in an east-west orientation. This will likely increase
the flood threat over the next few hrs, generally along/just south
of the Bluegrass Parkway.

Will have to closely watch southern Indiana heading into early
evening, as storms continue to re-develop over SE Indiana with good
evidence of a boundary trailing SW toward Louisville. Environment in
this area is especially favorable for tornadoes given LCL heights
around 750m and bullseyes of 0-1km shear and helicity. The only real
limiting factor is the debris cloudiness from earlier storms, but
with clear skies along and west of I-65, would expect the atmosphere
to recover quickly.

Bottom line is that this event is not over, and all need to remain
weather aware!

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Severe Weather Outbreak Ongoing...

Severe convection is underway across southern Indiana and just into
north central Kentucky. Strong instability and unseasonably strong
wind fields aloft are supporting supercells focused along a NE-SW
oriented boundary now pushing east of I-65. We have had at least one
video confirmation of a tornado in Harrison County, Indiana, and
several reports of hail golfball size or larger. Expect this threat
to continue as we head toward sunset. Tornado threat will be
greatest along and NE of a boundary that currently runs from near
Madison, Indiana southeastward to near LEX. Surface winds remain at
least somewhat backed in this area.

Hi-res models continue to suggest at least one or two rounds of
additional development into the evening, and either of these
impulses could congeal into a linear feature with the potential for
significant wind damage.

Overall threat for flooding is fairly low as these storms remain
progressive. However, any repeated heavy rainfall, especially in
urban areas, could result in localized flooding.

Storms should wind down around midnight, with the rest of the
overnight remaining quiet, although on the muggy side. Strong upper
low settling over Lake Michigan will support mainly diurnal
convection on Saturday. The morning should remain dry, but will
carry likely POPs after 18Z Sat. Could still see a few strong
storms, mainly in south-central Kentucky, but the threat for more
organized severe wx should remain south and east of our area.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Unseasonably strong upper low will slowly make its way into the Deep
South by Monday. Will continue high POPs on Sunday, with mainly
diurnally driven convection. Wind fields continue to weaken, so not
expecting much organization to it.

Once the upper low is to our south and east on Monday, we'll trend
back into a more typical summertime pattern. Westerlies remain to
our north with a weak bagginess over the Deep South. Expect
seasonable temps, typical summertime mugginess, with scattered
afternoon thunderstorms possible each day.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 510 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Updated the TAFs based on current radar trends.

Additional thunderstorm development is expected across southern
Indiana around 22-23Z, and those storms will head southeast into
central Kentucky. Some of them will become severe and bring strong
gusty winds to locations they affect.

Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Low strato-cu deck has held on, keeping ceilings in the high-end
MVFR range. Mixing may become just a little deeper, but for the most
part rising dewpoints will offset the rise in temps, so not
convinced we can lift to VFR.

Confidence is high that strong to severe storms will affect the
terminals this evening, but lower confidence in the exact timing and
impacts. Will try to pinpoint a 4-6 hr window for storms, and will
go with MVFR cig/vis. Could easily see IFR but only for a small
portion of that time period.

Post-storm environment overnight will feature light S-SW winds and
mid-level debris clouds. Should remain dry through midday Saturday,
with a PROB30 group in order for storms in the planning period at
SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Mesoscale...RAS
Short Term...RAS
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...RAS/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
340 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-211945-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
340 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018 /240 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

...TORNADO WATCH 289 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe storms are expected through this evening. Damaging winds,
large hail, and tornadoes are all threats along with very heavy
rainfall and intense frequent lightning. Have a way to receive
weather warnings and a plan of action. The storms should be out of
the area midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Afternoon thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Sunday. A few
strong storms are possible on Saturday afternoon, mainly in south
central Kentucky. The main threats will be gusty winds and heavy
rainfall.

Scattered afternoon and evening storms are expected each day through
the next work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through this evening.

RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
447 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE LEXINGTON         38.04N 84.50W
07/20/2018                   FAYETTE            KY   NEWSPAPER

            TREE ON A HOUSE, ROSE AND MAXWELL.

&&

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
459 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ045-053-054-064-065-202130-
Marion-Taylor-Nelson-Larue-Green-
459 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL NELSON...NORTH
CENTRAL GREEN...SOUTHEASTERN LARUE...WESTERN MARION AND NORTHWESTERN
TAYLOR COUNTIES...

At 459 PM EDT/359 PM CDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles
east of Hodgenville, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Loretto, Raywick, Wards, Saint Francis, Saint Joseph, Attilla,
Howardstown, Dant, Stiles and Nerinx.

LAT...LON 3759 8570 3768 8537 3767 8536 3743 8527
      3742 8564
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 256DEG 33KT 3752 8558

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW LEXINGTON         38.02N 84.52W
07/20/2018                   FAYETTE            KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE ON A HOME IN VENICE PARK.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
506 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N KEENE               37.98N 84.62W
07/20/2018                   JESSAMINE          KY   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN FROM STRONG WINDS.

&&

SSC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
509 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW ALTON              38.10N 84.95W
07/20/2018                   ANDERSON           KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON CAR WITH PEOPLE INSIDE OF IT.
            MANY OTHER TREES DOWN IN THE AREA.

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
510 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW LEXINGTON          38.01N 84.57W
07/20/2018                   FAYETTE            KY   PUBLIC

            TREE BRANCHES SHEARED 6 FT ABOVE GROUND.

&&

SSC