Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
323 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Severe Weather Outbreak Ongoing...

Severe convection is underway across southern Indiana and just into
north central Kentucky. Strong instability and unseasonably strong
wind fields aloft are supporting supercells focused along a NE-SW
oriented boundary now pushing east of I-65. We have had at least one
video confirmation of a tornado in Harrison County, Indiana, and
several reports of hail golfball size or larger. Expect this threat
to continue as we head toward sunset. Tornado threat will be
greatest along and NE of a boundary that currently runs from near
Madison, Indiana southeastward to near LEX. Surface winds remain at
least somewhat backed in this area.

Hi-res models continue to suggest at least one or two rounds of
additional development into the evening, and either of these
impulses could congeal into a linear feature with the potential for
significant wind damage.

Overall threat for flooding is fairly low as these storms remain
progressive. However, any repeated heavy rainfall, especially in
urban areas, could result in localized flooding.

Storms should wind down around midnight, with the rest of the
overnight remaining quiet, although on the muggy side. Strong upper
low settling over Lake Michigan will support mainly diurnal
convection on Saturday. The morning should remain dry, but will
carry likely POPs after 18Z Sat. Could still see a few strong
storms, mainly in south-central Kentucky, but the threat for more
organized severe wx should remain south and east of our area.

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Unseasonably strong upper low will slowly make its way into the Deep
South by Monday. Will continue high POPs on Sunday, with mainly
diurnally driven convection. Wind fields continue to weaken, so not
expecting much organization to it.

Once the upper low is to our south and east on Monday, we'll trend
back into a more typical summertime pattern. Westerlies remain to
our north with a weak bagginess over the Deep South. Expect
seasonable temps, typical summertime mugginess, with scattered
afternoon thunderstorms possible each day.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Low strato-cu deck has held on, keeping ceilings in the high-end
MVFR range. Mixing may become just a little deeper, but for the most
part rising dewpoints will offset the rise in temps, so not
convinced we can lift to VFR.

Confidence is high that strong to severe storms will affect the
terminals this evening, but lower confidence in the exact timing and
impacts. Will try to pinpoint a 4-6 hr window for storms, and will
go with MVFR cig/vis. Could easily see IFR but only for a small
portion of that time period.

Post-storm environment overnight will feature light S-SW winds and
mid-level debris clouds. Should remain dry through midday Saturday,
with a PROB30 group in order for storms in the planning period at
SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...RAS
Long Term...RAS
Aviation...RAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1103 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-211515-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
1103 AM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018 /1003 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered storms will develop quickly this afternoon and intensify
as a strong upper level weather system pushes through. There will be
several waves of storms and all storm hazards are on the table.

Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all threats along with
very heavy rainfall and intense frequent lightning. Have a way to
receive weather warnings and a plan of action.

The most widespread period of storms will be from late this
afternoon through late evening. The storms should be out of the
area midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered afternoon and evening storms are expected each day through
the late weekend and into mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed later this afternoon and well into
the evening.

BJS/JDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
316 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ029-038-045-201945-
Bullitt-Spencer-Nelson-
316 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL SPENCER...NORTH
CENTRAL NELSON AND CENTRAL BULLITT COUNTIES...

At 316 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Shepherdsville,
moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Shepherdsville, Mount Washington, Ridgetop, Solitude, Bardstown
Junction, Hobbs, Smithville, Deatsville, Cedar Grove and Lotus.

LAT...LON 3792 8582 3803 8581 3803 8549 3787 8550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 272DEG 24KT 3797 8575

DM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
317 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

KYZ034-035-039-201945-
Shelby-Franklin-Anderson-
317 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...NORTH
CENTRAL ANDERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 317 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Shelbyville,
moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Frankfort, Shelbyville, Bryant, Southville, Benson, Broadville Manor,
Avenstoke, Harvieland, Alton and Veachland.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3810 8525 3823 8524 3826 8490 3805 8493
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 272DEG 24KT 3815 8518

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE LOUISVILLE        38.20N 85.73W
07/20/2018                   JEFFERSON          KY   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON BUILDING.

&&

CG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUPONT                  38.90N 85.52W
07/20/2018                   JEFFERSON          IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     HAIL             MADISON                 38.76N 85.38W
07/20/2018  E1.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
333 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     HAIL             3 E SHEPHERDSVILLE      37.99N 85.66W
07/20/2018  E1.00 INCH       BULLITT            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JMB