Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Goodland, KS

868 
WWUS53 KGLD 280307
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
907 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

COC125-KSC023-280330-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-180528T0330Z/
Yuma CO-Cheyenne KS-
907 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM
MDT/1030 PM CDT/ FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...

At 907 PM MDT/1007 PM CDT/, a severe thunderstorm was located near
St. Francis, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
St. Francis and Wheeler. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3994 10174 3983 10162 3971 10162 3964 10176
      3962 10190 3963 10204 3966 10211 3971 10217
      3981 10220 3991 10204 3997 10182
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 231DEG 24KT 3977 10186 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Vincent

615 
WWUS53 KGLD 280321
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1021 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

COC125-280331-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-180528T0330Z/
Yuma CO-
1021 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3994 10174 3983 10162 3971 10166 3966 10177
      3964 10188 3965 10195 3967 10200 3971 10203
      3978 10204 3992 10201 3997 10182
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 235DEG 26KT 3984 10182 

$$

KSC023-280330-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-180528T0330Z/
Cheyenne KS-
1021 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...

At 1021 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles north of
St. Francis, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
St. Francis and Wheeler. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3994 10174 3983 10162 3971 10166 3966 10177
      3964 10188 3965 10195 3967 10200 3971 10203
      3978 10204 3992 10201 3997 10182
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 235DEG 26KT 3984 10182 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Vincent

947 
WWUS53 KGLD 280331
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1031 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

KSC023-280340-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-180528T0330Z/
Cheyenne KS-
1031 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.  Dime size hail 
and wind gusts up to 50 mph will remain possible as this storm 
tracks northeast toward Parks and Benkelman in Dundy County, 
Nebraska.

LAT...LON 3994 10174 3983 10162 3971 10166 3966 10177
      3964 10188 3965 10195 3967 10200 3971 10203
      3978 10204 3992 10201 3997 10182
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 228DEG 33KT 3990 10175 

$$

Vincent

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
458 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

Main forecast concern will be chance of severe thunderstorms and
locally heavy rainfall today into Tuesday night. Satellite showing
an amplified pattern from the Pacific into North America. The flow
over North America also has a split over the eastern and western
portions of the country. Main feature of interest is nearly
stationary upper low over the Intermountain West. Satellite is
showing a nice tropical moisture connection into the central portion
of the country.

Tonight...Instability axis looks to set up along and west of the
Colorado border. A negatively tilted shortwave will move across the
area the night. Some indication that a right rear quadrant of mid
level speed max will affect the western portion of the area, above
the instability axis, from mid afternoon through the night.

The instability and lift parameters have come together with the cap
currently gone or nearly gone. Thunderstorms have already formed
just to our west and they will continue increase in coverage and
intensity. Instability, shear, and composite parameters point toward
these storms being able to become severe. Very large hail and
damaging winds will be the most likely threats. However, a tornado
or two cannot be ruled out. Also precipitable water values of 1 to
1.5 inches along steering flow winds from south to north to make
training more likely will create a flash flood threat as well.

Monday/Monday night...This period looking a little more uncertain
over yesterday. Upper trough, with numerous shortwave troughs
rotating trough, and numerous mesoscale boundaries along with an
incoming front could cause precipitation to develop about anytime
and anywhere. The various large scale high resolution/CAMs guidance
are indicating that. Will keep some kind of mention of precipitation
around the entire time. If any tendency in the output, it does tend
to put the greater chance of precipitation in the eastern portion.

Depending on how details work out, storms look to have a good chance
to become severe. Lift and severe parameters are about the same to a
little better than todays. Locally heavy rainfall still looks
possible with continued high PWs and slower storm movement.
Different high resolution output are producing rather high rainfall
amounts.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Did not spend much time on this period.
Mesoscale details will have a dramatic affect on where thunderstorms
develop and if they will be severe. Locally heavy rainfall is still
possible. Details are too problematic right now to get specific and
not too much time to look at it since thunderstorms are currently
developing.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

Another disturbance will move over the area on Wednesday bringing
more showers to the Tri-State area. Showers and a possibly
isolated storm or two will extend into the later overnight
period.

Thursday afternoon, a ridge will build over the area, leading to a
warming trend. Expect daily highs to be in the mid to upper 90s
through Friday.

There may be chances for showers Friday night into Saturday, but
confidence is much lower since the latest model run. Expecting it
to stay dry through Sunday, but high temps will trend a little
cooler in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 453 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

Current thunderstorm is coverage is more spotty and not as intense
previously expected. At this vfr conditions are expected and not
particularly confident of a storm affecting either site. So have
included vcts mention at Kgld through the evening and for Kmck
from 04z to 09z. Southeast winds of 19 to 25 knots with gusts into
the 27 to 34 knot range are expected through the evening before
becoming 8 to 18 knots sustained through the morning. The winds
will become sustained near 15 knots with gusts near 23 knots at
kgld. Uncertain about tomorrows thunderstorm coverage so put vcts
at both sites from 17-18z through the end of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...EV
AVIATION...BULLER

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1006 AM MDT Sun May 27 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1006 AM MDT Sun May 27 2018 /1106 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Tri-State region
for the afternoon and evening hours. A Slight Risk for severe storms
is in place for areas mainly along and west of Highway 25. A
Marginal Risk is in place for the remainder of the area.

Main threats will be damaging winds 60 mph and greater...large hail
of at least 1 to 2 inches. The strong winds could cause some blowing
dust. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall
is also possible with any storms. This will create an above normal
chance of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

For Monday...severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Tri-
State region for the afternoon and evening hours. The entire area is
currently under a Slight Risk for severe storms.

For Tuesday...severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Tri-
State region for the afternoon and evening hours. The entire area is
currently under a Marginal Risk for severe storms.

Main threats will be damaging winds 60 mph and greater and large
hail of at least 1 to 2 inches. There is a little better chance of
tornadoes on Monday. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible Monday
with any storms. This will create an above normal chance of flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening and
once again on Monday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
644 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST BENKELMAN               40.05N 101.54W
05/27/2018  E60 MPH          DUNDY              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
726 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             12 N BURLINGTON         39.48N 102.27W
05/27/2018  E1.25 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
738 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     HAIL             8 N BETHUNE             39.42N 102.43W
05/27/2018  E1.50 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 8-10
            MILES NORTH OF BETHUNE AT 7:23 PM MDT.

&&

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
741 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             MCDONALD                39.79N 101.37W
05/27/2018  E1.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   PUBLIC

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
754 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     HAIL             SEIBERT                 39.30N 102.87W
05/27/2018  M0.50 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
807 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST BURLINGTON CO AIRPORT   39.24N 102.29W
05/27/2018  M58 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   ASOS

            SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS (58
            MPH) AT THE BURLINGTON ASOS, KITR.

&&

VINCENT