Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
458 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

Main forecast concern will be chance of severe thunderstorms and
locally heavy rainfall today into Tuesday night. Satellite showing
an amplified pattern from the Pacific into North America. The flow
over North America also has a split over the eastern and western
portions of the country. Main feature of interest is nearly
stationary upper low over the Intermountain West. Satellite is
showing a nice tropical moisture connection into the central portion
of the country.

Tonight...Instability axis looks to set up along and west of the
Colorado border. A negatively tilted shortwave will move across the
area the night. Some indication that a right rear quadrant of mid
level speed max will affect the western portion of the area, above
the instability axis, from mid afternoon through the night.

The instability and lift parameters have come together with the cap
currently gone or nearly gone. Thunderstorms have already formed
just to our west and they will continue increase in coverage and
intensity. Instability, shear, and composite parameters point toward
these storms being able to become severe. Very large hail and
damaging winds will be the most likely threats. However, a tornado
or two cannot be ruled out. Also precipitable water values of 1 to
1.5 inches along steering flow winds from south to north to make
training more likely will create a flash flood threat as well.

Monday/Monday night...This period looking a little more uncertain
over yesterday. Upper trough, with numerous shortwave troughs
rotating trough, and numerous mesoscale boundaries along with an
incoming front could cause precipitation to develop about anytime
and anywhere. The various large scale high resolution/CAMs guidance
are indicating that. Will keep some kind of mention of precipitation
around the entire time. If any tendency in the output, it does tend
to put the greater chance of precipitation in the eastern portion.

Depending on how details work out, storms look to have a good chance
to become severe. Lift and severe parameters are about the same to a
little better than todays. Locally heavy rainfall still looks
possible with continued high PWs and slower storm movement.
Different high resolution output are producing rather high rainfall
amounts.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Did not spend much time on this period.
Mesoscale details will have a dramatic affect on where thunderstorms
develop and if they will be severe. Locally heavy rainfall is still
possible. Details are too problematic right now to get specific and
not too much time to look at it since thunderstorms are currently
developing.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

Another disturbance will move over the area on Wednesday bringing
more showers to the Tri-State area. Showers and a possibly
isolated storm or two will extend into the later overnight
period.

Thursday afternoon, a ridge will build over the area, leading to a
warming trend. Expect daily highs to be in the mid to upper 90s
through Friday.

There may be chances for showers Friday night into Saturday, but
confidence is much lower since the latest model run. Expecting it
to stay dry through Sunday, but high temps will trend a little
cooler in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 453 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

Current thunderstorm is coverage is more spotty and not as intense
previously expected. At this vfr conditions are expected and not
particularly confident of a storm affecting either site. So have
included vcts mention at Kgld through the evening and for Kmck
from 04z to 09z. Southeast winds of 19 to 25 knots with gusts into
the 27 to 34 knot range are expected through the evening before
becoming 8 to 18 knots sustained through the morning. The winds
will become sustained near 15 knots with gusts near 23 knots at
kgld. Uncertain about tomorrows thunderstorm coverage so put vcts
at both sites from 17-18z through the end of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...EV
AVIATION...BULLER

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1006 AM MDT Sun May 27 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1006 AM MDT Sun May 27 2018 /1106 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Tri-State region
for the afternoon and evening hours. A Slight Risk for severe storms
is in place for areas mainly along and west of Highway 25. A
Marginal Risk is in place for the remainder of the area.

Main threats will be damaging winds 60 mph and greater...large hail
of at least 1 to 2 inches. The strong winds could cause some blowing
dust. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall
is also possible with any storms. This will create an above normal
chance of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

For Monday...severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Tri-
State region for the afternoon and evening hours. The entire area is
currently under a Slight Risk for severe storms.

For Tuesday...severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Tri-
State region for the afternoon and evening hours. The entire area is
currently under a Marginal Risk for severe storms.

Main threats will be damaging winds 60 mph and greater and large
hail of at least 1 to 2 inches. There is a little better chance of
tornadoes on Monday. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible Monday
with any storms. This will create an above normal chance of flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening and
once again on Monday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
623 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

COZ090-KSZ001-NEZ079-280045-
Yuma County CO-Cheyenne KS-Dundy NE-
623 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN YUMA COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA UNTIL
645 PM MDT/745 PM CDT/...

At 622 PM MDT/722 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles southeast of
Holyoke to 9 miles northwest of Haigler to 11 miles north of Bonny
Reservoir. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wray, Laird, Beecher Island, Alvin, Vernon and Wauneta.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 216 and 269.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT/900 PM
CDT/ for northeastern Colorado...northwestern Kansas...and
southwestern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4044 10205 4035 10205 4035 10204 3970 10204
      3969 10226 3990 10235 4044 10242
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 233DEG 32KT 4048 10224 4013 10204 3978 10216

TL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
638 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

COZ091-280100-
Kit Carson County CO-
638 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM MDT...

At 638 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Stratton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington, Stratton, Bethune and Vona.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 411 and 436.
 Highway 385 near mile marker 187, and between mile markers 189 and
190.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

LAT...LON 3909 10251 3910 10270 3927 10280 3955 10252
      3933 10224
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 223DEG 25KT 3925 10255

TL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
644 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST BENKELMAN               40.05N 101.54W
05/27/2018  E60 MPH          DUNDY              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
726 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             12 N BURLINGTON         39.48N 102.27W
05/27/2018  E1.25 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
738 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     HAIL             8 N BETHUNE             39.42N 102.43W
05/27/2018  E1.50 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 8-10
            MILES NORTH OF BETHUNE AT 7:23 PM MDT.

&&

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
741 PM MDT SUN MAY 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             MCDONALD                39.79N 101.37W
05/27/2018  E1.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   PUBLIC

&&

BWARREN