Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
318 PM MDT Mon May 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Mon May 28 2018

Main concern widespread severe and heavy rainfall/flash flooding
concerns especially tonight and probably lingering into Tuesday.
Combination of outflow boundary and slow moving cold front are
currently draped across the area. A shortwave trough is also
moving across. The air mass is very moist and unstable is in
place. Mesoscale boundary to our south with southerly riding over
the top of it has kept persistent thunderstorms going across the
area all day.

This area will continue. Current high resolution guidance shows a
number of waves of thunderstorms moving across the area through
the night. The combination of all these parameters will cause
severe thunderstorms into this evening. These thunderstorms have
produced up to 2 inch per hour rainfall rates with many locations
in the northern and eastern portion of the area receiving heavy
rainfall since last night. Considering the rainfall that has
occurred, is going on, and is expected through tonight, have
issued a Flash Flood Watch through the night.

Have not been able to spend much for Tuesday. However surface boundary
looks to be over the central portion of the area by early
afternoon. At the same time a shortwave trough will move across.
To start the day there should be lingering thunderstorms over the
eastern portion of the area. The surface boundary and shortwave
trough will cause thunderstorms to increase in coverage and
intensity during the afternoon. So the possibility still exists
for severe thunderstorms with a slight risk in the day 2 outlook.
Since the same air mass is in place will have a continued risk for
heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Mon May 28 2018

Not much time due to ongoing hazardous weather. A couple of
shortwaves will continue thunderstorm chances Tuesday and
Wednesday nights. After a few dry days, chances of thunderstorms
return during the weekend and especially late in the weekend into
Monday.

In general there looks to be a warming trend through this period.
Made no changes to what forecast builder gave me due to lack of
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

This is a messy and uncertain forecast due to ongoing convection
and mesoscale features that are not being resolved by the current
model run, even the high resolution output. The winds will be high
variable in direction due to outflow boundaries draped across the
area. For Kgld, the wind direction outside thunderstorms will tend
to be south to southeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 25
mph. For Kmck, the winds will vary from northeast to southeast at
15 to 25 mph with occasional gusts to around 30 mph.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the entire between
18z and 21z and will cover most of the forecast area. Vfr
conditions are expected except for the occasional mvfr conditions
when a stronger cell comes across. Later on tonight after the
storms have finished mvfr to occasional ifr conditions will occur.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ001>004-014>016-
     028-029.

CO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ090.

NE...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1049 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-291200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1049 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018 /1149 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A widespread significant outbreak of severe weather is expected this
afternoon into tonight across the entire area. The threats will be
damaging winds 60 mph and greater...large hail of at least 1 to 3
inches in diameter and a greater than normal risk of tornadoes. Also
heavy rainfall is expected which will cause an above normal flash
flood threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

For Tuesday...severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Tri-
State region for the afternoon and evening hours. The entire area is
currently under a Marginal Risk for severe storms.

Main threats will be damaging winds up to 60 mph...and large hail of
at least 1 inch. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with any
storms. This will create an above normal chance of flash flooding.

Wednesday will have a chance for thunderstorms...with no chance for
severe at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be required this afternoon and tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
322 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0251 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E HILL CITY           39.37N 99.83W
05/28/2018  M3.75 INCH       GRAHAM             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SPOTTER LOCATED 1 MILE EAST OF HILL CITY,
            REPORTED 3.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT FELL
            FROM ~1:00PM TO 2:51 PM. STREET WAS FLOODED
            AND ENCROACHING UP ON THE OBSERVER'S
            DRIVEWAY.

&&

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
331 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             15 NW LEOTI             38.64N 101.55W
05/28/2018  E1.75 INCH       WICHITA            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
401 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N QUINTER             39.11N 100.24W
05/28/2018                   GOVE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER CALLED IN OVER 1 FOOT OF FLOWING
            WATER ON CASTLE ROCK ROAD 3 MILES NORTH OF
            QUINTER.

&&

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
409 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     HAIL             3 S PARK                39.07N 100.37W
05/28/2018  M0.88 INCH       GOVE               KS   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS REPORT OF NICKLE SIZE HAIL LOCATED
            3 MILES SOUTH OF PARK, KANSAS.

&&

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
410 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             WINONA                  39.06N 101.25W
05/28/2018  M1.00 INCH       LOGAN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BWARREN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
420 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

COZ090-KSZ001-282230-
Yuma County CO-Cheyenne KS-
420 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS UNTIL 430 PM MDT/530 PM CDT/...

At 420 PM MDT/520 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 9 miles northeast of Bonny Reservoir, moving north at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible
with this storm. This storm may intensify rapidly and become severe
over the next hour.

Locations impacted include...
Beecher Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT/1000 PM CDT/ for
northeastern Colorado...and northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3961 10197 3968 10219 3997 10213 3990 10170
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 200DEG 20KT 3972 10205

JRM