Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Goodland, KS

656 
WWUS53 KGLD 281620
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1120 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KSC065-137-281700-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180528T1700Z/
Norton KS-Graham KS-
1120 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTON AND NORTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTIES...

At 1119 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles north of
Morland, or 12 miles northwest of Hill City, moving northeast at 25
mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. 

Locations impacted include...
Lenora, Edmond and Densmore. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3936 10003 3940 10015 3977 9996 3971 9966
TIME...MOT...LOC 1619Z 211DEG 22KT 3948 10003 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

EV

047 
WWUS53 KGLD 281650
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1150 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KSC065-281659-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180528T1700Z/
Graham KS-
1150 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3957 9987 3957 9998 3970 9990 3970 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 211DEG 22KT 3964 9991 

$$

KSC137-281700-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180528T1700Z/
Norton KS-
1150 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTON COUNTY...

At 1149 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles west of
Edmond, or 13 miles south of Norton, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Edmond.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9987 3957 9998 3970 9990 3970 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 211DEG 22KT 3964 9991 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

EV

864 
WWUS53 KGLD 281658
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1158 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KSC137-281708-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180528T1700Z/
Norton KS-
1158 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
Norton county until 1245 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3957 9987 3957 9998 3970 9990 3970 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 211DEG 22KT 3968 9988 

$$

EV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
938 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

Just completed an update. Main change was to update pops to
account for ongoing thunderstorms which a lot of the output is
having trouble with. Used the Rap to address the short term
issues. Based on it and other current guidance I updated the pops
through the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are a partly to
mostly cloudy mix with temperatures currently ranging widely from
the mid 50s west up to the lower 70s in far eastern zones. Winds
are variable ranging from 5-10 mph.

Going into today...the main wx focus for the entire CWA will continue
to be the potential for severe wx. Upper low continues to meander
over the central Rockies with a lee-side trough remaining just
off the Front Range. Orientation of the trough will be negatively
tilted...allowing for SE flow to continue to bring moist air into
the region. Model instability ahead of the trough combined with
high dewpts and strong SE winds gusting 15-30 mph thru
tonight...will allow for thunderstorms to develop and become
severe.

With little movement of the trough from yesterday...combined with a
shortwave working off the upper low to interact with the trough
thru tonight...SPC has an Enhanced Risk for severe wx. Large hail
of at least 1-2"...winds 60+ mph and even a few tornadoes will
again accompany these storms for the area. PW values still range
from an inch to 1.50" and with training of storms expected...flash
flooding is likely...especially in areas where storms have worked
thru yesterday. As a result...WPC has the region in a Slight Risk
for Day 1 excessive rainfall.

Going into Tuesday...what remains of the trough/boundary over the CWA
shifts east into central KS...with the upper low moving into the
north central Plains. Enough instability remains over the CWA
during the day that some storm development will occur with the
possibility of some severe trw. SPC does have the area under a
Marginal Risk.

Wednesday into Wednesday night will see some trw activity over the
region as a shortwave works thru the region. At this time no
severe expected.

For temps...highs in the 80s today/Wednesday...with Tuesday seeing
a dip into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Overnight lows will
range mainly in the 50s with some low 60s east. Cloud cover from
aforementioned trw activity will impact temps...especially during
the day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

This period of the forecast will be dry for the most part, except
for chances for rain Wednesday evening.

Wednesday an upper level short wave trough will deepen over the
forecast area in the late afternoon and the evening.  Models are
showing a deeper short wave trough than yesterday, giving more
confidence that rainfall will occur.  Am not expecting any severe
weather so far due to the dry line being south of the forecast area.

Thursday through Friday the upper level ridge will build back over
the forecast area, bringing dry weather and warmer temperatures.

Friday afternoon an upper level short wave trough will move across
the forecast area.  Meanwhile the dry line will be over the eastern
part of the forecast area.  As the short wave trough deepens over
the dry line in the evening storms may form.  If storms do form,
they may become severe.  If the dry line continues to move further
west into the forecast area severe weather will affect more of the
area.

A cold front will move through behind the short wave trough Friday
night.  The cooler weather will only last a day.  The warmer weather
will return Sunday as the ridge builds back over the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1215 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

Expect variable winds at 10-15 knots overnight, becoming SE/SSE at
15-25 knots during the day Monday. VFR conditions will generally
prevail through ~18Z, however, scattered to widespread thunderstorms
are expected Monday afternoon/evening into Monday night.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Buller
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
410 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-291015-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
410 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018 /510 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Tri- State region
for the afternoon and evening hours. Most of the area is currently
under an Enhanced Risk for severe storms. Extreme Eastern/Western
zones are under a Slight Risk for severe storms.

Main threats will be damaging winds 60 mph and greater...and large
hail of at least 1 to 3 inches. There is a chance of tornadoes as
well. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with any storms. This
will create an above normal chance of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

For Tuesday...severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Tri-
State region for the afternoon and evening hours. The entire area is
currently under a Marginal Risk for severe storms.

Main threats will be damaging winds up to 60 mph...and large hail of
at least 1 inch. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with any
storms. This will create an above normal chance of flash flooding.

Wednesday will have a chance for thunderstorms...with no chance for
severe at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required later today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
852 AM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 AM     HEAVY RAIN       12 N COLBY              39.56N 101.05W
05/28/2018  M1.50 INCH       THOMAS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN TOTAL FROM MORNING CONVECTION

&&

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
857 AM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ATWOOD                  39.81N 101.04W
05/28/2018  M0.85 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN TOTAL FROM MORNING CONVECTION. IN TOWN.

&&

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
900 AM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 AM     HEAVY RAIN       8 N LEVANT              39.50N 101.19W
05/28/2018  M1.70 INCH       THOMAS             KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED VIA FACEBOOK, 1.7 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL MEASURED AT THEIR LOCATION.

&&

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
902 AM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SW ATWOOD               39.81N 101.04W
05/28/2018                   RAWLINS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS BEAVER CREEK SW OF ATWOOD ALONG
            CREEK RD IS OUT OF ITS BANKS AND FLOODING THE ROAD

&&

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1049 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KSZ003-015-281600-
Sheridan KS-Decatur KS-
1049 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SHERIDAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

At 1049 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Selden, or 10 miles north of Hoxie, moving northeast at
30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Selden, Dresden and Leoville.

LAT...LON 3939 10041 3949 10060 3975 10045 3961 10018
      3958 10018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1549Z 213DEG 25KT 3951 10046

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             11 NNE LEVANT           39.53N 101.14W
05/27/2018  E1.50 INCH       THOMAS             KS   PUBLIC

            PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL REPORT 11 MILES NW OF COLBY
            RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

TLYNCH