Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1148 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

Just completed an update. Main change was to update pops to
account for ongoing thunderstorms which a lot of the output is
having trouble with. Used the Rap to address the short term
issues. Based on it and other current guidance I updated the pops
through the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are a partly to
mostly cloudy mix with temperatures currently ranging widely from
the mid 50s west up to the lower 70s in far eastern zones. Winds
are variable ranging from 5-10 mph.

Going into today...the main wx focus for the entire CWA will continue
to be the potential for severe wx. Upper low continues to meander
over the central Rockies with a lee-side trough remaining just
off the Front Range. Orientation of the trough will be negatively
tilted...allowing for SE flow to continue to bring moist air into
the region. Model instability ahead of the trough combined with
high dewpts and strong SE winds gusting 15-30 mph thru
tonight...will allow for thunderstorms to develop and become
severe.

With little movement of the trough from yesterday...combined with a
shortwave working off the upper low to interact with the trough
thru tonight...SPC has an Enhanced Risk for severe wx. Large hail
of at least 1-2"...winds 60+ mph and even a few tornadoes will
again accompany these storms for the area. PW values still range
from an inch to 1.50" and with training of storms expected...flash
flooding is likely...especially in areas where storms have worked
thru yesterday. As a result...WPC has the region in a Slight Risk
for Day 1 excessive rainfall.

Going into Tuesday...what remains of the trough/boundary over the CWA
shifts east into central KS...with the upper low moving into the
north central Plains. Enough instability remains over the CWA
during the day that some storm development will occur with the
possibility of some severe trw. SPC does have the area under a
Marginal Risk.

Wednesday into Wednesday night will see some trw activity over the
region as a shortwave works thru the region. At this time no
severe expected.

For temps...highs in the 80s today/Wednesday...with Tuesday seeing
a dip into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Overnight lows will
range mainly in the 50s with some low 60s east. Cloud cover from
aforementioned trw activity will impact temps...especially during
the day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

This period of the forecast will be dry for the most part, except
for chances for rain Wednesday evening.

Wednesday an upper level short wave trough will deepen over the
forecast area in the late afternoon and the evening.  Models are
showing a deeper short wave trough than yesterday, giving more
confidence that rainfall will occur.  Am not expecting any severe
weather so far due to the dry line being south of the forecast area.

Thursday through Friday the upper level ridge will build back over
the forecast area, bringing dry weather and warmer temperatures.

Friday afternoon an upper level short wave trough will move across
the forecast area.  Meanwhile the dry line will be over the eastern
part of the forecast area.  As the short wave trough deepens over
the dry line in the evening storms may form.  If storms do form,
they may become severe.  If the dry line continues to move further
west into the forecast area severe weather will affect more of the
area.

A cold front will move through behind the short wave trough Friday
night.  The cooler weather will only last a day.  The warmer weather
will return Sunday as the ridge builds back over the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

This is a messy and uncertain forecast due to ongoing convection
and mesoscale features that are not being resolved by the current
model run, even the high resolution output. The winds will be high
variable in direction due to outflow boundaries draped across the
area. For Kgld, the wind direction outside thunderstorms will tend
to be south to southeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 25
mph. For Kmck, the winds will vary from northeast to southeast at
15 to 25 mph with occasional gusts to around 30 mph.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the entire between
18z and 21z and will cover most of the forecast area. Vfr
conditions are expected except for the occasional mvfr conditions
when a stronger cell comes across. Later on tonight after the
storms have finished mvfr to occasional ifr conditions will occur.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Buller
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1049 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-291200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1049 AM MDT Mon May 28 2018 /1149 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A widespread significant outbreak of severe weather is expected this
afternoon into tonight across the entire area. The threats will be
damaging winds 60 mph and greater...large hail of at least 1 to 3
inches in diameter and a greater than normal risk of tornadoes. Also
heavy rainfall is expected which will cause an above normal flash
flood threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

For Tuesday...severe thunderstorms will be possible across the Tri-
State region for the afternoon and evening hours. The entire area is
currently under a Marginal Risk for severe storms.

Main threats will be damaging winds up to 60 mph...and large hail of
at least 1 inch. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with any
storms. This will create an above normal chance of flash flooding.

Wednesday will have a chance for thunderstorms...with no chance for
severe at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be required this afternoon and tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
857 AM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ATWOOD                  39.81N 101.04W
05/28/2018  M0.85 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN TOTAL FROM MORNING CONVECTION. IN TOWN.

&&

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
900 AM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 AM     HEAVY RAIN       8 N LEVANT              39.50N 101.19W
05/28/2018  M1.70 INCH       THOMAS             KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED VIA FACEBOOK, 1.7 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL MEASURED AT THEIR LOCATION.

&&

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
902 AM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SW ATWOOD               39.81N 101.04W
05/28/2018                   RAWLINS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS BEAVER CREEK SW OF ATWOOD ALONG
            CREEK RD IS OUT OF ITS BANKS AND FLOODING THE ROAD

&&

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1049 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KSZ003-015-281600-
Sheridan KS-Decatur KS-
1049 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SHERIDAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

At 1049 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Selden, or 10 miles north of Hoxie, moving northeast at
30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Selden, Dresden and Leoville.

LAT...LON 3939 10041 3949 10060 3975 10045 3961 10018
      3958 10018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1549Z 213DEG 25KT 3951 10046

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             11 NNE LEVANT           39.53N 101.14W
05/27/2018  E1.50 INCH       THOMAS             KS   PUBLIC

            PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL REPORT 11 MILES NW OF COLBY
            RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

TLYNCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1215 PM MDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     HAIL             BETHUNE                 39.30N 102.42W
05/27/2018  E1.75 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

TLYNCH