Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Another round of thunderstorm activity is anticipated today as a
shortwave passes over the area this afternoon and into the early
overnight period. Convection has already begun to fire over the area
ahead of a line of thunderstorms moving eastward towards the area
from Alabama. A boundary is draped across the southern portion of
Georgia and is progged to remain stalled across the area throughout
the remainder of the day. Storms have plenty of instability to work
with as values are quite high this afternoon with SBCAPE and MUCAPE
values exceeding 3000 J/kg. As the eastward moving storm system
interacts with the boundary it could provide a focus for enhanced
thunderstorm activity and the potential for development of strong to
severe storms. Gusty winds appear to be the main threat associated
with any severe storms that occur. With high PWATS of 2 inches or
higher across the area, though, it is also possible for stronger
storms to produce locally heavy rain which could lead to some
isolated flooding concerns, particularly in the vicinity of the
boundary in the southern end of the region.

Model guidance is consistent in indicating that the next shortwave
will enter the area late Friday, bringing about enhanced
thunderstorms chances to north and central Georgia once again
starting in the afternoon and lasting into the early overnight
period. Although the timing of these thunderstorms will depend on
the speed of the shortwave, high-end chance to likely PoPs are
nonetheless expected in the afternoon the evening hours Friday.
PWATs will remain high throughout the area on Friday with many
locations in north Georgia in excess of 2 inches and ample
instability will be present, with SBCAPE and MUCAPE values on the
order of 2000-3000 J/kg. Combined with the upper-level support
provided by the shortwave aloft, expect numerous storms to develop
in association with this disturbance. While generally weak flow
aloft suggests that the risk for severe storms should not be
widespread, the high PAWT values indicate that stronger storms could
produce locally heavy rainfall.

Increased precipitation and cloud coverage associated with these
shortwaves will moderate temperatures somewhat, with high
temperatures trending back to near normal values. However, with high
humidity values as a result of the deep moisture in place over the
area, maximum heat index values could still be on the high side and
even exceed 100 across the southern tier of the CWA.

King

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

The long term period begins with a trough over the eastern US and a
shortwave just to our north, centered just south of the Ohio Valley
into Tennessee and Alabama. The shortwave will continue to exit
the area on Saturday potentially mixing in some slightly drier air
for Saturday afternoon so pops are just slightly lower, but still
in the chance category. Further to the north, a deepening trough
will become a cutoff low centered over the Ohio Valley by Sunday
afternoon (early Sunday for the ECMWF, Sunday afternoon for the
GFS). Regardless, pieces of energy will continue to round the base
of the trough and push into our area helping to provide a focus
for showers and thunderstorms across the area on Sunday through at
least through late on Monday. Similar to most days, strong to
isolated severe storms will be possible with the primary threats
being heavy rain, strong winds, and frequent lightning.

For late Monday/Tuesday, the low will weaken and kick out to the
northeast pushing a cold front through the area by Tuesday. As a
result, pops for Tuesday/Wednesday are in the slight chance range
across much of the area. Differences exist between the models as to
how dry the air filtering in behind the front will be, with the GFS
being the driest. Will continue to monitor trends as pops will
continue to be adjusted. Pops increase again for Thursday afternoon
as another shortwave works its way towards the area.

Temperatures through the extended will be near average with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and low to mid
70s.

Reaves

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Organized TSRA is once again expected to develop and move west to
east across the area late this afternoon and into the evening,
requiring a TEMPO for all TAF sites. Scattered convection is
already developing across the region, which necessitated moving
TEMPO group forward to 19Z for most sites. Most significant
thunderstorm activity looks to impact the metro TAF sites at
around 19-21Z. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are again
expected in the afternoon and evening Friday. Mainly VFR cigs at
035-050 are expected during the afternoon today and Friday
although some MVFR cigs around 025 could be observed with
thunderstorms. Winds expected to be W and less than 10 kts through
the period, with the exception of gusts associated with any
thunderstorms that occur.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on the timing and location of convection.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  90  71  89 /  60  50  40  40
Atlanta         73  88  72  87 /  60  60  40  40
Blairsville     66  82  65  82 /  60  70  40  50
Cartersville    70  86  69  87 /  60  60  30  40
Columbus        74  91  73  90 /  50  60  30  30
Gainesville     71  86  70  86 /  60  60  30  50
Macon           73  92  73  90 /  60  40  20  40
Rome            71  86  69  88 /  60  60  30  40
Peachtree City  72  89  71  88 /  60  60  40  40
Vidalia         75  93  75  92 /  40  30  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
429 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
429 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through this
afternoon and evening, especially over western Georgia and
increase in coverage as they move east during the late afternoon
and evening. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging
winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly
during the afternoon and evening. Widespread severe weather is
not anticipated, however, some storms could produce strong winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
612 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW COLLEGE PARK      33.63N  84.46W
08/09/2018                   CLAYTON            GA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN ON THE ENTRANCE RAMP FROM RIVERDALE RD ONTO
            I-85 NB.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800818

THIEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
616 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ068>070-079-080-092245-
Lamar GA-Taylor GA-Upson GA-Talbot GA-Pike GA-
616 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAMAR...NORTHWESTERN
TAYLOR...UPSON...TALBOT AND SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
EDT...

At 615 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Atwater to near Po Biddy Crossroads to near Box
Springs...and moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Thomaston, Talbotton, Molena, Yatesville, Junction City, Geneva,
Sunset Village, Lincoln Park, The Rock, Atwater, Sprewell Bluff State
Park, Howard, Logtown, Sunnyside, Salem, Prattsburg, Hannahs Mill,
Big Lazer Creek Wma, Wesley Church and Baldwinville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3274 8454 3287 8453 3288 8451 3303 8451
      3301 8411 3280 8414 3270 8420 3268 8420
      3268 8419 3255 8427 3256 8469
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 274DEG 24KT 3299 8443 3274 8447 3257 8465

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
623 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ084-085-097-092300-
Wilkinson GA-Johnson GA-Laurens GA-
623 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WILKINSON...NORTHWESTERN
JOHNSON AND NORTHWESTERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 622 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Nicklesville, or 7
miles south of Irwinton...moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dublin, Irwinton, East Dublin, McIntyre, Dudley, Montrose, Allentown,
Chappells Mill, Tuckers Crossroad and Nicklesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3246 8286 3259 8323 3280 8335 3286 8333
      3279 8296 3276 8296 3278 8289 3276 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 288DEG 24KT 3270 8315

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
625 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ081-083-093>096-105-107-109-092315-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Dooly GA-Houston GA-Crawford GA-Bleckley GA-
Dodge GA-Twiggs GA-Pulaski GA-
625 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MACON...PEACH...NORTHERN
DOOLY...HOUSTON...SOUTHERN CRAWFORD...BLECKLEY...NORTHWESTERN
DODGE...SOUTHERN TWIGGS AND NORTHERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM
EDT...

At 624 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Cary to near Sand Bed to Nakomis...and moving
south at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Perry, Fort Valley, Cochran, Hawkinsville, Warner Robins,
Centerville, Byron, Unadilla, Montezuma, Marshallville, Robins Air
Force Base, Hayneville, Houston Lake, Mobley Crossing, District Path,
Ocmulgee Public Fishing Area, Moss Oak, Paulk, Saint Louis and
Yonkers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3225 8402 3251 8402 3252 8401 3252 8402
      3253 8402 3253 8400 3255 8402 3261 8402
      3263 8355 3263 8334 3232 8316 3223 8344
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 337DEG 14KT 3255 8333 3244 8354 3254 8400

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
627 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ024-025-027-092300-
Madison GA-Banks GA-Jackson GA-
627 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN BANKS AND
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 627 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Peach State Speedway to Paoli...and moving
northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Jefferson, Commerce, Homer, Danielsville, Maysville, Nicholson,
Comer, Pendergrass, Ila, Carlton, Talmo, Pocataligo, Peach State
Speedway, Paoli, Apple Valley and Banks Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3441 8338 3432 8339 3427 8334 3424 8334
      3426 8330 3425 8327 3424 8317 3427 8311
      3426 8312 3423 8308 3417 8310 3415 8306
      3411 8303 3410 8304 3404 8298 3403 8300
      3417 8371 3442 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 246DEG 25KT 3420 8361 3411 8308

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
651 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ069-079>081-091>093-092330-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Taylor GA-Marion GA-Upson GA-Crawford GA-
Talbot GA-
651 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MACON...SCHLEY...
TAYLOR...MARION...SOUTHEASTERN UPSON...SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND
SOUTHEASTERN TALBOT COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 651 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Salem to near Howard to near Brantley...and
moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Buena Vista, Butler, Ellaville, Roberta, Reynolds, Ideal, Putnam,
Brantley, Murrays Crossroads, Whitewater State Park, Rupert, Oakland,
Howard, Tazewell, Doyle, Salem, Horns, Wesley Church, Fickling Mill
and Walls Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3216 8449 3239 8466 3244 8466 3262 8438
      3288 8430 3272 8400 3232 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 330DEG 18KT 3279 8426 3257 8435 3239 8462

WIND...50MPH