Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
940 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to work on any remaining
instability this evening. Do expect activity to continue
diminishing in coverage and intensity through midnight. Have
adjusted pops a bit to reflect current trends. Also have had to
tweak the hourly temp grids...due to all of the cold pools left
behind the convection.

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 730 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

While weak surface high pressure is in control, there is plenty of
showers and thunderstorms across TN down through north AL moving
eastward this afternoon. This is all in association with a
shortwave/weak troughing in the mid-levels. There is plenty of
available instability and moisture across our region, thus we
anticipate this activity to move through north GA through the
remainder of the afternoon/evening.  While the effective shear is
weak, it might be enough to see an organized line develop. Based on
the cold pools and looking at Q vectors analysis, if a line develops
late this afternoon, the outflows could drive a faster storm motion
further to the SE. This would then bring some of the activity across
east central GA later this evening. We will have to monitor the
mesoanalysis as we progress through the afternoon. Given this, there
is still quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to storm coverage and
timeline. Storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds,
frequent lightning, small hail and heavy rain being the main
impacts. Most of the activity should shift east of the area by
tonight.

A brief reprieve in precipitation activity is expected overnight
with afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected again tomorrow
afternoon/evening.  A front draped across KY will try to drop south
Thursday night, eventually becoming stalled along the northern tier
of GA Friday morning.

Temperatures will be hot and humid again Thursday afternoon with
heat indices around 101-104 in SE GA, just below heat advisory
criteria.

26

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

The long term period begins with a broad trough over the eastern
US and higher pressure to our south, putting us in nearly zonal
flow with a front draped across the area. This front will provide
forcing for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening
across the area. While the front lingers and stalls across the
area, a developing shortwave to our west on Friday will push into
the area on Saturday/Sunday. The additional forcing leading will
likely lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening on Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, a pocket
of energy moving through the base of the aforementioned trough
will eventually become a cutoff low centered over the Ohio Valley
on Sunday, pushing a cold front across the area most likely on
Monday/Tuesday.

Instability will also be present every afternoon/evening leading to
chance and likely pops across the area through Monday. PWATS through
that time frame are forecast to be in the 1.7 to 2 inch range, so
heavy rain will also be possible with any storms in addition to
damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning.

Although there are still timing differences between the GFS and
ECMWF on the frontal passage, eventually that front pushes through
the area and brings in some drier air. The GFS is just slightly
faster than the ECMWF, pushing the drier air in on Monday
afternoon opposed to much later on Monday into Tuesday. Overall,
Tuesday and Wednesday are shaping up to be the "driest" days of
the extended, especially for northern areas. PWATs are even
forecast to dip below 1 inch as the drier air filters into the
area!

Temperatures through the extended will be near average with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s across much of the area with lows in the
uppers 60s and lower to mid 70s.

Reaves

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the
northern TAF sites through the early evening hours. May have to
look at expanding the tempo group, depending upon whether the
activity in eastern AL weakens or not. The hi-res models don't
have a great handle on the situation. But, do think some weakening
is possible due to the loss of heating, but not confident that the
activity will diminish greatly in coverage. Winds will remain on
the west side through the period. A bit more convective coverage
is expected tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  90  71  89 /  60  60  50  50
Atlanta         72  88  72  87 /  60  70  60  60
Blairsville     65  82  65  82 /  70  60  50  60
Cartersville    71  88  69  86 /  70  70  60  60
Columbus        73  92  74  90 /  40  50  50  60
Gainesville     71  88  71  86 /  60  60  50  60
Macon           73  91  73  91 /  40  50  40  50
Rome            71  88  70  86 /  70  60  60  60
Peachtree City  72  89  71  88 /  60  60  60  60
Vidalia         75  93  74  92 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1147 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1147 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. Thunderstorms should develop after noon, especially
over north Georgia and increase in coverage as they move south
during the afternoon and evening. Some storms could be strong to
severe with damaging winds, frequent lightning, large hail up to 1
inch in diameter and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly
during the afternoon and evening. Widespread severe weather is
not anticipated, however, some storms could produce strong winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
946 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

GAZ079>081-091-093-090230-
Macon GA-Taylor GA-Marion GA-Crawford GA-Talbot GA-
946 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MACON...TAYLOR...
NORTHEASTERN MARION...WESTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN TALBOT
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

At 945 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Howard, or 8 miles
west of Butler...moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Butler, Junction City, Howard, Baldwinville, Rupert, Charing, Wesley
Church, Fickling Mill, Potterville and Mauk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3246 8447 3268 8447 3270 8421 3269 8420
      3270 8420 3271 8411 3242 8412
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 269DEG 8KT 3257 8439

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
946 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

GAZ062-075-076-090230-
Jefferson GA-Glascock GA-Warren GA-
946 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...
NORTHEASTERN GLASCOCK AND SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM
EDT...

At 946 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Stapleton, or 7 miles
east of Gibson...moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Wrens, Stapleton, Matthews, Bastonville and Stellaville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3316 8226 3321 8256 3333 8256 3334 8249
      3334 8245 3333 8243 3333 8242 3331 8240
      3331 8234 3330 8231 3327 8229 3327 8226
      3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 269DEG 8KT 3325 8247

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
958 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

GAZ066-067-078-090215-
Harris GA-Troup GA-Meriwether GA-
958 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HARRIS...TROUP AND
NORTHWESTERN MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 958 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over LaGrange...moving east
at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
LaGrange, Greenville, West Point, Hogansville, Pine Mountain, Lone
Oak, Saint Marks, Mountville, Cannonville, Louise, Odessadale,
Stovall, Harrisonville, Hillcrest, Big Springs, Durand, Wares
Crossroads, Jones Crossroads, Baughs Crossroads and Smiths Crossroad.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3318 8511 3318 8509 3317 8509 3318 8507
      3316 8454 3283 8484 3282 8517 3283 8517
      3285 8515 3286 8519 3295 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 269DEG 8KT 3306 8502

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1000 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

GAZ082-083-094-095-090230-
Peach GA-Bibb GA-Houston GA-Twiggs GA-
1000 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PEACH...SOUTHERN BIBB...
NORTHERN HOUSTON AND SOUTHWESTERN TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM
EDT...

At 1000 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Lakewood, or 9 miles
north of Perry...moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Perry, Warner Robins, Centerville, Byron, Robins Air Force Base, Sand
Bed, Houston Lake, Lakewood, Huber, Powerville, Elberta, Middle
Georgia Regional Airport, Bonaire, Miami Valley and Kathleen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3249 8383 3266 8382 3269 8377 3269 8374
      3270 8374 3273 8353 3244 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 269DEG 8KT 3259 8373

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1002 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

GAZ059-060-072-073-090230-
Putnam GA-Baldwin GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
1002 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM...
NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN...NORTHEASTERN JONES AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

At 1001 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Stanfordville, or 11
miles southwest of Eatonton...moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Milledgeville, Eatonton, Midway-Hardwick, Meriwether, Ethridge,
Bradley, Wayside, Allenwood, Haddock, Resseaus Crossroads, Round Oak,
Plant Harlee Branch, Hillsboro, Browns Crossing, Stanfordville,
Blountsville and Warfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3305 8368 3327 8366 3331 8325 3323 8325
      3321 8326 3320 8327 3319 8327 3319 8325
      3301 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 269DEG 8KT 3318 8350

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1012 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

GAZ053>057-066>068-078-090300-
Harris GA-Fayette GA-Clayton GA-Coweta GA-Troup GA-Spalding GA-
Meriwether GA-Pike GA-Henry GA-
1012 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HARRIS...FAYETTE...
CLAYTON...SOUTHEASTERN COWETA...TROUP...SPALDING...MERIWETHER...
NORTHWESTERN PIKE AND SOUTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM
EDT...

At 1012 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Fayetteville to near Whitesville-Pine Lake...and
moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Newnan, LaGrange, Griffin, McDonough, Fayetteville, Jonesboro,
Zebulon, Hamilton, Greenville, Peachtree City, Stockbridge,
Riverdale, Hampton, Tyrone, Lovejoy, Manchester, West Point, Senoia,
Hogansville and Grantville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3325 8491 3356 8445 3354 8405 3351 8405
      3349 8403 3299 8445 3299 8449 3297 8453
      3291 8453 3291 8451 3285 8456 3284 8470
      3272 8468 3268 8471 3277 8514 3278 8513
      3281 8517 3285 8515 3286 8519
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 283DEG 14KT 3351 8444 3283 8510

WIND...40MPH