Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Another round of thunderstorm activity is anticipated today as a
shortwave passes over the area this afternoon and into the early
overnight period. Convection has already begun to fire over the area
ahead of a line of thunderstorms moving eastward towards the area
from Alabama. A boundary is draped across the southern portion of
Georgia and is progged to remain stalled across the area throughout
the remainder of the day. Storms have plenty of instability to work
with as values are quite high this afternoon with SBCAPE and MUCAPE
values exceeding 3000 J/kg. As the eastward moving storm system
interacts with the boundary it could provide a focus for enhanced
thunderstorm activity and the potential for development of strong to
severe storms. Gusty winds appear to be the main threat associated
with any severe storms that occur. With high PWATS of 2 inches or
higher across the area, though, it is also possible for stronger
storms to produce locally heavy rain which could lead to some
isolated flooding concerns, particularly in the vicinity of the
boundary in the southern end of the region.

Model guidance is consistent in indicating that the next shortwave
will enter the area late Friday, bringing about enhanced
thunderstorms chances to north and central Georgia once again
starting in the afternoon and lasting into the early overnight
period. Although the timing of these thunderstorms will depend on
the speed of the shortwave, high-end chance to likely PoPs are
nonetheless expected in the afternoon the evening hours Friday.
PWATs will remain high throughout the area on Friday with many
locations in north Georgia in excess of 2 inches and ample
instability will be present, with SBCAPE and MUCAPE values on the
order of 2000-3000 J/kg. Combined with the upper-level support
provided by the shortwave aloft, expect numerous storms to develop
in association with this disturbance. While generally weak flow
aloft suggests that the risk for severe storms should not be
widespread, the high PAWT values indicate that stronger storms could
produce locally heavy rainfall.

Increased precipitation and cloud coverage associated with these
shortwaves will moderate temperatures somewhat, with high
temperatures trending back to near normal values. However, with high
humidity values as a result of the deep moisture in place over the
area, maximum heat index values could still be on the high side and
even exceed 100 across the southern tier of the CWA.

King

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

The long term period begins with a trough over the eastern US and a
shortwave just to our north, centered just south of the Ohio Valley
into Tennessee and Alabama. The shortwave will continue to exit
the area on Saturday potentially mixing in some slightly drier air
for Saturday afternoon so pops are just slightly lower, but still
in the chance category. Further to the north, a deepening trough
will become a cutoff low centered over the Ohio Valley by Sunday
afternoon (early Sunday for the ECMWF, Sunday afternoon for the
GFS). Regardless, pieces of energy will continue to round the base
of the trough and push into our area helping to provide a focus
for showers and thunderstorms across the area on Sunday through at
least through late on Monday. Similar to most days, strong to
isolated severe storms will be possible with the primary threats
being heavy rain, strong winds, and frequent lightning.

For late Monday/Tuesday, the low will weaken and kick out to the
northeast pushing a cold front through the area by Tuesday. As a
result, pops for Tuesday/Wednesday are in the slight chance range
across much of the area. Differences exist between the models as to
how dry the air filtering in behind the front will be, with the GFS
being the driest. Will continue to monitor trends as pops will
continue to be adjusted. Pops increase again for Thursday afternoon
as another shortwave works its way towards the area.

Temperatures through the extended will be near average with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and low to mid
70s.

Reaves

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Organized TSRA is once again expected to develop and move west to
east across the area late this afternoon and into the evening,
requiring a TEMPO for all TAF sites. Scattered convection is
already developing across the region, which necessitated moving
TEMPO group forward to 19Z for most sites. Most significant
thunderstorm activity looks to impact the metro TAF sites at
around 19-21Z. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are again
expected in the afternoon and evening Friday. Mainly VFR cigs at
035-050 are expected during the afternoon today and Friday
although some MVFR cigs around 025 could be observed with
thunderstorms. Winds expected to be W and less than 10 kts through
the period, with the exception of gusts associated with any
thunderstorms that occur.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on the timing and location of convection.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  90  71  89 /  60  50  40  40
Atlanta         73  88  72  87 /  60  60  40  40
Blairsville     66  82  65  82 /  60  70  40  50
Cartersville    70  86  69  87 /  60  60  30  40
Columbus        74  91  73  90 /  50  60  30  30
Gainesville     71  86  70  86 /  60  60  30  50
Macon           73  92  73  90 /  60  40  20  40
Rome            71  86  69  88 /  60  60  30  40
Peachtree City  72  89  71  88 /  60  60  40  40
Vidalia         75  93  75  92 /  40  30  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
429 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
429 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through this
afternoon and evening, especially over western Georgia and
increase in coverage as they move east during the late afternoon
and evening. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging
winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly
during the afternoon and evening. Widespread severe weather is
not anticipated, however, some storms could produce strong winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
535 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E GRESHAM PARK        33.70N  84.29W
08/09/2018                   DEKALB             GA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ON I-285 EB PAST FLAT SHOALS RD.
            MULTIPLE CARS WERE HIT IN ACCIDENT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800815

THIEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
542 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW CANTON            34.26N  84.50W
08/09/2018                   CHEROKEE           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ALL LANES ALONG PUCKETT CREEK RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800816

THIEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
544 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ102-092215-
Stewart GA-
544 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN STEWART COUNTY UNTIL 615
PM EDT...

At 544 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Sanford, or 10 miles
northeast of Georgetown...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lumpkin, Troutman, Kimbrough, Sanford, Westville and Providence
Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3193 8480 3192 8481 3192 8491 3195 8496
      3198 8496 3197 8504 3199 8504 3199 8507
      3202 8505 3203 8506 3209 8504 3213 8506
      3215 8503 3202 8465 3196 8464 3192 8466
      3193 8468 3192 8469 3192 8477
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 301DEG 15KT 3200 8498

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
553 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ082>084-095-092230-
Wilkinson GA-Bibb GA-Houston GA-Twiggs GA-
553 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILKINSON...SOUTHEASTERN BIBB...
NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON AND TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 552 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Ripley, or near
Jeffersonville...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jeffersonville, Irwinton, Warner Robins, McIntyre, Danville,
Allentown, Robins Air Force Base, Marion, Tarversville, Bullard,
Houston Lake, Fitzpatrick, Ripley, Huber, District Path, Dry Branch,
Myricks Mill, Elberta, Franklinton and Bonaire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3249 8373 3283 8354 3289 8309 3261 8317
      3248 8344
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 269DEG 18KT 3272 8340

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW LITHIA SPRINGS    33.76N  84.68W
08/09/2018                   DOUGLAS            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN (SOME ON POWERLINES) IN EASTERN
            DOUGLASVILLE AREA INCLUDING 1 TREE DOWN ON I-20
            WESTBOUND AT NORTH COUNTY LINE RD NEAR THE LEE RD EXIT
            BLOCKING MULTIPLE LANES. OTHER LOCATIONS ON TARA CIR,
            TERRY LN, E STONEYBROOK DR, W COUNTY LINE RD, AND
            FLORENCE DR

&&

CORRECTED FATALITIES...INJURIES...REMARKS...SOURCE

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800814

THIEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
556 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ023-025-034-035-092230-
Hall GA-Jackson GA-Barrow GA-Gwinnett GA-
556 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HALL...JACKSON...
BARROW AND NORTHEASTERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 555 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Chateau Elan, or 7
miles northwest of Winder...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Winder, Jefferson, Commerce, Braselton, Auburn, Flowery Branch,
Dacula, Oakwood, Statham, Arcade, Nicholson, Hoschton, Bethlehem,
Pendergrass, Carl, Talmo, Athens-Clarke County, Candler, Fort Yargo
State Park and Chateau Elan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3418 8338 3402 8340 3399 8348 3400 8350
      3399 8350 3394 8359 3395 8392 3421 8391
      3423 8343
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 269DEG 18KT 3407 8383

WIND...50MPH