Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Another round of thunderstorm activity is anticipated today as a
shortwave passes over the area this afternoon and into the early
overnight period. Convection has already begun to fire over the area
ahead of a line of thunderstorms moving eastward towards the area
from Alabama. A boundary is draped across the southern portion of
Georgia and is progged to remain stalled across the area throughout
the remainder of the day. Storms have plenty of instability to work
with as values are quite high this afternoon with SBCAPE and MUCAPE
values exceeding 3000 J/kg. As the eastward moving storm system
interacts with the boundary it could provide a focus for enhanced
thunderstorm activity and the potential for development of strong to
severe storms. Gusty winds appear to be the main threat associated
with any severe storms that occur. With high PWATS of 2 inches or
higher across the area, though, it is also possible for stronger
storms to produce locally heavy rain which could lead to some
isolated flooding concerns, particularly in the vicinity of the
boundary in the southern end of the region.

Model guidance is consistent in indicating that the next shortwave
will enter the area late Friday, bringing about enhanced
thunderstorms chances to north and central Georgia once again
starting in the afternoon and lasting into the early overnight
period. Although the timing of these thunderstorms will depend on
the speed of the shortwave, high-end chance to likely PoPs are
nonetheless expected in the afternoon the evening hours Friday.
PWATs will remain high throughout the area on Friday with many
locations in north Georgia in excess of 2 inches and ample
instability will be present, with SBCAPE and MUCAPE values on the
order of 2000-3000 J/kg. Combined with the upper-level support
provided by the shortwave aloft, expect numerous storms to develop
in association with this disturbance. While generally weak flow
aloft suggests that the risk for severe storms should not be
widespread, the high PAWT values indicate that stronger storms could
produce locally heavy rainfall.

Increased precipitation and cloud coverage associated with these
shortwaves will moderate temperatures somewhat, with high
temperatures trending back to near normal values. However, with high
humidity values as a result of the deep moisture in place over the
area, maximum heat index values could still be on the high side and
even exceed 100 across the southern tier of the CWA.

King

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

The long term period begins with a trough over the eastern US and a
shortwave just to our north, centered just south of the Ohio Valley
into Tennessee and Alabama. The shortwave will continue to exit
the area on Saturday potentially mixing in some slightly drier air
for Saturday afternoon so pops are just slightly lower, but still
in the chance category. Further to the north, a deepening trough
will become a cutoff low centered over the Ohio Valley by Sunday
afternoon (early Sunday for the ECMWF, Sunday afternoon for the
GFS). Regardless, pieces of energy will continue to round the base
of the trough and push into our area helping to provide a focus
for showers and thunderstorms across the area on Sunday through at
least through late on Monday. Similar to most days, strong to
isolated severe storms will be possible with the primary threats
being heavy rain, strong winds, and frequent lightning.

For late Monday/Tuesday, the low will weaken and kick out to the
northeast pushing a cold front through the area by Tuesday. As a
result, pops for Tuesday/Wednesday are in the slight chance range
across much of the area. Differences exist between the models as to
how dry the air filtering in behind the front will be, with the GFS
being the driest. Will continue to monitor trends as pops will
continue to be adjusted. Pops increase again for Thursday afternoon
as another shortwave works its way towards the area.

Temperatures through the extended will be near average with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and low to mid
70s.

Reaves

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Organized TSRA is once again expected to develop and move west to
east across the area late this afternoon and into the evening,
requiring a TEMPO for all TAF sites. Scattered convection is
already developing across the region, which necessitated moving
TEMPO group forward to 19Z for most sites. Most significant
thunderstorm activity looks to impact the metro TAF sites at
around 19-21Z. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are again
expected in the afternoon and evening Friday. Mainly VFR cigs at
035-050 are expected during the afternoon today and Friday
although some MVFR cigs around 025 could be observed with
thunderstorms. Winds expected to be W and less than 10 kts through
the period, with the exception of gusts associated with any
thunderstorms that occur.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on the timing and location of convection.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  90  71  89 /  60  50  40  40
Atlanta         73  88  72  87 /  60  60  40  40
Blairsville     66  82  65  82 /  60  70  40  50
Cartersville    70  86  69  87 /  60  60  30  40
Columbus        74  91  73  90 /  50  60  30  30
Gainesville     71  86  70  86 /  60  60  30  50
Macon           73  92  73  90 /  60  40  20  40
Rome            71  86  69  88 /  60  60  30  40
Peachtree City  72  89  71  88 /  60  60  40  40
Vidalia         75  93  75  92 /  40  30  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
250 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through this
afternoon and evening, especially over western Georgia and
increase in coverage as they move east during the late afternoon
and evening. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging
winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly
during the afternoon and evening. Widespread severe weather is
not anticipated, however, some storms could produce strong winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
237 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ011-019-030-091915-
Chattooga GA-Polk GA-Floyd GA-
237 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHATTOOGA...POLK AND
FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 236 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from New Moon to Piedmont...and moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Rome, Cedartown, Summerville, Rockmart, Aragon, Cave Spring, Shannon,
Lyerly, Menlo, Pinson, Esom Hill, Coosa, Cloudland, James H. Floyd
State Park, Holland, Fish Creek, Etna, Lindale, Tidings and Antioch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3448 8509 3446 8509 3446 8511 3443 8509
      3441 8511 3439 8501 3430 8502 3425 8501
      3421 8502 3421 8505 3408 8505 3408 8502
      3395 8502 3395 8505 3391 8505 3391 8539
      3452 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 275DEG 27KT 3439 8555 3393 8561

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
238 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ096-107-109-091915-
Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-Pulaski GA-
238 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BLECKLEY...
NORTHWESTERN DODGE AND PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 238 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Baileys Park, or near
Hawkinsville...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cochran, Eastman, Hawkinsville, Union, Dubois, Gresston, Plainfield,
Empire, Mobley Crossing, Roddy, Baileys Park, Ocmulgee Banks,
Hartford and Pulaski State Prison.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3204 8329 3205 8331 3208 8330 3209 8331
      3209 8332 3210 8332 3210 8336 3211 8335
      3213 8336 3213 8340 3227 8354 3241 8334
      3227 8305 3226 8305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 312DEG 13KT 3227 8337

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
251 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ048-058-059-091915-
Butts GA-Jasper GA-Newton GA-
251 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BUTTS...SOUTHWESTERN
JASPER AND SOUTHERN NEWTON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 251 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Stark, or near
Jackson...moving southeast at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jackson, Flovilla, Stewart, Calvin, Eudora, Turtle Cove, Worthville,
North Alcovy, Indian Springs State Park, Fincherville and Stark.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3339 8398 3339 8397 3340 8398 3342 8397
      3345 8392 3347 8394 3348 8393 3338 8365
      3318 8382 3320 8384 3319 8385 3320 8388
      3333 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 305DEG 6KT 3336 8390

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
256 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ041-042-091945-
Haralson GA-Carroll GA-
256 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARALSON AND WESTERN CARROLL
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 256 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Esom Hill to Fosters Cross Roads...and moving
east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Carrollton, Buchanan, Bremen, Tallapoosa, Bowdon, Mount Zion, Waco,
Eubank Lake, Bowdon Junction, Tyus, Felton, John Tanner State Park
and Blackjack Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3390 8504 3374 8505 3343 8516 3343 8529
      3390 8539
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 268DEG 25KT 3391 8540 3341 8558

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
304 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ044-055-091930-
Clayton GA-South Fulton GA-
304 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAYTON AND SOUTH FULTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 304 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Union City, or 11
miles northwest of Jonesboro...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Jonesboro, East Point, Union City, Forest Park, Riverdale,
College Park, Morrow, Hapeville, Lake City, Hartsfield-Jackson
Airport, Lake Spivey, Rex, Ellenwood, Fort Gillem and Conley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3368 8442 3366 8436 3365 8435 3365 8429
      3363 8426 3355 8427 3355 8429 3351 8428
      3351 8442 3355 8444 3355 8446 3354 8453
      3368 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 263DEG 17KT 3361 8453

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
315 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ048-057>059-091945-
Butts GA-Jasper GA-Newton GA-Henry GA-
315 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BUTTS...NORTHWESTERN
JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON AND EASTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
EDT...

At 314 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Rocky Plains, or 10
miles southwest of Covington...moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Newborn, Mansfield, Stewart, Eudora, Ola, Turtle Cove, Worthville,
North Alcovy, Starrsville, Fincherville, Oak Hill and Rocky Plains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3355 8403 3357 8400 3353 8368 3353 8367
      3351 8366 3332 8379 3343 8406
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 285DEG 21KT 3347 8396

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH