Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Another round of thunderstorm activity is anticipated today as a
shortwave passes over the area this afternoon and into the early
overnight period. Convection has already begun to fire over the area
ahead of a line of thunderstorms moving eastward towards the area
from Alabama. A boundary is draped across the southern portion of
Georgia and is progged to remain stalled across the area throughout
the remainder of the day. Storms have plenty of instability to work
with as values are quite high this afternoon with SBCAPE and MUCAPE
values exceeding 3000 J/kg. As the eastward moving storm system
interacts with the boundary it could provide a focus for enhanced
thunderstorm activity and the potential for development of strong to
severe storms. Gusty winds appear to be the main threat associated
with any severe storms that occur. With high PWATS of 2 inches or
higher across the area, though, it is also possible for stronger
storms to produce locally heavy rain which could lead to some
isolated flooding concerns, particularly in the vicinity of the
boundary in the southern end of the region.

Model guidance is consistent in indicating that the next shortwave
will enter the area late Friday, bringing about enhanced
thunderstorms chances to north and central Georgia once again
starting in the afternoon and lasting into the early overnight
period. Although the timing of these thunderstorms will depend on
the speed of the shortwave, high-end chance to likely PoPs are
nonetheless expected in the afternoon the evening hours Friday.
PWATs will remain high throughout the area on Friday with many
locations in north Georgia in excess of 2 inches and ample
instability will be present, with SBCAPE and MUCAPE values on the
order of 2000-3000 J/kg. Combined with the upper-level support
provided by the shortwave aloft, expect numerous storms to develop
in association with this disturbance. While generally weak flow
aloft suggests that the risk for severe storms should not be
widespread, the high PAWT values indicate that stronger storms could
produce locally heavy rainfall.

Increased precipitation and cloud coverage associated with these
shortwaves will moderate temperatures somewhat, with high
temperatures trending back to near normal values. However, with high
humidity values as a result of the deep moisture in place over the
area, maximum heat index values could still be on the high side and
even exceed 100 across the southern tier of the CWA.

King

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

The long term period begins with a trough over the eastern US and a
shortwave just to our north, centered just south of the Ohio Valley
into Tennessee and Alabama. The shortwave will continue to exit
the area on Saturday potentially mixing in some slightly drier air
for Saturday afternoon so pops are just slightly lower, but still
in the chance category. Further to the north, a deepening trough
will become a cutoff low centered over the Ohio Valley by Sunday
afternoon (early Sunday for the ECMWF, Sunday afternoon for the
GFS). Regardless, pieces of energy will continue to round the base
of the trough and push into our area helping to provide a focus
for showers and thunderstorms across the area on Sunday through at
least through late on Monday. Similar to most days, strong to
isolated severe storms will be possible with the primary threats
being heavy rain, strong winds, and frequent lightning.

For late Monday/Tuesday, the low will weaken and kick out to the
northeast pushing a cold front through the area by Tuesday. As a
result, pops for Tuesday/Wednesday are in the slight chance range
across much of the area. Differences exist between the models as to
how dry the air filtering in behind the front will be, with the GFS
being the driest. Will continue to monitor trends as pops will
continue to be adjusted. Pops increase again for Thursday afternoon
as another shortwave works its way towards the area.

Temperatures through the extended will be near average with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and low to mid
70s.

Reaves

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Organized TSRA is once again expected to develop and move west to
east across the area late this afternoon and into the evening,
requiring a TEMPO for all TAF sites. Scattered convection is
already developing across the region, which necessitated moving
TEMPO group forward to 19Z for most sites. Most significant
thunderstorm activity looks to impact the metro TAF sites at
around 19-21Z. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are again
expected in the afternoon and evening Friday. Mainly VFR cigs at
035-050 are expected during the afternoon today and Friday
although some MVFR cigs around 025 could be observed with
thunderstorms. Winds expected to be W and less than 10 kts through
the period, with the exception of gusts associated with any
thunderstorms that occur.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on the timing and location of convection.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  90  71  89 /  60  50  40  40
Atlanta         73  88  72  87 /  60  60  40  40
Blairsville     66  82  65  82 /  60  70  40  50
Cartersville    70  86  69  87 /  60  60  30  40
Columbus        74  91  73  90 /  50  60  30  30
Gainesville     71  86  70  86 /  60  60  30  50
Macon           73  92  73  90 /  60  40  20  40
Rome            71  86  69  88 /  60  60  30  40
Peachtree City  72  89  71  88 /  60  60  40  40
Vidalia         75  93  75  92 /  40  30  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
429 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
429 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through this
afternoon and evening, especially over western Georgia and
increase in coverage as they move east during the late afternoon
and evening. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging
winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly
during the afternoon and evening. Widespread severe weather is
not anticipated, however, some storms could produce strong winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
356 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ005>007-012>014-092045-
Gilmer GA-Dawson GA-Gordon GA-Pickens GA-Murray GA-Fannin GA-
356 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILMER...NORTHWESTERN DAWSON...
EASTERN GORDON...PICKENS...MURRAY AND FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

At 355 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Tennga to Folsom...and moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Chatsworth, Jasper, Ellijay, Blue Ridge, Nelson, Eton, East Ellijay,
Morganton, Talking Rock, Fairmount, Ranger, Amicalola Falls State
Park, Crandall, Jones Mill, Cohutta Wilderness, Fausett Lake, Pisgah,
Mineral Bluff, Talmadge and Cherry Log.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3499 8417 3438 8426 3439 8458 3441 8458
      3440 8492 3479 8485 3480 8484 3481 8485
      3486 8484 3487 8482 3491 8483 3499 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 257DEG 18KT 3499 8472 3439 8481

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
357 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ038-050-051-092030-
Taliaferro GA-Oglethorpe GA-Greene GA-
357 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN TALIAFERRO...SOUTHWESTERN
OGLETHORPE AND NORTHERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 357 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Penfield, or 7 miles
north of Greensboro...moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Greensboro, Union Point, Woodville, Siloam, Maxeys, Robinson,
Wrayswood, Greshamville, Daniel Springs, Penfield, Lyneville,
Philomath and Carters Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3348 8294 3361 8335 3362 8335 3362 8336
      3373 8331 3374 8329 3374 8330 3376 8328
      3379 8328 3374 8295 3363 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 284DEG 24KT 3368 8319

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
406 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ059-068>072-081-092045-
Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Upson GA-Crawford GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-Pike GA-
406 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LAMAR...MONROE...
UPSON...NORTHERN CRAWFORD...NORTHERN JONES...SOUTHERN JASPER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 406 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Adgateville to near Juliette to Hannahs Mill...and
moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Thomaston, Barnesville, Forsyth, Gray, Monticello, Yatesville,
Culloden, Aldora, Sunset Village, Lincoln Park, The Rock, Bradley,
Wayside, Atwater, Round Oak, Russellville, Logtown, Sunnyside,
McElheneys Crossroads and Hannahs Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3315 8397 3320 8389 3320 8384 3318 8382
      3319 8381 3321 8383 3325 8382 3332 8372
      3323 8354 3317 8355 3318 8345 3317 8342
      3315 8342 3301 8353 3279 8420 3295 8452
      3296 8453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 290DEG 22KT 3323 8366 3311 8384 3294 8434

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
425 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ085-086-097-098-092100-
Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Johnson GA-Laurens GA-
425 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN EMANUEL...NORTHEASTERN
TREUTLEN...JOHNSON AND NORTHEASTERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
EDT...

At 425 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Scott, or 9 miles
south of Wrightsville...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Swainsboro, Wrightsville, Adrian, Kite, Spann, Covena, Orianna,
Norristown, Lovett, Norristown Junction, Dellwood, Meeks, Brewton,
Blackville, Gillis Springs and Scott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3258 8288 3276 8281 3267 8234 3252 8237
      3240 8254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 294DEG 15KT 3260 8269

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
432 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ032>034-044>046-054-055-057-092115-
Fayette GA-North Fulton GA-Rockdale GA-Cobb GA-Clayton GA-DeKalb GA-
Gwinnett GA-Henry GA-South Fulton GA-
432 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN FAYETTE...
FULTON...WESTERN ROCKDALE...EASTERN
COBB...CLAYTON...DEKALB...WESTERN GWINNETT...NORTHWESTERN HENRY AND
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 431 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Sweat Mountain to Vinings to Palmetto...and moving
east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Atlanta, Marietta, Decatur, Jonesboro, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns
Creek, Alpharetta, Smyrna, Dunwoody, East Point, Duluth, Stockbridge,
Union City, Forest Park, Suwanee, Riverdale, College Park, Fairburn
and Lilburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3371 8462 3374 8458 3376 8459 3384 8455
      3408 8451 3407 8442 3411 8442 3411 8440
      3409 8421 3405 8412 3405 8410 3407 8412
      3408 8411 3408 8407 3385 8404 3349 8418
      3351 8472
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 266DEG 25KT 3405 8446 3385 8450 3353 8466

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
436 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ050-051-092115-
Taliaferro GA-Greene GA-
436 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TALIAFERRO AND GREENE COUNTIES
UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 436 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Union Point, or near
Greensboro...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Greensboro, Crawfordville, Union Point, Woodville, White Plains,
Siloam, Veazey, Robinson, Daniel Springs, Penfield, Lyneville,
Alexander Stephens Park, Sandy Cross and Carters Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3349 8284 3347 8287 3344 8285 3344 8286
      3345 8299 3347 8301 3345 8304 3347 8314
      3359 8333 3375 8326 3370 8312 3371 8305
      3369 8301 3370 8299 3369 8292 3362 8288
      3364 8287 3365 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 287DEG 17KT 3362 8308

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH