Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Another round of thunderstorm activity is anticipated today as a
shortwave passes over the area this afternoon and into the early
overnight period. Convection has already begun to fire over the area
ahead of a line of thunderstorms moving eastward towards the area
from Alabama. A boundary is draped across the southern portion of
Georgia and is progged to remain stalled across the area throughout
the remainder of the day. Storms have plenty of instability to work
with as values are quite high this afternoon with SBCAPE and MUCAPE
values exceeding 3000 J/kg. As the eastward moving storm system
interacts with the boundary it could provide a focus for enhanced
thunderstorm activity and the potential for development of strong to
severe storms. Gusty winds appear to be the main threat associated
with any severe storms that occur. With high PWATS of 2 inches or
higher across the area, though, it is also possible for stronger
storms to produce locally heavy rain which could lead to some
isolated flooding concerns, particularly in the vicinity of the
boundary in the southern end of the region.

Model guidance is consistent in indicating that the next shortwave
will enter the area late Friday, bringing about enhanced
thunderstorms chances to north and central Georgia once again
starting in the afternoon and lasting into the early overnight
period. Although the timing of these thunderstorms will depend on
the speed of the shortwave, high-end chance to likely PoPs are
nonetheless expected in the afternoon the evening hours Friday.
PWATs will remain high throughout the area on Friday with many
locations in north Georgia in excess of 2 inches and ample
instability will be present, with SBCAPE and MUCAPE values on the
order of 2000-3000 J/kg. Combined with the upper-level support
provided by the shortwave aloft, expect numerous storms to develop
in association with this disturbance. While generally weak flow
aloft suggests that the risk for severe storms should not be
widespread, the high PAWT values indicate that stronger storms could
produce locally heavy rainfall.

Increased precipitation and cloud coverage associated with these
shortwaves will moderate temperatures somewhat, with high
temperatures trending back to near normal values. However, with high
humidity values as a result of the deep moisture in place over the
area, maximum heat index values could still be on the high side and
even exceed 100 across the southern tier of the CWA.

King

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

The long term period begins with a trough over the eastern US and a
shortwave just to our north, centered just south of the Ohio Valley
into Tennessee and Alabama. The shortwave will continue to exit
the area on Saturday potentially mixing in some slightly drier air
for Saturday afternoon so pops are just slightly lower, but still
in the chance category. Further to the north, a deepening trough
will become a cutoff low centered over the Ohio Valley by Sunday
afternoon (early Sunday for the ECMWF, Sunday afternoon for the
GFS). Regardless, pieces of energy will continue to round the base
of the trough and push into our area helping to provide a focus
for showers and thunderstorms across the area on Sunday through at
least through late on Monday. Similar to most days, strong to
isolated severe storms will be possible with the primary threats
being heavy rain, strong winds, and frequent lightning.

For late Monday/Tuesday, the low will weaken and kick out to the
northeast pushing a cold front through the area by Tuesday. As a
result, pops for Tuesday/Wednesday are in the slight chance range
across much of the area. Differences exist between the models as to
how dry the air filtering in behind the front will be, with the GFS
being the driest. Will continue to monitor trends as pops will
continue to be adjusted. Pops increase again for Thursday afternoon
as another shortwave works its way towards the area.

Temperatures through the extended will be near average with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s and low to mid
70s.

Reaves

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Organized TSRA is once again expected to develop and move west to
east across the area late this afternoon and into the evening,
requiring a TEMPO for all TAF sites. Scattered convection is
already developing across the region, which necessitated moving
TEMPO group forward to 19Z for most sites. Most significant
thunderstorm activity looks to impact the metro TAF sites at
around 19-21Z. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are again
expected in the afternoon and evening Friday. Mainly VFR cigs at
035-050 are expected during the afternoon today and Friday
although some MVFR cigs around 025 could be observed with
thunderstorms. Winds expected to be W and less than 10 kts through
the period, with the exception of gusts associated with any
thunderstorms that occur.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on the timing and location of convection.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  90  71  89 /  60  50  40  40
Atlanta         73  88  72  87 /  60  60  40  40
Blairsville     66  82  65  82 /  60  70  40  50
Cartersville    70  86  69  87 /  60  60  30  40
Columbus        74  91  73  90 /  50  60  30  30
Gainesville     71  86  70  86 /  60  60  30  50
Macon           73  92  73  90 /  60  40  20  40
Rome            71  86  69  88 /  60  60  30  40
Peachtree City  72  89  71  88 /  60  60  40  40
Vidalia         75  93  75  92 /  40  30  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
429 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
429 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through this
afternoon and evening, especially over western Georgia and
increase in coverage as they move east during the late afternoon
and evening. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging
winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly
during the afternoon and evening. Widespread severe weather is
not anticipated, however, some storms could produce strong winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
508 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW LITHIA SPRINGS    33.76N  84.68W
08/09/2018                   DOUGLAS            GA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN ON I-20 WESTBOUND AT NORTH COUNTY LINE RD
            NEAR THE LEE RD EXIT

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800814

THIEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
508 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ022-023-033>035-045>047-055-057-092200-
Hall GA-North Fulton GA-Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Barrow GA-Clayton GA-
DeKalb GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-Henry GA-
508 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HALL...NORTH
FULTON...NORTHWESTERN WALTON...ROCKDALE...WESTERN BARROW...CLAYTON...
DEKALB...SOUTHERN FORSYTH...GWINNETT AND NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES
UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 508 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Cumming to Lilburn to Irondale...and moving east at 25
mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Atlanta, Gainesville, Lawrenceville, McDonough, Decatur, Conyers,
Cumming, Jonesboro, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta,
Dunwoody, Duluth, Stockbridge, Sugar Hill, Forest Park, Snellville,
Suwanee and Riverdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3423 8378 3416 8378 3413 8382 3408 8378
      3383 8379 3372 8388 3374 8392 3365 8393
      3352 8405 3352 8404 3345 8408 3347 8439
      3352 8443 3365 8439 3365 8435 3367 8438
      3427 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 267DEG 23KT 3420 8415 3388 8417 3350 8436

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
516 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ086-092145-
Emanuel GA-
516 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EMANUEL COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM EDT...

At 516 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Herndon, or 12 miles
west of Millen...moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Garfield and Canoochee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3258 8202 3262 8228 3281 8223 3280 8220
      3281 8220 3281 8217 3282 8215 3280 8214
      3266 8208 3260 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 286DEG 10KT 3277 8216

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
516 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ102-092145-
Stewart GA-
516 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STEWART COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
EDT...

At 516 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Twin Springs, or 9
miles north of Georgetown...moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lumpkin, Richland, Troutman, Omaha, Charles, Kimbrough, Sanford,
Westville, Louvale and Providence Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3193 8480 3192 8491 3195 8496 3198 8496
      3197 8504 3199 8507 3202 8505 3206 8506
      3209 8504 3213 8506 3218 8501 3220 8496
      3221 8498 3222 8497 3222 8493 3223 8492
      3211 8464 3203 8465 3197 8464 3192 8469
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 303DEG 25KT 3203 8509

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
519 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ051-061-062-092145-
Taliaferro GA-Hancock GA-Warren GA-
519 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN TALIAFERRO...
NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK AND WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 519 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Powelton, or 8 miles
south of Crawfordville...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Warrenton, Sparta, Norwood, Sharon, Camak, Springfield, Shoals,
Jewell, Beall Springs, Mayfield, Powelton, Barnett, Reese, Raytown
and Culverton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3331 8260 3330 8264 3327 8269 3326 8275
      3324 8275 3324 8278 3320 8286 3317 8287
      3316 8290 3343 8305 3359 8276 3350 8261
      3345 8259 3341 8255 3335 8255 3336 8254
      3335 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 299DEG 18KT 3343 8284

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
526 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ082-083-095-092200-
Bibb GA-Houston GA-Twiggs GA-
526 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BIBB...NORTHEASTERN
HOUSTON AND TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 526 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Huber, or 10 miles
west of Jeffersonville...moving southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jeffersonville, Warner Robins, Centerville, Danville, Robins Air
Force Base, Marion, Tarversville, Bullard, Houston Lake, Fitzpatrick,
Ripley, Huber, District Path, Dry Branch, Elberta, Bonaire and
Kathleen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3249 8371 3266 8368 3275 8359 3274 8358
      3281 8349 3283 8349 3285 8347 3267 8328
      3260 8324 3250 8340 3250 8341 3249 8341
      3247 8347
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 310DEG 9KT 3268 8352

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH