Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
940 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to work on any remaining
instability this evening. Do expect activity to continue
diminishing in coverage and intensity through midnight. Have
adjusted pops a bit to reflect current trends. Also have had to
tweak the hourly temp grids...due to all of the cold pools left
behind the convection.

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 730 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

While weak surface high pressure is in control, there is plenty of
showers and thunderstorms across TN down through north AL moving
eastward this afternoon. This is all in association with a
shortwave/weak troughing in the mid-levels. There is plenty of
available instability and moisture across our region, thus we
anticipate this activity to move through north GA through the
remainder of the afternoon/evening.  While the effective shear is
weak, it might be enough to see an organized line develop. Based on
the cold pools and looking at Q vectors analysis, if a line develops
late this afternoon, the outflows could drive a faster storm motion
further to the SE. This would then bring some of the activity across
east central GA later this evening. We will have to monitor the
mesoanalysis as we progress through the afternoon. Given this, there
is still quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to storm coverage and
timeline. Storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds,
frequent lightning, small hail and heavy rain being the main
impacts. Most of the activity should shift east of the area by
tonight.

A brief reprieve in precipitation activity is expected overnight
with afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected again tomorrow
afternoon/evening.  A front draped across KY will try to drop south
Thursday night, eventually becoming stalled along the northern tier
of GA Friday morning.

Temperatures will be hot and humid again Thursday afternoon with
heat indices around 101-104 in SE GA, just below heat advisory
criteria.

26

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

The long term period begins with a broad trough over the eastern
US and higher pressure to our south, putting us in nearly zonal
flow with a front draped across the area. This front will provide
forcing for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening
across the area. While the front lingers and stalls across the
area, a developing shortwave to our west on Friday will push into
the area on Saturday/Sunday. The additional forcing leading will
likely lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening on Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, a pocket
of energy moving through the base of the aforementioned trough
will eventually become a cutoff low centered over the Ohio Valley
on Sunday, pushing a cold front across the area most likely on
Monday/Tuesday.

Instability will also be present every afternoon/evening leading to
chance and likely pops across the area through Monday. PWATS through
that time frame are forecast to be in the 1.7 to 2 inch range, so
heavy rain will also be possible with any storms in addition to
damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning.

Although there are still timing differences between the GFS and
ECMWF on the frontal passage, eventually that front pushes through
the area and brings in some drier air. The GFS is just slightly
faster than the ECMWF, pushing the drier air in on Monday
afternoon opposed to much later on Monday into Tuesday. Overall,
Tuesday and Wednesday are shaping up to be the "driest" days of
the extended, especially for northern areas. PWATs are even
forecast to dip below 1 inch as the drier air filters into the
area!

Temperatures through the extended will be near average with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s across much of the area with lows in the
uppers 60s and lower to mid 70s.

Reaves

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the
northern TAF sites through the early evening hours. May have to
look at expanding the tempo group, depending upon whether the
activity in eastern AL weakens or not. The hi-res models don't
have a great handle on the situation. But, do think some weakening
is possible due to the loss of heating, but not confident that the
activity will diminish greatly in coverage. Winds will remain on
the west side through the period. A bit more convective coverage
is expected tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  90  71  89 /  60  60  50  50
Atlanta         72  88  72  87 /  60  70  60  60
Blairsville     65  82  65  82 /  70  60  50  60
Cartersville    71  88  69  86 /  70  70  60  60
Columbus        73  92  74  90 /  40  50  50  60
Gainesville     71  88  71  86 /  60  60  50  60
Macon           73  91  73  91 /  40  50  40  50
Rome            71  88  70  86 /  70  60  60  60
Peachtree City  72  89  71  88 /  60  60  60  60
Vidalia         75  93  74  92 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1147 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1147 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening. Thunderstorms should develop after noon, especially
over north Georgia and increase in coverage as they move south
during the afternoon and evening. Some storms could be strong to
severe with damaging winds, frequent lightning, large hail up to 1
inch in diameter and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly
during the afternoon and evening. Widespread severe weather is
not anticipated, however, some storms could produce strong winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1120 PM EDT WED AUG 08 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E COOPER HEIGHTS      34.80N  85.35W
08/08/2018                   WALKER             GA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE FELL SOUTH OF CHICKAMUGA CAUSING MINOR DAMAGE TO A
            RESIDENCE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800803

THIEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1133 PM EDT WED AUG 08 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW LAFAYETTE          34.69N  85.29W
08/08/2018                   WALKER             GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN OVER POWERLINES ON S CHATTANOOGA ST IN
            LAFAYETTE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800804

THIEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1145 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

GAZ072-073-090415-
Baldwin GA-Jones GA-
1145 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BALDWIN AND NORTHEASTERN JONES
COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM EDT...

At 1145 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Haddock, or 7 miles
east of Gray...moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Milledgeville, Gray, Midway-Hardwick, Meriwether, Bradley, Coopers,
Allenwood, Haddock, Pancras, Scottsboro, Hardwick, Browns Crossing
and Blountsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3298 8311 3301 8313 3301 8315 3299 8318
      3297 8316 3298 8321 3296 8326 3294 8328
      3295 8329 3294 8331 3301 8358 3315 8357
      3316 8314 3311 8311 3308 8312 3306 8310
      3306 8309 3303 8307
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 273DEG 23KT 3305 8341

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1157 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

GAZ084-090430-
Wilkinson GA-
1157 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON COUNTY
UNTIL 1230 AM EDT...

At 1157 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Irwinton...moving
east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Irwinton, Toomsboro and Nicklesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3271 8296 3265 8309 3270 8329 3271 8330
      3280 8329 3282 8297 3279 8295 3276 8296
      3275 8294
TIME...MOT...LOC 0357Z 273DEG 21KT 3274 8322

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1213 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ083-084-097-090445-
Wilkinson GA-Laurens GA-Twiggs GA-
1213 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON...
NORTHWESTERN LAURENS AND EASTERN TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM EDT...

At 1213 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Danville, or 7 miles
southeast of Jeffersonville...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Danville, Montrose, Allentown, Chappells Mill and Nicklesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3255 8301 3256 8321 3258 8323 3256 8327
      3257 8338 3279 8321 3279 8296 3276 8296
      3275 8294 3271 8296 3271 8293 3263 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 274DEG 18KT 3263 8323

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1242 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

GAZ086-098-090515-
Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-
1242 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN EMANUEL AND NORTHEASTERN
TREUTLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM EDT...

At 1242 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Lexsy, or 8 miles
southeast of Swainsboro...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Swainsboro, Twin City, Stillmore, Oak Park, Nunez, Covena, Lexsy,
Norristown, George L Smith State Park and Gillis Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3256 8208 3252 8215 3248 8218
      3242 8219 3237 8223 3234 8229 3242 8267
      3253 8252 3260 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 274DEG 17KT 3249 8227

WIND...40MPH