Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Wilmington, OH

243 
WWUS51 KILN 010638
SVSILN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
138 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

OHC061-010648-
/O.CAN.KILN.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170301T0700Z/
Hamilton OH-
138 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 AM EST for southwestern
and west central Ohio.

LAT...LON 3959 8448 3959 8427 3958 8416 3932 8427
      3929 8436 3932 8453
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 238DEG 67KT 3944 8437 

$$

OHC017-165-010700-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170301T0700Z/
Butler OH-Warren OH-
138 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EST
FOR EASTERN BUTLER AND WESTERN WARREN COUNTIES...

At 138 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Monroe, moving
northeast at 75 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro,
Sharonville, Monroe, Trenton, Franklin, Carlisle, South Middletown,
West Chester, Kings Island, Olde West Chester, Four Bridges, Hunter,
Wetherington, Hughes and State Route 63 at State Route 741.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 22 and 26.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 18 and 40.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 AM EST for southwestern
and west central Ohio.

LAT...LON 3959 8448 3959 8427 3958 8416 3932 8427
      3929 8436 3932 8453
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 238DEG 67KT 3944 8437 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Hatzos

511 
WWUS51 KILN 010644
SVSILN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
144 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

OHC017-165-010654-
/O.CAN.KILN.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170301T0700Z/
Butler OH-Warren OH-
144 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN BUTLER AND WESTERN
WARREN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 AM EST for southwestern
and west central Ohio.

Please report previous wind damage or hail to the National Weather
Service by going to our website at weather.gov/iln and submitting
your report via social media.

LAT...LON 3959 8448 3959 8427 3958 8416 3932 8427
      3929 8436 3932 8453
TIME...MOT...LOC 0642Z 227DEG 62KT 3951 8427 

$$

Hatzos

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
125 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through Wednesday afternoon, as a warm front moves into the area
later today, and a cold front crosses the region tomorrow. Some
of these storms may be severe, and some of them may produce
heavy rain. Behind the cold front, cooler air will move into the
region for the rest of the week. A low pressure system will
bring a chance of snow on Thursday night, with dry weather
expected for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Little change to previous thinking. Area is in a lull. But first
cluster thunderstorms in western Indiana will spread northeast
into the forecast area after 04Z and track across the northern
counties. Meanwhile another cluster near Memphis is forecast to
move northeast into the Tri-State around 06-07Z. Shear remains
highly favorable and will only become more pronounced overnight.
Thermodynamics will become more favorable as well as higher
theta-e air continues to get drawn into the region. All modes
of severe weather remain possible overnight including flash
flooding. Southern counties that saw a good deal of rain during
the day will be especially vulnerable to the flash flood threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Models are somewhat unclear on how much of a break there will be
between the two potential rounds of severe convection -- the
initial round of storms during the overnight hours, and the
linear convection during the early to mid morning. Nonetheless,
there is good model agreement on a squall line / broken line /
QLCS developing along a pre-frontal trough. Before discussing
the line, it is important to note the changes to the environment
in front of it. Behind the initial cluster of convection,
boundary layer flow is expected to veer slightly and increase in
strength, which should allow for a slight bit of low-level
mixing (thus allowing instability to become more purely surface
based). Despite this, the preceding convection may disrupt the
thermodynamic profile aloft, leading to slightly weaker overall
CAPE values in advance of the next round of convection. Wind
flow will remain strong overall, though with slightly weaker
low-level directional shear. Thus, with the second round of
convection, the threat should shift toward damaging winds being
the most significant problem, with a secondary risk of QLCS
tornadoes or marginally severe hail. This risk will continue
through the morning from WNW-to-ESE across the ILN CWA, as the
convection moves forward. The SPC Day 2 outlook includes an ENH
risk ahead of this activity, with convection expected to clear
the forecast area during the late morning or early afternoon.
Heavy rain is certainly possible with these storms as well, but
they should be generally progressive, meaning that an additional
flash flood risk on Wednesday morning may be conditional on
where previous heavy rains have fallen.

Non-diurnal temperatures are an obvious necessity through the
forecast period, and depending on convective timing, the
temperature gradient across the ILN CWA from NW-to-SE by
mid-day Wednesday could be as much as 10-15 degrees.
Temperatures will fall more significantly Wednesday night, and
as a weak wrap-around trough moves through the Great Lakes
early Thursday morning, some light rain or snow showers will be
possible -- mainly north of I-70.

One final concern to mention is that synoptic-scale winds near
and behind the cold frontal passage on Wednesday could be gusty.
This forecast represents a significant increase from the
previous run, with gusts in the 30-35 knot range on Wednesday
afternoon. In fact, a few models (using BUFKIT momentum
transfer) suggest that gusts in the northern CWA may approach 40
knots. This may have to be looked into a little more closely
once the current weather threats have passed.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A return to colder and more winter-like weather is expected during
the immediate long term forecast.

A clipper-like system is still forecast to dive southeast into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Thursday into Thursday night. This will
bring a chance of rain and snow to the region. Precipitation chances
will be highest across the north and will also transition to all
snow overnight Thursday as temperatures fall.

Colder temperatures are in the offing on Friday in the wake of the
weather system as skies becoming partly cloudy. Highs will mostly
be in the 30s.

A ridge of high pressure will quickly push through the region early
Friday night.  Mid level ridging and WAA will be on the surface
ridges heels, which will bring some clouds and a low chance of snow
across the north.

Warmer weather will return for the upcoming weekend as low level
return southerly flow and mid level ridging take hold.

Next main weather system is expected to push through the region
Monday/Tuesday. Temperatures will warm into the 60s with the threat
for showers and thunderstorms increasing Monday/Monday night ahead
of low pressure and a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cluster of thunderstorms has overspread southwest Ohio and
should continue to work its way northeastward over the next
couple of hours. This will lead to fairly persistent
thunderstorms through the predawn hours, especially at the
southern TAF sites. This will result in MVFR to IFR cigs and
vsbys through the first part of the TAF period. Meanwhile, the
convective line associated with the cold front is sagging down
across central Illinois into northwest Indiana, and this should spread
across the TAF sites through mid morning. Given the good
dynamics in place across the region, gusty winds in excess of 40
knots will be possible with some of the thunderstorms through
the morning hours. The cold front will push southeast late this
morning and into early afternoon with pcpn tapering off behind
it. The gradient winds will increase behind the front with gusts
in excess of 30 knots possible into tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible
Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for OHZ060>065-
     070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for INZ058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1158 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

KYZ099-100-OHZ073-074-079>082-088-011700-
Mason-Lewis-Ross-Hocking-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1158 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition to a heavy rain and flash flood threat, the threat for
severe thunderstorms will increase overnight...mainly after 1 A.M.
Several waves of thunderstorms will cross the area later tonight.
These storms will have a damaging wind and large hail threat first
and foremost, and also a chance for an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Thunderstorms will continue to cross the area Wednesday
morning...ending around noon. In addition to a heavy rain and flash
flood threat, these storms may also have a damaging wind and large
hail threat. A tornado cannot be ruled out during the morning hours
as well.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible Wednesday afternoon
behind the surface cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later tonight and through the
morning on Wednesday.

OHZ026-034-035-043>046-052>056-062>065-072-011700-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Champaign-
Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Clinton-
1158 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

In addition to a heavy rain and localized flood threat that
accompanies any showers and thunderstorms, the threat for severe
thunderstorms will increase overnight...mainly after 1 A.M. Several
waves of thunderstorms will cross the area later tonight. These
storms will have a damaging wind and large hail threat first and
foremost, and also a chance for an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will continue to cross the area Wednesday
morning...ending around noon. In addition to a heavy rain and flash
flood threat, these storms may also have a damaging wind and large
hail threat. A tornado cannot be ruled out during the morning hours
as well.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible Wednesday afternoon
behind the surface cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later tonight and Wednesday morning.

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ042-051-060-061-070-071-011700-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Darke-Miami-Preble-Montgomery-
Butler-Warren-
1158 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Several waves of showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area
tonight. Severe thunderstorms appear likely...with the primary
threat being damaging winds and large hail. A few tornadoes will also
be possible. In addition, heavy rain will also be possible, leading
to the potential for localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will continue to cross the area Wednesday
morning...ending by noon. In addition to a heavy rain and localized
flood threat, these storms may also have a damaging wind and large
hail threat. The tornado threat will continue into the morning hours
as well.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible Wednesday afternoon
behind the surface cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed later tonight into Wednesday
morning.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>098-OHZ077-078-011700-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Hamilton-Clermont-
1158 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northern
Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will contain a localized
heavy rain and flash flooding threat, as well as small hail.

More widespread thunderstorm activity is expected after midnight
tonight, and some of these storms will likely be severe. The primary
threats will be large hail and damaging winds, though a few tornadoes
will be possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Wednesday morning showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
area, ending by noon. The threat for severe weather will continue on
Wednesday morning with damaging wind and large hail being the primary
threats. A tornado or two will remain possible through the morning
hours on Wednesday.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible Wednesday afternoon
behind the surface cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed later tonight and Wednesday
morning.

Binau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1219 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KAXV WAPAKONETA APT     40.49N 84.30W
03/01/2017  M55.00 MPH       AUGLAIZE           OH   AWOS

&&

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1234 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S ST. MARYS           40.49N 84.39W
03/01/2017  M48 MPH          AUGLAIZE           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BINAU

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1241 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ091-092-OHZ070-077-010630-
Switzerland IN-Franklin IN-Ripley IN-Ohio IN-Dearborn IN-Boone KY-
Kenton KY-Hamilton OH-Butler OH-
1241 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT OHIO...SOUTHERN FRANKLIN...
RIPLEY...DEARBORN...NORTHWESTERN SWITZERLAND...NORTHERN BOONE...
HAMILTON AND WESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM EST...

At 1240 AM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstormS over portions
of southeast Indiana near Versailles, moving northeast at 65 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Penny size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Hamilton, Fairfield, Covington, Oxford, Norwood, Forest
Park, Reading, Harrison, North College Hill, Wyoming, Cheviot, Villa
Hills, Batesville, Mount Healthy, Dayton, Lawrenceburg, Greendale,
Ludlow and Aurora.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 1 and 8.
 I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 149 and 171.
 I-74 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 19.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 1 and 11.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

LAT...LON 3920 8544 3927 8530 3928 8530 3954 8471
      3913 8439 3911 8444 3912 8447 3910 8450
      3888 8520 3892 8520 3891 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 0540Z 236DEG 55KT 3907 8525

Binau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1259 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KEDJ BELLEFONTAINE APT  40.37N 83.82W
03/01/2017  M47.00 MPH       LOGAN              OH   AWOS

&&

HATZOS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
116 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

KYZ093-OHZ070-071-077-078-010645-
Campbell KY-Hamilton OH-Clermont OH-Warren OH-Butler OH-
116 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CAMPBELL...
EASTERN HAMILTON...SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER...CLERMONT AND SOUTHERN WARREN
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM EST...

At 115 AM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from Blue Ash to Alexandria, moving northeast at 70 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Mason, Lebanon, Norwood, Fort Thomas, Sharonville, Blue
Ash, Loveland, Springdale, Reading, Montgomery, Madeira, Alexandria,
Milford, Deer Park, Dayton, Claryville, Forestville, West Chester and
Amelia.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 7 and 41.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 12 and 24.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when thunderstorms approach.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3934 8447 3950 8399 3896 8404 3888 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0615Z 233DEG 61KT 3924 8440 3898 8436

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
123 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

INZ066-OHZ061-062-070-071-077-010700-
Franklin IN-Hamilton OH-Montgomery OH-Warren OH-Butler OH-Greene OH-
123 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN...
NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON...BUTLER...NORTHERN WARREN...SOUTHWESTERN
GREENE AND SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM EST...

At 123 AM EST, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Dunlap,
moving northeast at 70 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Nickel size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Hamilton, Kettering, Middletown, Beavercreek, Fairfield,
Mason, Miamisburg, Lebanon, Forest Park, Springboro, Monroe, Trenton,
Franklin, Springdale, Harrison, Bellbrook, Moraine, Carlisle and
Oakwood.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-74 in Ohio between mile markers 1 and 9.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 19 and 54.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3957 8452 3957 8448 3960 8448 3979 8416
      3950 8398 3919 8474 3927 8482 3930 8482
      3931 8485 3935 8488
TIME...MOT...LOC 0623Z 223DEG 64KT 3929 8464

Binau