Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Wilmington, OH

122 
WGUS51 KILN 011051
FFWILN
OHC047-071-073-129-131-141-011415-
/O.EXT.KILN.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-170301T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
551 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Fayette County in central Ohio...
  Hocking County in central Ohio...
  Southern Pickaway County in central Ohio...
  Northern Pike County in southwestern Ohio...
  Northeastern Highland County in southwestern Ohio...
  Ross County in southwestern Ohio...

* Until 915 AM EST.

* At 549 AM EST, radar indicated that thunderstorms had produced 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to three inches of rain have 
  already fallen. Another two inches of rain is possible. Public has 
  reported high water on U.S. 50 east of Liberty. Runoff from this 
  excessive rainfall will cause flash flooding to occur.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Chillicothe, Logan, Greenfield, Waverly, Nelsonville, Kingston,
  Bainbridge, New Holland, Hocking Hills State Park, Pike Lake,
  Cynthiana, North Folk Village, Starr, Frankfort, Londonderry,
  Laurelville, Clarksburg, Murray City, Adelphi and Tarlton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

To report flash flooding, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3947 8217 3947 8228 3938 8229 3939 8251
      3937 8252 3937 8275 3917 8277 3914 8279
      3911 8338 3923 8336 3926 8339 3932 8340
      3938 8338 3947 8331 3955 8330 3955 8273
      3957 8273 3958 8226 3956 8226 3955 8216

$$

Haines

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
125 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through Wednesday afternoon, as a warm front moves into the area
later today, and a cold front crosses the region tomorrow. Some
of these storms may be severe, and some of them may produce
heavy rain. Behind the cold front, cooler air will move into the
region for the rest of the week. A low pressure system will
bring a chance of snow on Thursday night, with dry weather
expected for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Little change to previous thinking. Area is in a lull. But first
cluster thunderstorms in western Indiana will spread northeast
into the forecast area after 04Z and track across the northern
counties. Meanwhile another cluster near Memphis is forecast to
move northeast into the Tri-State around 06-07Z. Shear remains
highly favorable and will only become more pronounced overnight.
Thermodynamics will become more favorable as well as higher
theta-e air continues to get drawn into the region. All modes
of severe weather remain possible overnight including flash
flooding. Southern counties that saw a good deal of rain during
the day will be especially vulnerable to the flash flood threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Models are somewhat unclear on how much of a break there will be
between the two potential rounds of severe convection -- the
initial round of storms during the overnight hours, and the
linear convection during the early to mid morning. Nonetheless,
there is good model agreement on a squall line / broken line /
QLCS developing along a pre-frontal trough. Before discussing
the line, it is important to note the changes to the environment
in front of it. Behind the initial cluster of convection,
boundary layer flow is expected to veer slightly and increase in
strength, which should allow for a slight bit of low-level
mixing (thus allowing instability to become more purely surface
based). Despite this, the preceding convection may disrupt the
thermodynamic profile aloft, leading to slightly weaker overall
CAPE values in advance of the next round of convection. Wind
flow will remain strong overall, though with slightly weaker
low-level directional shear. Thus, with the second round of
convection, the threat should shift toward damaging winds being
the most significant problem, with a secondary risk of QLCS
tornadoes or marginally severe hail. This risk will continue
through the morning from WNW-to-ESE across the ILN CWA, as the
convection moves forward. The SPC Day 2 outlook includes an ENH
risk ahead of this activity, with convection expected to clear
the forecast area during the late morning or early afternoon.
Heavy rain is certainly possible with these storms as well, but
they should be generally progressive, meaning that an additional
flash flood risk on Wednesday morning may be conditional on
where previous heavy rains have fallen.

Non-diurnal temperatures are an obvious necessity through the
forecast period, and depending on convective timing, the
temperature gradient across the ILN CWA from NW-to-SE by
mid-day Wednesday could be as much as 10-15 degrees.
Temperatures will fall more significantly Wednesday night, and
as a weak wrap-around trough moves through the Great Lakes
early Thursday morning, some light rain or snow showers will be
possible -- mainly north of I-70.

One final concern to mention is that synoptic-scale winds near
and behind the cold frontal passage on Wednesday could be gusty.
This forecast represents a significant increase from the
previous run, with gusts in the 30-35 knot range on Wednesday
afternoon. In fact, a few models (using BUFKIT momentum
transfer) suggest that gusts in the northern CWA may approach 40
knots. This may have to be looked into a little more closely
once the current weather threats have passed.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A return to colder and more winter-like weather is expected during
the immediate long term forecast.

A clipper-like system is still forecast to dive southeast into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Thursday into Thursday night. This will
bring a chance of rain and snow to the region. Precipitation chances
will be highest across the north and will also transition to all
snow overnight Thursday as temperatures fall.

Colder temperatures are in the offing on Friday in the wake of the
weather system as skies becoming partly cloudy. Highs will mostly
be in the 30s.

A ridge of high pressure will quickly push through the region early
Friday night.  Mid level ridging and WAA will be on the surface
ridges heels, which will bring some clouds and a low chance of snow
across the north.

Warmer weather will return for the upcoming weekend as low level
return southerly flow and mid level ridging take hold.

Next main weather system is expected to push through the region
Monday/Tuesday. Temperatures will warm into the 60s with the threat
for showers and thunderstorms increasing Monday/Monday night ahead
of low pressure and a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cluster of thunderstorms has overspread southwest Ohio and
should continue to work its way northeastward over the next
couple of hours. This will lead to fairly persistent
thunderstorms through the predawn hours, especially at the
southern TAF sites. This will result in MVFR to IFR cigs and
vsbys through the first part of the TAF period. Meanwhile, the
convective line associated with the cold front is sagging down
across central Illinois into northwest Indiana, and this should spread
across the TAF sites through mid morning. Given the good
dynamics in place across the region, gusty winds in excess of 40
knots will be possible with some of the thunderstorms through
the morning hours. The cold front will push southeast late this
morning and into early afternoon with pcpn tapering off behind
it. The gradient winds will increase behind the front with gusts
in excess of 30 knots possible into tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible
Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for OHZ060>065-
     070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for INZ058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1158 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

KYZ099-100-OHZ073-074-079>082-088-011700-
Mason-Lewis-Ross-Hocking-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1158 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition to a heavy rain and flash flood threat, the threat for
severe thunderstorms will increase overnight...mainly after 1 A.M.
Several waves of thunderstorms will cross the area later tonight.
These storms will have a damaging wind and large hail threat first
and foremost, and also a chance for an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Thunderstorms will continue to cross the area Wednesday
morning...ending around noon. In addition to a heavy rain and flash
flood threat, these storms may also have a damaging wind and large
hail threat. A tornado cannot be ruled out during the morning hours
as well.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible Wednesday afternoon
behind the surface cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later tonight and through the
morning on Wednesday.

OHZ026-034-035-043>046-052>056-062>065-072-011700-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Champaign-
Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Clinton-
1158 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

In addition to a heavy rain and localized flood threat that
accompanies any showers and thunderstorms, the threat for severe
thunderstorms will increase overnight...mainly after 1 A.M. Several
waves of thunderstorms will cross the area later tonight. These
storms will have a damaging wind and large hail threat first and
foremost, and also a chance for an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will continue to cross the area Wednesday
morning...ending around noon. In addition to a heavy rain and flash
flood threat, these storms may also have a damaging wind and large
hail threat. A tornado cannot be ruled out during the morning hours
as well.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible Wednesday afternoon
behind the surface cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later tonight and Wednesday morning.

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ042-051-060-061-070-071-011700-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Darke-Miami-Preble-Montgomery-
Butler-Warren-
1158 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Several waves of showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area
tonight. Severe thunderstorms appear likely...with the primary
threat being damaging winds and large hail. A few tornadoes will also
be possible. In addition, heavy rain will also be possible, leading
to the potential for localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will continue to cross the area Wednesday
morning...ending by noon. In addition to a heavy rain and localized
flood threat, these storms may also have a damaging wind and large
hail threat. The tornado threat will continue into the morning hours
as well.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible Wednesday afternoon
behind the surface cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed later tonight into Wednesday
morning.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>098-OHZ077-078-011700-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Hamilton-Clermont-
1158 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northern
Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will contain a localized
heavy rain and flash flooding threat, as well as small hail.

More widespread thunderstorm activity is expected after midnight
tonight, and some of these storms will likely be severe. The primary
threats will be large hail and damaging winds, though a few tornadoes
will be possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Wednesday morning showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
area, ending by noon. The threat for severe weather will continue on
Wednesday morning with damaging wind and large hail being the primary
threats. A tornado or two will remain possible through the morning
hours on Wednesday.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible Wednesday afternoon
behind the surface cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed later tonight and Wednesday
morning.

Binau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
241 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE BRIGHT            39.15N 84.83W
03/01/2017                   DEARBORN           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE AREAS OF WATER OVER ROADWAYS, BUCKLING ROADS AND
            FLOODING BASEMENTS AS REPORTED BY GREENDALE POLICE.

&&

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
250 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

OHZ064-065-073-074-082-010830-
Pike OH-Fairfield OH-Ross OH-Hocking OH-Pickaway OH-
250 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FAIRFIELD...HOCKING...
PICKAWAY...NORTHWESTERN PIKE AND ROSS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM EST...

At 250 AM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near South Bloomfield to near Bainbridge, moving east
at 70 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Pea size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Chillicothe, Circleville, Logan, Canal Winchester,
Nelsonville, Ashville, Baltimore, South Bloomfield, Bremen, Kingston,
Williamsport, Pleasantville, Bainbridge, Hide-A-Way Hills, Logan Elm
Village, Hocking Hills State Park, Cynthiana, North Folk Village and
Commercial Point.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when thunderstorms approach.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If these storms become
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

LAT...LON 3947 8217 3947 8228 3938 8229 3939 8251
      3937 8252 3937 8275 3919 8277 3915 8336
      3980 8307 3980 8283 3983 8280 3987 8247
      3984 8247 3983 8240 3975 8240 3974 8237
      3960 8238 3959 8226 3956 8226 3955 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 0750Z 249DEG 64KT 3972 8305 3924 8327

Binau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
251 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W CHEVIOT             39.16N 84.67W
03/01/2017                   HAMILTON           OH   PUBLIC

            THREE TO SIX INCHES OF STANDING AND FLOWING WATER AROUND
            A HOUSE.

&&

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
252 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>095-OHZ077-010845-
Switzerland IN-Ripley IN-Ohio IN-Dearborn IN-Boone KY-Carroll KY-
Owen KY-Kenton KY-Campbell KY-Gallatin KY-Grant KY-Hamilton OH-
252 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT OHIO...SOUTHEASTERN
RIPLEY...SOUTHERN DEARBORN...SWITZERLAND...EASTERN CARROLL...
KENTON...NORTHERN CAMPBELL...BOONE...NORTHERN GRANT...NORTH CENTRAL
OWEN...GALLATIN AND CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM EST...

At 252 AM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Moores Hill to 6 miles north of Carrollton,
moving east at 50 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Pea size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Covington, Independence, Norwood, Erlanger, Fort Thomas,
Newport, Madeira, Edgewood, Alexandria, Elsmere, Cheviot, Fort
Mitchell, Villa Hills, Highland Heights, Milford, Taylor Mill,
Bellevue, Deer Park and Fort Wright.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 54 and 77.
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 12.
 I-74 in Ohio between mile markers 13 and 19.
 I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 156 and 191.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 9.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If these storms become
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

LAT...LON 3916 8505 3921 8428 3880 8450 3879 8453
      3875 8452 3859 8461 3875 8520 3890 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 0752Z 271DEG 43KT 3915 8500 3877 8520

Binau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
305 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 AM     TSTM WND GST     KRZT CHILLICOTHE APT    39.44N 83.02W
03/01/2017  M58.00 MPH       ROSS               OH   AWOS

&&

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
317 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

KYZ089-090-092-094>096-010845-
Pendleton KY-Carroll KY-Owen KY-Kenton KY-Gallatin KY-Grant KY-
317 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CARROLL...SOUTHERN
KENTON...GRANT...OWEN...SOUTHWESTERN PENDLETON AND GALLATIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 345 AM EST...

At 317 AM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from 8 miles south of Carrollton to 7 miles southeast of
New Castle to near Taylorsville, moving northeast at 75 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Owenton, Kentucky Speedway,
Glencoe, Sanders, Corinth, Sparta, Worthville, Monterey, Gratz,
Stewartsville, Elk Lake, Northcutt, Wheatley, Bracht, New Liberty,
New Columbus and Elliston.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 39 and 66.
 I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 143 and 167.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If these storms become
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3838 8490 3842 8488 3843 8493 3846 8492
      3843 8494 3843 8496 3849 8499 3852 8498
      3851 8503 3856 8501 3856 8506 3860 8508
      3858 8521 3864 8524 3880 8469 3878 8466
      3883 8458 3864 8442 3851 8450 3834 8479
TIME...MOT...LOC 0817Z 241DEG 70KT 3856 8517 3838 8505 3801 8525

Binau