Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
649 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will continue through the first part of the day
as a cold front pushes southeast across the area. Behind the
front, a cooler airmass will settle into the region through the
end of the work week. An upper level disturbance will bring a
chance of rain and snow showers to the region Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Thunderstorms are continuing to train northeast across southern
portions of our area early this morning. This is in an area of
good low level convergence along the nose of a 50 knot 925 mb
jet that will shift off to the east through mid morning. Weak
instabilities are also in place across our area with mucapes or
around 500 j/kg or so. We have been slowly eroding away the cin
across the area this morning and these storms have become more
surface based in the last couple of hours. Meanwhile, the
convective line associated with the cold front is pushing
east across central Indiana and into northwest Ohio. Hi res
cams are in decent agreement pushing this line through our area
fairly quickly this morning and have trended the forecast
accordingly. The severe threat will continue across our area
until this line moves through. Behind the front, the pressure
gradient will increase through the afternoon hours with winds
increasing and becoming gusty. We may approach wind advisory
criteria across our northern areas but will hold off on anything
at this point as it looks marginal. A few instability showers
may also develop through this afternoon, mainly across the
north and will cover this with just some lower chance pops later
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A few showers may linger across our north into this evening and
with the gradient remaining fairly tight, winds will likely stay
up for awhile into tonight. A clipper type system will drop down
from the northwest Thursday into Thursday night. This will lead
to an increasing chance of showers heading into Thursday
evening, especially across norther portions of our fa. Low
level thermal fields suggest that any pcpn will start off as
rain Thursday afternoon before transitioning to snow from north
to south Thursday evening. There could be some light snow
accumulations with this, mainly across northern portions of our
area where maybe an inch or so will be possible across our far
north. The pcpn should taper off later Thursday night with dry
weather on Friday as high pressure builds in.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models continue to hint at a very weak short wave dropping down
into our area from the northwest Friday night into Saturday,
but vary in there timing and placement. With it being weak and
with some uncertainty, will just bring in some slight chance
pops across the area with this. Ptype looks to be mostly snow
but if it hangs around long enough into the day on Saturday, we
will warm up enough for any lingering pcpn to mix with some
rain.

Brief mid level ridging will work east across the area on
Sunday before the flow becomes more amplified as a trough
approaches from the west. This will eventually help push a cold
front east across our area Monday night into Tuesday. Some WAA
pcpn will develop ahead of this Sunday night with more
widespread pcpn spreading in ahead of the front Monday into
Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Squall line pushing quickly east into western Ohio and across
northern Kentucky attm. This will affect the TAFs in the first
hour or so of the period with gusty winds likely, especially at
the southern TAF sites. More stratiform type pcpn will then
linger for a few hours behind this line before coming to an
end. Cigs will likely fluctuate between low VFR and MVFR through
much of the rest of the day with some spotty instability
showers developing later this afternoon. As the gradient
tightens through the afternoon hours, wind gusts in the 25 to 35
knot range will be possible, possibly lingering into this
evening.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible
Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ060>065-
     070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EST this afternoon for INZ058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...JGL

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