Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Albuquerque, NM

592 
WWUS55 KABQ 092232
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
432 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMC043-092241-
/O.CAN.KABQ.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-170509T2245Z/
Sandoval-
432 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail and
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 PM MDT for
north central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3523 10652 3522 10668 3543 10688 3551 10664
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 150DEG 23KT 3540 10674 

$$

50

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
320 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe thunderstorms will continue this evening over portions of
eastern New Mexico, with showers and high mountain snow showers
along with thunderstorms otherwise tonight. The upper level low
pressure system responsible for the unsettled weather and cooler
than average temperatures will slowly cross New Mexico from west to
east Wednesday, with showers and thunderstorms persisting, although
severe storms are less likely. Somewhat drier and warmer weather is
expected by Friday and Saturday, but a few showers and storms may
develop over the high terrain and along the Texas and eastern New
Mexico border. Westerly breezes look to shove the dryline east of
New Mexico early next week although temperatures will cool some in
the west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The ongoing active weather will continue through this evening with
the focus for severe weather shifting into the eastern plains.
Showers and storms look to persist through the overnight as the
center of circulation lifts into west central New Mexico by 12Z
Wednesday. Small amounts of high terrain snow are possible over the
Contdvd and northern mountains as temperatures aloft fall to 0 to -3
deg C west central and southwest. Locally heavy rain may also
accompany the storms, so stay away from arroyos and ditches.

The upper low will meander over New Mexico Wednesday and Wednesday
night, with the focus for precipitation slowly shifting to the north
central and northeast. Wrap around moisture on the back side of the
departing low will keep clouds and some precipitation going into
Thursday although the west and south will see less activity with
time. Some snow accumulations are possible over the higher terrain
of northern mountains Wednesday night but forecast amounts mostly
below advisory criteria athough high mountain passes could be a
little slick or snow covered. A surface boundary will push down the
east side of the state Thursday/Thursday night, although
precipitation doesn't look to be much of a factor, low clouds may
push up against the east slopes of the central mt chain Thursday
night and an east wind into the Rio Grande Valley could develop.
This could set the stage for a few showers or storms along the
higher terrain under the transitory upper ridge Friday as
temperatures warm towards average. Lingering moisture and above
average temperatures Saturday may also sprout a few mountain cells,
which could propagate into the plains as southwest flow aloft
increases.

After potential for a few dryline storms Sunday, moisture is shunted
east of New Mexico early next week by westerly breezes. Thereafter,
another upper low pressure system drops into the Great Basin for
what could be another round of more active weather.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm activity has fired up over northern and central NM this
afternoon, with much of the activity focused over the central mtn
chain. Thunderstorm activity will continue to spread east through
the evening over the east plains, with the potential for severe
storms over the east plains tonight. Meanwhile, a mid-level dry slot
will continue to limit thunderstorm activity over western NM with
better storm coverage towards the Four Corners region. Shower
activity over the western half will increase again overnight as the
center of the low moves towards west-central NM.

The center of the low is forecast to track over central NM Wednesday
and exit to north TX and OK Thursday. Increased precipitation
chances continue across NM Wednesday, with the best chance for the
most wetting precipitation over western and northern NM. Mixing hgts
and vent rates fall sharply Wednesday and Thursday as the low tracks
over NM, before improving Friday. Daytime temperatures fall to 10-15
degrees below average Wednesday, warming a few degrees Thursday.
Dewpoints also remain broadly in the 30s across NM Wednesday and
Thursday.

As the low exits the area late day Thursday overnight Friday a
backdoor front will bring breezy east canyon winds into the central
Rio Grande Valley early Friday morning. A high amplitude ridge
begins to build in Friday and through the weekend, bringing in drier
southwest flow. Vent rates and mixing hgts improve as the low exits
Friday. Moisture levels fall with minimum humidity values falling
below 15 percent for the weekend across the west. Winds stay
relatively calm Saturday across the west, being the limiting factor
for critical fire conditions. Winds pick up a bit more Sunday
allowing for brief critical conditions during the afternoon. Dry SW
flow continues into early next week before long range models
indicate another low pressure system entering the region toward the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

Thunderstorm activity over the north and central areas will continue
through today with severe thunderstorms likely. This activity will
spread onto the eastern plains this evening and through the night.
meanwhile drier weather will prevail west of the central and south-
central mtns until tonight when the center of an upper low
approaches increasing precipitation chances along the continental
divide westward. Winds will stay gusty through the afternoon, and
will weaken overnight. MVFR/IFR low clouds across east-central and
northeast areas will develop early Wednesday morning in the wake of
overnight precipitation.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  42  62  41  74 /  40  40  30  10
Dulce...........................  35  59  33  69 /  50  70  50  40
Cuba............................  32  53  38  67 /  40  70  60  30
Gallup..........................  35  57  34  72 /  50  50  20   5
El Morro........................  30  52  32  68 /  40  60  20  10
Grants..........................  32  55  36  71 /  40  50  20  10
Quemado.........................  34  56  36  69 /  60  50  20   5
Glenwood........................  35  64  41  78 /  30  40  10   0
Chama...........................  32  55  31  64 /  70  80  70  50
Los Alamos......................  42  57  39  66 /  60  60  60  30
Pecos...........................  35  55  36  64 /  60  60  40  40
Cerro/Questa....................  33  57  33  63 /  70  80  80  40
Red River.......................  30  50  29  55 /  80  80  80  60
Angel Fire......................  31  53  32  57 /  70  70  70  50
Taos............................  34  58  32  65 /  60  70  60  20
Mora............................  35  54  35  61 /  70  60  40  40
Espanola........................  38  61  35  72 /  50  50  40  20
Santa Fe........................  38  58  36  66 /  60  60  50  30
Santa Fe Airport................  40  61  39  69 /  50  50  40  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  42  60  43  71 /  40  40  40  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  45  63  46  73 /  30  40  30   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  40  65  42  75 /  30  40  30   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  41  63  42  74 /  30  40  30   5
Los Lunas.......................  43  65  44  75 /  30  40  30   0
Rio Rancho......................  43  62  44  74 /  30  40  30   5
Socorro.........................  45  65  47  76 /  20  40  20   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  39  56  38  67 /  50  50  40  20
Tijeras.........................  40  58  41  69 /  40  50  40  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  35  60  39  69 /  40  40  30  10
Clines Corners..................  37  57  38  65 /  60  40  30  10
Gran Quivira....................  39  59  42  69 /  30  30  30  10
Carrizozo.......................  41  63  45  72 /  20  30  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  39  56  41  64 /  30  30  10  10
Capulin.........................  41  59  39  57 /  60  50  60  50
Raton...........................  44  63  41  63 /  60  60  50  40
Springer........................  43  64  41  66 /  60  50  40  30
Las Vegas.......................  40  57  37  63 /  70  50  30  30
Clayton.........................  49  68  44  62 /  60  50  30  30
Roy.............................  45  63  41  64 /  70  40  30  30
Conchas.........................  48  69  47  71 /  70  30  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  47  67  47  71 /  60  30  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  51  72  47  72 /  70  30  20  20
Clovis..........................  52  73  46  71 /  60  20  10  10
Portales........................  53  74  48  73 /  60  20   5  10
Fort Sumner.....................  50  71  49  73 /  60  20  20  10
Roswell.........................  51  77  50  80 /  30  10   5  10
Picacho.........................  45  69  47  74 /  20  10   5  10
Elk.............................  38  63  43  68 /  20  10   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
449 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017

NMZ501>540-101100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
449 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern and
central New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today in portions of
northwestern, central, and eastern New Mexico. In northwestern New
Mexico, damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary threat,
while central and eastern areas of the state will also have the
potential for heavy downpours and large hail. A couple of isolated
tornadoes cannot be ruled out in central to eastern New Mexico.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Some strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be possible on
Wednesday, mainly in northeastern New Mexico.

In addition a few to several inches of high elevation snowfall will
be possible on the highest peaks above 10,000 feet Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

52

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 PM MDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             7 N PINTADA             34.98N 105.05W
05/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       GUADALUPE          NM   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY KRQE ALONG I-40 NEAR
            EXIT 252

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701908

FONTENOT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
323 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMZ537-092200-
De Baca County-
323 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DE BACA COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MDT...

At 323 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Mesa, or 33 miles southwest of Fort Sumner, moving
north at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern De
Baca County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for southeastern
and east central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3399 10450 3399 10453 3402 10472 3438 10471
      3429 10434
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 191DEG 32KT 3409 10460

40

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
330 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMZ511-519-092215-
Jemez Mountains-Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
330 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 329 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mariposa, or 10 miles northwest of Bernalillo, moving north at 40
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Rio Rancho, San Ysidro, Mariposa, Zia Pueblo, Jemez
Pueblo and Ponderosa.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 PM MDT for
north central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3567 10656 3536 10658 3532 10672 3555 10686
      3558 10686
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 169DEG 35KT 3544 10665

Hergert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
337 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMZ515-527-528-092215-
Far Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Raton
Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
337 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM MDT...

At 337 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles west of Raton Crews Airport, or 18 miles west of Raton, moving
north at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Colfax County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 PM MDT for
northeastern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3653 10457 3653 10481 3699 10502 3700 10500
      3700 10460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 161DEG 27KT 3680 10475

KJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
347 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMZ501-503-504-092230-
Northwest Plateau-Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands-
347 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SAN JUAN COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 346 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northeast of El Huerfano Trading Post, or 16 miles southeast of
Bloomfield, moving north at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bloomfield, Aztec, Turley and Archuleta.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 10764 3646 10781 3682 10806 3690 10771
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 181DEG 25KT 3655 10775

KJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
403 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMZ504-511-092230-
Northwest Highlands-Jemez Mountains-
403 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM MDT...

At 403 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Jemez Springs, or 19 miles south of Cuba, moving
northwest at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cuba.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 PM MDT for
north central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3573 10682 3569 10692 3593 10717 3604 10694
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 151DEG 39KT 3575 10692

50