Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Albuquerque, NM

620 
WWUS55 KABQ 091706
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1106 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMC057-091715-
/O.CAN.KABQ.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-170509T1745Z/
Torrance-
1106 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN TORRANCE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3507 10593 3504 10599 3504 10612 3526 10623
      3531 10592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 164DEG 24KT 3511 10606 

$$

NMC049-091745-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-170509T1745Z/
Santa Fe-
1106 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN SANTA FE COUNTY...

At 1105 AM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stanley, or 7
miles north of Moriarty, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Edgewood, Cedar Grove and Stanley. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 10593 3504 10599 3504 10612 3526 10623
      3531 10592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 164DEG 24KT 3511 10606 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Guyer

967 
WWUS55 KABQ 091739
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1139 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMC049-091749-
/O.EXP.KABQ.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-170509T1745Z/
Santa Fe-
1139 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SANTA FE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 AM MDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 PM MDT for
central and north central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3507 10593 3504 10599 3504 10612 3526 10623
      3531 10592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 165DEG 24KT 3532 10613 

$$

KJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
600 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Dissipating showers north of the I-40 corridor will continue
northward into CO. Meanwhile, MVFR/IFR cigs will dominate terminal
sites east of the central mtn chain through 18Z as Gulf moisture
continues surging northward. Another aftn of strong to severe
thunderstorms will develop across eastern and northern NM. Central
and western areas will see a mix of dry/wet showers today because of
a mid level dry slot surging northward west of the central mtn chain.
Cloud to ground lighting with heavy downpours and brief MVFR cigs
will accompany wetter storms north and east. Gusty and erratic winds
are expected near all storm activity.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous low pressure system is slowly shifting east northeast
over the Gulf of California, and will continue to impact New Mexico
weather over the next couple of days as it slowly moves into the
state. Breezy south southeast winds are expected today with
increased moisture having invaded the eastern half of the state
overnight. As the aforementioned low pressure system slowly enters
southern Arizona, areas of precipitation develop ahead of the system
into New Mexico today. There is potential for some strong to severe
thunderstorms, over central to eastern New Mexico today, but the
threat will be highest over the eastern plains of the state. Large
hail, gusty downburst winds, and brief heavy downpours will be the
primary threats with these stronger storms, but tornadic activity is
also possible. Scattered storms will still impact western New Mexico,
but overall precipitation amounts are expected to be lighter today.
Temperature readings will run below average today, due to increased
moisture, clouds, and precipitation. On Wednesday the low pressure
system will cross into New Mexico, keeping increased cloud cover,
periodic showers and thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures in the
forecast. Temperatures are then expected to warm back to normal by
this weekend with mostly drier conditions taking shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Active pattern is on tap for today and Wednesday as the Baja low
inches toward southern AZ late this afternoon and gradually tracks
northeast into NM tomorrow. Shower and thunderstorm activity has
lasted into the early morning hours, although turning much more
elevated and sparse compared to yesterday afternoon/evening. Ahead of
the low, the flow aloft is beginning to turn more diffluent with some
healthy divergence also expected to develop over northeast NM late
today as the speed max orients itself on the southeastern periphery
of the low.

The introduction of stronger large scale ascent will be complemented
today by deepening boundary layer moisture over central to eastern
NM due to advection in east southeasterly surface flow. While some
central zones will see the higher dewpoints/moisture mix back east
this afternoon, there should be sufficient moisture and instability
for scattered to numerous storms over north central NM, including the
Jemez and Tusas/San Juans. The east southeasterly surface flow will
turn more south southeasterly this afternoon, but along and just east
of the central mountain chain, sufficient veering with height is
expected amongst wind profiles. This will feed storms with ample 0-6
km bulk shear, as much as 40-60 kt in some northeastern locations,
and also decent 0-3 km helicity values, perhaps enough for a few
isolated tornadoes. Have kept severe wording in forecast today over
many central to eastern zones, and the damaging thunderstorm wind
threat might even sneak into some northwestern zones today.

An active overnight period could shape up for the eastern plains too,
with the severe threat continuing. NAM model indicates nocturnal
convection, perhaps in a quasi-linear orientation, continuing with
locally heavy rainfall a possibility.

Into Wednesday, the low will come into NM with the 00Z NAM indicating
a track slightly farther south than yesterday's run, and also south
of today's GFS and European counterpart runs. Precipitable water
values are not all that high, but still scattered to numerous storm
coverage is expected. Some drying associated with the top-down mixing
of a dry slot could limit storm coverage in the southeastern quadrant
of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. Steep lapse rates will
persist in the northeastern plains, and this coupled with the
placement of the surface low there could keep sufficient
shear/instability for a continued, albeit lower-topped, severe
threat.

The upper low will migrate into the OK/TX panhandles Wednesday night,
having filled in and weakened considerably. The focus for
precipitation Wednesday night and Thursday morning will shift to the
north central to northeastern zones of NM. With 700 mb temperatures
hovering around 0 to -1 C, a few to several inches of snow at and
above 10,000 feet is expected between now and Thursday morning.
Temperatures will actually rise several degrees Thursday, but will
still fall short of seasonal averages in the central to eastern
zones.

A surface front on the back side of the low is expected to spill
into the plains of NM Thursday, eventually sliding into the Rio
Grande valley and toward the continental divide by Friday morning.
This will not alter temperatures too much, but it could offer a
gap/canyon wind for favored central locales. Any precipitation
chances of Friday would be low compared to previous days, however
some upslope and possible weak surface/moisture convergence could
yield some showers/storms over the northern mountains of NM.

Into Saturday, an upper ridge over the central to southern plains of
the U.S. will remain intact while south southwesterly flow prevails
in NM. Deep boundary layer mixing could yield some weak and high-
based convection Saturday, most likely in the form of virga over the
western and northern high terrain.

Thereafter southwesterly flow aloft looks to be the takeaway signal
over NM until the middle of next week when another deep low is
forecast to approach closer to NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop this aftn
along and east of the central mtn chain as Gulf moisture continues
surging northward. Some Gulf moisture will seep west of the mtn
chain allowing storm coverage to expand into portions of north-
western NM. Again, strong to severe storms will favor eastern and
northern NM where heavy rainfall, frequent cloud to ground lighting
and gusty and erratic winds will occur.

A mid level dry slot surging northward over the SW mtns, through the
middle RGV into portions of the Cont-DVD will develop a mixture of
wet and dry thunderstorm over the area. Greater chances for wetting
showers for those areas will be this evening as Pacific moisture
follows the upper low as it moves into western NM tonight.

More shower and thunderstorm activity will persist Wed as the
Pacific low crosses NM before exiting into northern TX Wed night
into Thurs. Most shower activity will shift north-ward along and
north of the I-40 corridor. Cooler and wetter conditons, with snow
chances across northern and western mtn peaks, will prevail Wed and
Thurs from wrap around energy associated with the exiting upper low.
The exiting low will also develop a back door cold front that will
sweep down the eastern plains Wed evening through Thurs, keeping
temperatures below normal and developing more shower chances across
northern NM.

Upper level ridging will build over the state Fri and Sat, allowing
the return of warmer and mostly drier conditions into early next
week. Some residual moisture will linger across the mtns before
drying out next week. Drier and warmer conditons will be followed by
increasing SW breezes which will lead to possible fire weather
concerns Sun-Wed.

32

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Thunderstorms will continue northward across the NC Mtns and the NE
Plains into CO before activity tapers off before sunrise. Gusty east
winds have already begun at KABQ from dissipating convective storms
in the east. Stronger east canyon winds will develop after 06Z,
although timing of peak gusts is a challenge. Look for gap winds
around 35-40kts. MVFR/IFR cigs have already begun developing across
the EC and SE Plains and will continue overnight as MVFR/IFR cigs
shift northward. Another round of strong to severe storms will
develop across the eastern plains again this aftn with MVFR cigs near
storm activity.

32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
449 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017

NMZ501>540-101100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
449 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern and
central New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today in portions of
northwestern, central, and eastern New Mexico. In northwestern New
Mexico, damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary threat,
while central and eastern areas of the state will also have the
potential for heavy downpours and large hail. A couple of isolated
tornadoes cannot be ruled out in central to eastern New Mexico.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Some strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be possible on
Wednesday, mainly in northeastern New Mexico.

In addition a few to several inches of high elevation snowfall will
be possible on the highest peaks above 10,000 feet Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

52

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
753 AM MDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     HAIL             7 W FRUITLAND           36.74N 108.52W
05/09/2017  M1.00 INCH       SAN JUAN           NM   TWITTER FEED

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701893

GUYER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
928 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMZ511-091600-
Jemez Mountains-
928 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN RIO ARRIBA AND
NORTHEASTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM MDT...

At 927 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jemez Springs, or 20 miles southwest of Los Alamos, moving north
northwest at 25 mph.

Penny size hail, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and a locally heavy
downpour will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jemez Springs, Fenton Lake State Park, Jemez State Monument and
Ponderosa.

&&

LAT...LON 3568 10648 3563 10669 3596 10688 3604 10656
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 161DEG 23KT 3573 10662

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
953 AM MDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 AM     HAIL             7 NNE JEMEZ SPRINGS     35.87N 106.64W
05/09/2017  E0.75 INCH       SANDOVAL           NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701894

KJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1014 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMZ511-091715-
Jemez Mountains-
1014 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTY
UNTIL 1115 AM MDT...

At 1014 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Kewa Pueblo, or 16 miles north of Bernalillo, moving
north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and heavy rain will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jemez Springs, Jemez State Monument and Ponderosa.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 10647 3551 10643 3546 10646 3544 10656
      3577 10675 3584 10661
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 164DEG 17KT 3555 10652

KJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1027 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMZ511-518-519-521-091715-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Santa Fe Metro Area-Jemez Mountains-Middle
Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
1027 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANDOVAL...
SOUTHWESTERN SANTA FE AND BERNALILLO COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM MDT...

At 1026 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Golden, or 14 miles east of Bernalillo, moving north at 35 mph.
Other strong thunderstorms were located near Sandia Park also moving
north at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with these storms along with very
heavy rainfall.

Locations impacted include...
Santo Domingo Pueblo, Tijeras, Cedar Crest, San Felipe Pueblo, Kewa
Pueblo, Santa Ana Pueblo, Sandia Park, San Antonito, Domingo and
Canoncito in Bernalillo County.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 178 and 180.
 Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 244 and 261.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 10619 3510 10641 3551 10660 3557 10628
TIME...MOT...LOC 1626Z 178DEG 39KT 3525 10632

KJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1053 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMZ510-511-517-091800-
San Juan Mountains-Lower Chama River Valley-Jemez Mountains-
1053 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA COUNTY UNTIL
NOON MDT...

At 1053 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Youngsville, or 26 miles south of Tierra Amarilla,
moving north at 25 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
El Vado, El Vado Lake State Park, Canjilon, Ghost Ranch and Cebolla.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 10651 3621 10672 3669 10685 3670 10636
TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 189DEG 24KT 3632 10661

KJ