River Flood Warning 2, NWS Albuquerque, NM

936 
WGUS85 KABQ 091949
FLSABQ
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
149 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in New 
Mexico...
 
  Rio Ojo Caliente Below La Madera affecting Rio Arriba County 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Additional information is available at 
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=abq.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio or other media outlets for the 
latest information on this situation.

&&

NMC039-100749-
/O.EXT.KABQ.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170515T0130Z/
/LMDN5.1.ER.170509T0755Z.170510T1200Z.170514T1330Z.NR/
149 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rio Ojo Caliente Below La Madera.
* At  1:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 6.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise 
  to near 7.8 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will contiune to 
  rise above flood stage at night and fall slightly below flood stage 
  in the afternoon through Saturday and should fall below flood stage 
  by Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Farm and pasture land is being inundated, and
  irrigation channels and gates may be severly damaged if high flows 
  persist.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 7.7 feet 
  on Jul 8 1998.


&&

LAT...LON 3638 10603 3621 10602 3610 10614 3612 10615
 3625 10608 3638 10607            



$$
54/Fontenot

220 
WGUS85 KABQ 100323
FLSABQ
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
923 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in New 
Mexico...
 
  Rio Ojo Caliente Below La Madera affecting Rio Arriba County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Additional information is available at 
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=abq.

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio or other media outlets for the 
latest information on this situation.

&&

NMC039-100353-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170515T0130Z/
/LMDN5.N.ER.170509T0755Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
923 PM MDT Tue May 9 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Rio Ojo Caliente Below La Madera.
* At  9:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 6.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 6.8 feet 
  Thursday morning. The river is expected to remain around the action 
  stage of 6.5 feet through the weekend.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Farm and pasture land is being inundated, and
  irrigation channels and gates may be severly damaged if high flows 
  persist.
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 6.8 feet 
  on Apr 20 2017.


&&

LAT...LON 3638 10603 3621 10602 3610 10614 3612 10615
 3625 10608 3638 10607            



$$

54

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
600 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Dissipating showers north of the I-40 corridor will continue
northward into CO. Meanwhile, MVFR/IFR cigs will dominate terminal
sites east of the central mtn chain through 18Z as Gulf moisture
continues surging northward. Another aftn of strong to severe
thunderstorms will develop across eastern and northern NM. Central
and western areas will see a mix of dry/wet showers today because of
a mid level dry slot surging northward west of the central mtn chain.
Cloud to ground lighting with heavy downpours and brief MVFR cigs
will accompany wetter storms north and east. Gusty and erratic winds
are expected near all storm activity.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous low pressure system is slowly shifting east northeast
over the Gulf of California, and will continue to impact New Mexico
weather over the next couple of days as it slowly moves into the
state. Breezy south southeast winds are expected today with
increased moisture having invaded the eastern half of the state
overnight. As the aforementioned low pressure system slowly enters
southern Arizona, areas of precipitation develop ahead of the system
into New Mexico today. There is potential for some strong to severe
thunderstorms, over central to eastern New Mexico today, but the
threat will be highest over the eastern plains of the state. Large
hail, gusty downburst winds, and brief heavy downpours will be the
primary threats with these stronger storms, but tornadic activity is
also possible. Scattered storms will still impact western New Mexico,
but overall precipitation amounts are expected to be lighter today.
Temperature readings will run below average today, due to increased
moisture, clouds, and precipitation. On Wednesday the low pressure
system will cross into New Mexico, keeping increased cloud cover,
periodic showers and thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures in the
forecast. Temperatures are then expected to warm back to normal by
this weekend with mostly drier conditions taking shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Active pattern is on tap for today and Wednesday as the Baja low
inches toward southern AZ late this afternoon and gradually tracks
northeast into NM tomorrow. Shower and thunderstorm activity has
lasted into the early morning hours, although turning much more
elevated and sparse compared to yesterday afternoon/evening. Ahead of
the low, the flow aloft is beginning to turn more diffluent with some
healthy divergence also expected to develop over northeast NM late
today as the speed max orients itself on the southeastern periphery
of the low.

The introduction of stronger large scale ascent will be complemented
today by deepening boundary layer moisture over central to eastern
NM due to advection in east southeasterly surface flow. While some
central zones will see the higher dewpoints/moisture mix back east
this afternoon, there should be sufficient moisture and instability
for scattered to numerous storms over north central NM, including the
Jemez and Tusas/San Juans. The east southeasterly surface flow will
turn more south southeasterly this afternoon, but along and just east
of the central mountain chain, sufficient veering with height is
expected amongst wind profiles. This will feed storms with ample 0-6
km bulk shear, as much as 40-60 kt in some northeastern locations,
and also decent 0-3 km helicity values, perhaps enough for a few
isolated tornadoes. Have kept severe wording in forecast today over
many central to eastern zones, and the damaging thunderstorm wind
threat might even sneak into some northwestern zones today.

An active overnight period could shape up for the eastern plains too,
with the severe threat continuing. NAM model indicates nocturnal
convection, perhaps in a quasi-linear orientation, continuing with
locally heavy rainfall a possibility.

Into Wednesday, the low will come into NM with the 00Z NAM indicating
a track slightly farther south than yesterday's run, and also south
of today's GFS and European counterpart runs. Precipitable water
values are not all that high, but still scattered to numerous storm
coverage is expected. Some drying associated with the top-down mixing
of a dry slot could limit storm coverage in the southeastern quadrant
of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. Steep lapse rates will
persist in the northeastern plains, and this coupled with the
placement of the surface low there could keep sufficient
shear/instability for a continued, albeit lower-topped, severe
threat.

The upper low will migrate into the OK/TX panhandles Wednesday night,
having filled in and weakened considerably. The focus for
precipitation Wednesday night and Thursday morning will shift to the
north central to northeastern zones of NM. With 700 mb temperatures
hovering around 0 to -1 C, a few to several inches of snow at and
above 10,000 feet is expected between now and Thursday morning.
Temperatures will actually rise several degrees Thursday, but will
still fall short of seasonal averages in the central to eastern
zones.

A surface front on the back side of the low is expected to spill
into the plains of NM Thursday, eventually sliding into the Rio
Grande valley and toward the continental divide by Friday morning.
This will not alter temperatures too much, but it could offer a
gap/canyon wind for favored central locales. Any precipitation
chances of Friday would be low compared to previous days, however
some upslope and possible weak surface/moisture convergence could
yield some showers/storms over the northern mountains of NM.

Into Saturday, an upper ridge over the central to southern plains of
the U.S. will remain intact while south southwesterly flow prevails
in NM. Deep boundary layer mixing could yield some weak and high-
based convection Saturday, most likely in the form of virga over the
western and northern high terrain.

Thereafter southwesterly flow aloft looks to be the takeaway signal
over NM until the middle of next week when another deep low is
forecast to approach closer to NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop this aftn
along and east of the central mtn chain as Gulf moisture continues
surging northward. Some Gulf moisture will seep west of the mtn
chain allowing storm coverage to expand into portions of north-
western NM. Again, strong to severe storms will favor eastern and
northern NM where heavy rainfall, frequent cloud to ground lighting
and gusty and erratic winds will occur.

A mid level dry slot surging northward over the SW mtns, through the
middle RGV into portions of the Cont-DVD will develop a mixture of
wet and dry thunderstorm over the area. Greater chances for wetting
showers for those areas will be this evening as Pacific moisture
follows the upper low as it moves into western NM tonight.

More shower and thunderstorm activity will persist Wed as the
Pacific low crosses NM before exiting into northern TX Wed night
into Thurs. Most shower activity will shift north-ward along and
north of the I-40 corridor. Cooler and wetter conditons, with snow
chances across northern and western mtn peaks, will prevail Wed and
Thurs from wrap around energy associated with the exiting upper low.
The exiting low will also develop a back door cold front that will
sweep down the eastern plains Wed evening through Thurs, keeping
temperatures below normal and developing more shower chances across
northern NM.

Upper level ridging will build over the state Fri and Sat, allowing
the return of warmer and mostly drier conditions into early next
week. Some residual moisture will linger across the mtns before
drying out next week. Drier and warmer conditons will be followed by
increasing SW breezes which will lead to possible fire weather
concerns Sun-Wed.

32

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Thunderstorms will continue northward across the NC Mtns and the NE
Plains into CO before activity tapers off before sunrise. Gusty east
winds have already begun at KABQ from dissipating convective storms
in the east. Stronger east canyon winds will develop after 06Z,
although timing of peak gusts is a challenge. Look for gap winds
around 35-40kts. MVFR/IFR cigs have already begun developing across
the EC and SE Plains and will continue overnight as MVFR/IFR cigs
shift northward. Another round of strong to severe storms will
develop across the eastern plains again this aftn with MVFR cigs near
storm activity.

32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
449 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017

NMZ501>540-101100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
449 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern and
central New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today in portions of
northwestern, central, and eastern New Mexico. In northwestern New
Mexico, damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary threat,
while central and eastern areas of the state will also have the
potential for heavy downpours and large hail. A couple of isolated
tornadoes cannot be ruled out in central to eastern New Mexico.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Some strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be possible on
Wednesday, mainly in northeastern New Mexico.

In addition a few to several inches of high elevation snowfall will
be possible on the highest peaks above 10,000 feet Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

52

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
726 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMZ501-091400-
Northwest Plateau-
726 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SAN JUAN COUNTY
UNTIL 800 AM MDT...

At 726 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Burnham, or 37 miles northwest of Crownpoint,
moving north at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burnham.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 10829 3610 10855 3653 10859 3654 10826
TIME...MOT...LOC 1326Z 177DEG 30KT 3619 10841

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
753 AM MDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     HAIL             7 W FRUITLAND           36.74N 108.52W
05/09/2017  M1.00 INCH       SAN JUAN           NM   TWITTER FEED

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701893

GUYER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
928 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMZ511-091600-
Jemez Mountains-
928 AM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN RIO ARRIBA AND
NORTHEASTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM MDT...

At 927 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jemez Springs, or 20 miles southwest of Los Alamos, moving north
northwest at 25 mph.

Penny size hail, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and a locally heavy
downpour will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jemez Springs, Fenton Lake State Park, Jemez State Monument and
Ponderosa.

&&

LAT...LON 3568 10648 3563 10669 3596 10688 3604 10656
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 161DEG 23KT 3573 10662

44