Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Albuquerque, NM

459 
WWUS55 KABQ 090427
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1027 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

NMC019-047-090445-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0035.000000T0000Z-170509T0445Z/
San Miguel-Guadalupe-
1027 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM MDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL AND NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES...

At 1026 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles north of
Newkirk, or 26 miles northeast of Santa Rosa, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of south
central San Miguel and northeastern Guadalupe Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather
including extremely large hail, destructive straight line winds and
tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter, such as an interior room,
a bathroom or closet or basement.

Quarter sized hail has been reported with this storm. Accumulations 
of hail on roads can create very slick and hazardous driving 
conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 10425 3507 10436 3527 10443 3529 10420
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 192DEG 22KT 3520 10432 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Shoemake

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
536 PM MDT Mon May 8 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Thunderstorm impacts are likely this evening at KROW and KTCC and
possible at KLVS and KSAF, with potential for large hail. High based
convection may enhance easterly winds at KABQ this evening. Timing
of strongest easterly gap/canyon wind at KABQ hard to nail down
overnight, but will likely see gusts to between 35-40kts for a
period. Otherwise, MVFR conditions will develop overnight at KLVS,
KTCC and KROW, with potential for a few hours of IFR conditions at
KLVS. Another round of potentially severe storms forecast Tuesday
afternoon, with short-lived MVFR conditions likely in/near storms.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 PM MDT Mon May 8 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous upper level low currently found over the northern Baja
region will slowly track over the Southwest area including northern
and central New Mexico through most of this week. Precipitation in
the form of higher elevation snow, severe weather and heavier rain
will occur during this event although favor northern and eastern
areas the most. High temperatures will also be below normal through
Thursday. A warming trend will start up on Friday and last through
Monday next week due to ridging.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SPC expanded the severe weather threat this morning and this jives
with the significant moisture advection originating from the high
plains and Gulf region. With the upper low currently over the
northern Baja...a severe weather outbreak signature is very possible
late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Lots of significant
wind shear combined with heavy juice and upper level diffluence
usually spells unusual activity. A watch issuance is likely.

Made some tweaks to the modeled PoP and temp fields but didn't make
may big changes. Models are pretty similar and the continuity has
been there as well. Adjusted high temps lower than model guidance
across some northern areas Tue/Wed due to heavy cloud cover and the
upper low position. Raised overnight lows slightly due to cloud cover
and higher dewpoints. Did reduced QPF numbers along the east slopes
of the Sangres but that is the bulls eye area and expect amounts up
to 1.5 inches and perhaps even higher. Snow is relegated to the
higher peaks so impact will be much less but looking at some heftier
amounts around Santa Fe Baldy. Perhaps over 1 foot. Folks recreating
in the back country will need to take note of the expected changing
weather conditions there. Model timing with the departing low still
looks to be intact and for Thur.

Models continue to show transitory ridging Friday through Monday.
Temperatures will warm accordingly and went a little above model
guidance for highs during this period due to deeper southerly flow
and height rises. Cant rule out some drier storms favoring the
northern mtns.

The next low is progged for the latter half of next week. Suspect
the dryline would become active across the east during that period
and some wind issues elsewhere. Perhaps some northern mtn
precipitation as well.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Pacific low off the northern Baja Coast will bring in breezy and
gusty south winds across NM today. Winds will reach 15-25 mph across
the area, with occasional gusts 35-45 mph possible. Divergence aloft
will destabilize the atmosphere to allow for afternoon thunderstorm
activity, initially firing up over the northern mtns. Storm activity
will expand later this afternoon, with the potential for isolated
severe storms over the eastern plains. Erratic gusty winds with
frequent cloud to ground lightning can be expected with thunderstorms
today. The strongest storms will be capable of 60 mph wind gusts and
hail size of one inch or greater. Thunderstorms that develop in the
west will be mostly dry. Storm motion will be from the S to N at
15-25 mph. Breezy conditions and RH below 15 percent across much of
the west will allow for a couple hours of critical fire conditions
over the SE portion of NM Fire Zone 101 from Mt. Taylor north to Hwy
550.

Overnight, Gulf moisture will continue to push west, thanks to the
strong upper low to our southwest. This will set up strong gap winds
through the central mtns into the Rio Grande Valley, including the
ABQ metro area. Tuesday will see another round of afternoon
thunderstorm activity, shifted a bit further north and east. Mixing
hgts and vent rates drop considerable Tuesday across the northern
and central mtn chain.

The center of the low moves over NM slowly Wednesday into Thursday,
keeping mixing hgts poor to fair across NM. Much cooler temperatures
filter into NM Wednesday helping to keep RH above critical for the
remainder of the week. Colder temperatures and wrap around moisture
should allow for the possibility of high elevation snow atop the
northern mtn peaks Wednesday night into Thursday morning. As the low
pushes off into the U.S. central plains Friday, a high amplitude
ridge begins to build in for the weekend. A drying and warming trend
will take place for the weekend, with minimum RH expected to also
drop below 15 percent. This could allow for critical fire conditions
to develop over western NM for the weekend, although winds look to
be the limiting factor at this time.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

50

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1049 AM MDT Mon May 8 2017

NMZ501>540-091100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
1049 AM MDT Mon May 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 3pm and 11pm
MDT across the eastern third of New Mexico. This includes the I-25
corridor from just east of Las Vegas to Raton Pass as well as the I40
corridor from Clines to the Texas state line. The main threats will
be large and very large hail up to 2.00 inches in diameter and wind
gusts of 60 mph or higher. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out
across the east central and southeast plains.

In western New Mexico, a couple of hours of localized critical fire
weather conditions will be possible, mainly around the continental
divide this afternoon as winds strengthen with low humidity. In
addition, a few stray showers and dry thunderstorms producing very
little rainfall, but strong wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible in
western New Mexico today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected again across
eastern New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon's and evening's
with large hail and damaging winds possible. The highest risk will be
in Curry and Roosevelt Counties on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
709 PM MDT MON MAY 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TORNADO          6 NNE ROY               36.03N 104.15W
05/08/2017                   HARDING            NM   STORM CHASER

            MEDIA STORM CHASER REPORTED A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN NORTH OF
            ROY

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701888

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
715 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

NMZ538-090145-
Chaves County Plains-
715 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM MDT...

At 715 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Dexter, or 18 miles south of Roswell, moving north
at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roswell, Roswell Correctional Facility and Midway.

This includes Highway 285 between Mile Markers 83 and 104.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
southeastern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3300 10445 3303 10469 3345 10481 3342 10431
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 182DEG 36KT 3311 10458

34

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
806 PM MDT MON MAY 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     HAIL             15 ESE PUERTO DE LUNA   34.73N 104.38W
05/08/2017  M1.00 INCH       GUADALUPE          NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701889

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
857 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

NMZ532>534-537-090345-
Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-Quay County-De Baca
County-
857 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL...NORTH
CENTRAL DE BACA...WEST CENTRAL QUAY AND NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE
COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM MDT...

At 856 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Santa Rosa, Newkirk, Montoya and Conchas , moving north at 5 to 15
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Santa Rosa, Montoya, Conchas, Conchas Lake State Park, Puerto De
Luna, Newkirk, Santa Rosa Lake State Park and Cuervo.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 274 and 316.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
northeastern and east central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3477 10405 3473 10467 3528 10473 3543 10392
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 186DEG 6KT 3489 10427

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
923 PM MDT MON MAY 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     HAIL             4 W ROSWELL             33.37N 104.60W
05/08/2017  M1.00 INCH       CHAVES             NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701890

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
956 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

NMZ529-532>534-090500-
Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-Northeast Highlands-Quay
County-
956 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL...WESTERN QUAY
AND NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM MDT...

At 955 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Newkirk, Santa Rosa, Anton Chico and Trujillo, moving north at 20
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Santa Rosa, Mosquero, Colonias, Maes, Conchas Lake State Park,
Conchas Dam, Newkirk, Santa Rosa Lake State Park, Cuervo and
Trujillo.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 263 and 311.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
northeastern and east central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3496 10410 3493 10488 3571 10506 3578 10396
      3571 10392
TIME...MOT...LOC 0355Z 168DEG 19KT 3502 10446

CA