Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Albuquerque, NM

464 
WWUS55 KABQ 092038
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
238 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMC047-057-092048-
/O.EXP.KABQ.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-170509T2045Z/
San Miguel-Torrance-
238 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL AND
NORTHEASTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain 
and small hail are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for northeastern
New Mexico.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 PM MDT for
central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3484 10532 3482 10550 3513 10561 3512 10532
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 175DEG 21KT 3498 10545 

$$

KJ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1157 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Thunderstorm activity over the north and central areas will continue
through today with severe thunderstorms likely. This activity will
spread onto the eastern plains this evening and through the night.
Meanwhile drier weather will prevail west of the central and south-
central mtns until tonight when the center of an upper low
approaches increasing precipitation chances along the continental
divide westward. Winds will stay gusty through the afternoon, and
will weaken overnight. MVFR/IFR low clouds across east-central and
northeast areas will develop early Wednesday morning in the wake of
overnight precipitation.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous low pressure system is slowly shifting east northeast
over the Gulf of California, and will continue to impact New Mexico
weather over the next couple of days as it slowly moves into the
state. Breezy south southeast winds are expected today with
increased moisture having invaded the eastern half of the state
overnight. As the aforementioned low pressure system slowly enters
southern Arizona, areas of precipitation develop ahead of the system
into New Mexico today. There is potential for some strong to severe
thunderstorms, over central to eastern New Mexico today, but the
threat will be highest over the eastern plains of the state. Large
hail, gusty downburst winds, and brief heavy downpours will be the
primary threats with these stronger storms, but tornadic activity is
also possible. Scattered storms will still impact western New Mexico,
but overall precipitation amounts are expected to be lighter today.
Temperature readings will run below average today, due to increased
moisture, clouds, and precipitation. On Wednesday the low pressure
system will cross into New Mexico, keeping increased cloud cover,
periodic showers and thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures in the
forecast. Temperatures are then expected to warm back to normal by
this weekend with mostly drier conditions taking shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Active pattern is on tap for today and Wednesday as the Baja low
inches toward southern AZ late this afternoon and gradually tracks
northeast into NM tomorrow. Shower and thunderstorm activity has
lasted into the early morning hours, although turning much more
elevated and sparse compared to yesterday afternoon/evening. Ahead of
the low, the flow aloft is beginning to turn more diffluent with some
healthy divergence also expected to develop over northeast NM late
today as the speed max orients itself on the southeastern periphery
of the low.

The introduction of stronger large scale ascent will be complemented
today by deepening boundary layer moisture over central to eastern
NM due to advection in east southeasterly surface flow. While some
central zones will see the higher dewpoints/moisture mix back east
this afternoon, there should be sufficient moisture and instability
for scattered to numerous storms over north central NM, including the
Jemez and Tusas/San Juans. The east southeasterly surface flow will
turn more south southeasterly this afternoon, but along and just east
of the central mountain chain, sufficient veering with height is
expected amongst wind profiles. This will feed storms with ample 0-6
km bulk shear, as much as 40-60 kt in some northeastern locations,
and also decent 0-3 km helicity values, perhaps enough for a few
isolated tornadoes. Have kept severe wording in forecast today over
many central to eastern zones, and the damaging thunderstorm wind
threat might even sneak into some northwestern zones today.

An active overnight period could shape up for the eastern plains too,
with the severe threat continuing. NAM model indicates nocturnal
convection, perhaps in a quasi-linear orientation, continuing with
locally heavy rainfall a possibility.

Into Wednesday, the low will come into NM with the 00Z NAM indicating
a track slightly farther south than yesterday's run, and also south
of today's GFS and European counterpart runs. Precipitable water
values are not all that high, but still scattered to numerous storm
coverage is expected. Some drying associated with the top-down mixing
of a dry slot could limit storm coverage in the southeastern quadrant
of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. Steep lapse rates will
persist in the northeastern plains, and this coupled with the
placement of the surface low there could keep sufficient
shear/instability for a continued, albeit lower-topped, severe
threat.

The upper low will migrate into the OK/TX panhandles Wednesday night,
having filled in and weakened considerably. The focus for
precipitation Wednesday night and Thursday morning will shift to the
north central to northeastern zones of NM. With 700 mb temperatures
hovering around 0 to -1 C, a few to several inches of snow at and
above 10,000 feet is expected between now and Thursday morning.
Temperatures will actually rise several degrees Thursday, but will
still fall short of seasonal averages in the central to eastern
zones.

A surface front on the back side of the low is expected to spill
into the plains of NM Thursday, eventually sliding into the Rio
Grande valley and toward the continental divide by Friday morning.
This will not alter temperatures too much, but it could offer a
gap/canyon wind for favored central locales. Any precipitation
chances of Friday would be low compared to previous days, however
some upslope and possible weak surface/moisture convergence could
yield some showers/storms over the northern mountains of NM.

Into Saturday, an upper ridge over the central to southern plains of
the U.S. will remain intact while south southwesterly flow prevails
in NM. Deep boundary layer mixing could yield some weak and high-
based convection Saturday, most likely in the form of virga over the
western and northern high terrain.

Thereafter southwesterly flow aloft looks to be the takeaway signal
over NM until the middle of next week when another deep low is
forecast to approach closer to NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop this aftn
along and east of the central mtn chain as Gulf moisture continues
surging northward. Some Gulf moisture will seep west of the mtn
chain allowing storm coverage to expand into portions of north-
western NM. Again, strong to severe storms will favor eastern and
northern NM where heavy rainfall, frequent cloud to ground lighting
and gusty and erratic winds will occur.

A mid level dry slot surging northward over the SW mtns, through the
middle RGV into portions of the Cont-DVD will develop a mixture of
wet and dry thunderstorm over the area. Greater chances for wetting
showers for those areas will be this evening as Pacific moisture
follows the upper low as it moves into western NM tonight.

More shower and thunderstorm activity will persist Wed as the
Pacific low crosses NM before exiting into northern TX Wed night
into Thurs. Most shower activity will shift north-ward along and
north of the I-40 corridor. Cooler and wetter conditons, with snow
chances across northern and western mtn peaks, will prevail Wed and
Thurs from wrap around energy associated with the exiting upper low.
The exiting low will also develop a back door cold front that will
sweep down the eastern plains Wed evening through Thurs, keeping
temperatures below normal and developing more shower chances across
northern NM.

Upper level ridging will build over the state Fri and Sat, allowing
the return of warmer and mostly drier conditions into early next
week. Some residual moisture will linger across the mtns before
drying out next week. Drier and warmer conditons will be followed by
increasing SW breezes which will lead to possible fire weather
concerns Sun-Wed.

32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
449 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017

NMZ501>540-101100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
449 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern and
central New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today in portions of
northwestern, central, and eastern New Mexico. In northwestern New
Mexico, damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary threat,
while central and eastern areas of the state will also have the
potential for heavy downpours and large hail. A couple of isolated
tornadoes cannot be ruled out in central to eastern New Mexico.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Some strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms will be possible on
Wednesday, mainly in northeastern New Mexico.

In addition a few to several inches of high elevation snowfall will
be possible on the highest peaks above 10,000 feet Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

52

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
120 PM MDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     TORNADO          CLINES CORNERS          35.01N 105.67W
05/09/2017                   TORRANCE           NM   NMDOT

            BRIEF TORNADO REPORTED NW OF CLINES CORNERS DOT

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701903

FONTENOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
124 PM MDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     HAIL             TURLEY                  36.75N 107.76W
05/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       SAN JUAN           NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL 3 INCHES DEEP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701904

KJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
129 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMZ512-514-515-092000-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo
Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
129 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL AND EAST
CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM MDT...

At 128 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pecos, or 17 miles east of Santa Fe, moving north at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pecos, Tererro, Upper Colonias, Cowles, Rociada, Lower Colonias and
Glorieta.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 303 and 306.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 PM MDT for
north central and northeastern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3551 10560 3552 10572 3586 10576 3584 10536
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 196DEG 17KT 3559 10566

KJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
142 PM MDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             PECOS                   35.58N 105.68W
05/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            1 INCH HAIL LASTED FROM 130 PM TO 138 PM MDT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701905

CHJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
144 PM MDT TUE MAY 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TORNADO          8 NNE NOGAL             33.66N 105.65W
05/09/2017                   LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701906

GUYER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
217 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

NMZ538-092045-
Chaves County Plains-
217 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM MDT...

At 216 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
entering south central Chaves County, or 14 miles south of Roswell,
moving north at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Heavy rain will also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Roswell, Dexter, Hagerman, Lake Arthur, Bitter Lake Wildlife Refuge,
Bottomless Lakes State Park, Greenfield, Roswell Correctional
Facility and Midway.

This includes Highway 285 between Mile Markers 79 and 116.

&&

LAT...LON 3350 10473 3350 10428 3296 10432 3296 10478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 186DEG 49KT 3317 10450

Guyer