Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Albuquerque, NM

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WWUS55 KABQ 090155
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
755 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

NMC011-019-090215-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-170509T0215Z/
De Baca-Guadalupe-
755 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MDT
FOR NORTHERN DE BACA AND NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES...

At 755 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 15 miles south of
Newkirk, or 25 miles north of Fort Sumner, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northern De Baca and northeastern Guadalupe Counties.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 303 and 307.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 10418 3469 10442 3502 10441 3509 10414
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 203DEG 15KT 3484 10424 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
536 PM MDT Mon May 8 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Thunderstorm impacts are likely this evening at KROW and KTCC and
possible at KLVS and KSAF, with potential for large hail. High based
convection may enhance easterly winds at KABQ this evening. Timing
of strongest easterly gap/canyon wind at KABQ hard to nail down
overnight, but will likely see gusts to between 35-40kts for a
period. Otherwise, MVFR conditions will develop overnight at KLVS,
KTCC and KROW, with potential for a few hours of IFR conditions at
KLVS. Another round of potentially severe storms forecast Tuesday
afternoon, with short-lived MVFR conditions likely in/near storms.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 PM MDT Mon May 8 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous upper level low currently found over the northern Baja
region will slowly track over the Southwest area including northern
and central New Mexico through most of this week. Precipitation in
the form of higher elevation snow, severe weather and heavier rain
will occur during this event although favor northern and eastern
areas the most. High temperatures will also be below normal through
Thursday. A warming trend will start up on Friday and last through
Monday next week due to ridging.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SPC expanded the severe weather threat this morning and this jives
with the significant moisture advection originating from the high
plains and Gulf region. With the upper low currently over the
northern Baja...a severe weather outbreak signature is very possible
late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Lots of significant
wind shear combined with heavy juice and upper level diffluence
usually spells unusual activity. A watch issuance is likely.

Made some tweaks to the modeled PoP and temp fields but didn't make
may big changes. Models are pretty similar and the continuity has
been there as well. Adjusted high temps lower than model guidance
across some northern areas Tue/Wed due to heavy cloud cover and the
upper low position. Raised overnight lows slightly due to cloud cover
and higher dewpoints. Did reduced QPF numbers along the east slopes
of the Sangres but that is the bulls eye area and expect amounts up
to 1.5 inches and perhaps even higher. Snow is relegated to the
higher peaks so impact will be much less but looking at some heftier
amounts around Santa Fe Baldy. Perhaps over 1 foot. Folks recreating
in the back country will need to take note of the expected changing
weather conditions there. Model timing with the departing low still
looks to be intact and for Thur.

Models continue to show transitory ridging Friday through Monday.
Temperatures will warm accordingly and went a little above model
guidance for highs during this period due to deeper southerly flow
and height rises. Cant rule out some drier storms favoring the
northern mtns.

The next low is progged for the latter half of next week. Suspect
the dryline would become active across the east during that period
and some wind issues elsewhere. Perhaps some northern mtn
precipitation as well.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Pacific low off the northern Baja Coast will bring in breezy and
gusty south winds across NM today. Winds will reach 15-25 mph across
the area, with occasional gusts 35-45 mph possible. Divergence aloft
will destabilize the atmosphere to allow for afternoon thunderstorm
activity, initially firing up over the northern mtns. Storm activity
will expand later this afternoon, with the potential for isolated
severe storms over the eastern plains. Erratic gusty winds with
frequent cloud to ground lightning can be expected with thunderstorms
today. The strongest storms will be capable of 60 mph wind gusts and
hail size of one inch or greater. Thunderstorms that develop in the
west will be mostly dry. Storm motion will be from the S to N at
15-25 mph. Breezy conditions and RH below 15 percent across much of
the west will allow for a couple hours of critical fire conditions
over the SE portion of NM Fire Zone 101 from Mt. Taylor north to Hwy
550.

Overnight, Gulf moisture will continue to push west, thanks to the
strong upper low to our southwest. This will set up strong gap winds
through the central mtns into the Rio Grande Valley, including the
ABQ metro area. Tuesday will see another round of afternoon
thunderstorm activity, shifted a bit further north and east. Mixing
hgts and vent rates drop considerable Tuesday across the northern
and central mtn chain.

The center of the low moves over NM slowly Wednesday into Thursday,
keeping mixing hgts poor to fair across NM. Much cooler temperatures
filter into NM Wednesday helping to keep RH above critical for the
remainder of the week. Colder temperatures and wrap around moisture
should allow for the possibility of high elevation snow atop the
northern mtn peaks Wednesday night into Thursday morning. As the low
pushes off into the U.S. central plains Friday, a high amplitude
ridge begins to build in for the weekend. A drying and warming trend
will take place for the weekend, with minimum RH expected to also
drop below 15 percent. This could allow for critical fire conditions
to develop over western NM for the weekend, although winds look to
be the limiting factor at this time.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1049 AM MDT Mon May 8 2017

NMZ501>540-091100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
1049 AM MDT Mon May 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 3pm and 11pm
MDT across the eastern third of New Mexico. This includes the I-25
corridor from just east of Las Vegas to Raton Pass as well as the I40
corridor from Clines to the Texas state line. The main threats will
be large and very large hail up to 2.00 inches in diameter and wind
gusts of 60 mph or higher. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out
across the east central and southeast plains.

In western New Mexico, a couple of hours of localized critical fire
weather conditions will be possible, mainly around the continental
divide this afternoon as winds strengthen with low humidity. In
addition, a few stray showers and dry thunderstorms producing very
little rainfall, but strong wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible in
western New Mexico today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected again across
eastern New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon's and evening's
with large hail and damaging winds possible. The highest risk will be
in Curry and Roosevelt Counties on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 PM MDT MON MAY 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     HAIL             FORT SUMNER             34.48N 104.24W
05/08/2017  E1.50 INCH       DE BACA            NM   TWITTER FEED

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701884

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
554 PM MDT MON MAY 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             10 ESE MAES             35.63N 104.44W
05/08/2017  E1.00 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701886

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
632 PM MDT MON MAY 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             7 W HOUSE               34.65N 104.03W
05/08/2017  M1.75 INCH       QUAY               NM   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701887

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
634 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

NMZ538-539-090100-
Eastern Lincoln County-Chaves County Plains-
634 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL
CHAVES COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

At 634 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles north of Hope, moving north at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Roswell.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
central and southeastern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3344 10492 3342 10452 3297 10463 3297 10483
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 177DEG 37KT 3305 10474

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
709 PM MDT MON MAY 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TORNADO          6 NNE ROY               36.03N 104.15W
05/08/2017                   HARDING            NM   STORM CHASER

            MEDIA STORM CHASER REPORTED A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN NORTH OF
            ROY

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701888

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
715 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

NMZ538-090145-
Chaves County Plains-
715 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM MDT...

At 715 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Dexter, or 18 miles south of Roswell, moving north
at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roswell, Roswell Correctional Facility and Midway.

This includes Highway 285 between Mile Markers 83 and 104.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
southeastern New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3300 10445 3303 10469 3345 10481 3342 10431
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 182DEG 36KT 3311 10458

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