Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1012
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 21, 2016, 9:49 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 26 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 21, 2016, 9:49 PM CDT (02:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 21, 2016, 10:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 26 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 46 counties
Buena Vista County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Ida County, IA, Lyon County, IA, Monona County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sac County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Nobles County, MN, Rock County, MN, Boyd County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Knox County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brule County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD
The radar
The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3071 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -102 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1409 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 204 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 415 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 3.1
- Supercell composite
- 49.4
The text
As transmitted.
075
ACUS11 KWNS 220249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220249
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-220315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0949 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD / NERN NEB / NWRN IA / SWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 220249Z - 220315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/SEVERE GUST RISK WILL LIKELY SPREAD
DOWNSTREAM FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND BECOME STRONG/SEVERE LATER
THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS W OF THE
MO RIVER IN CNTRL SD WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED/BUOYANT AIRMASS. A
FRONT ADVANCING SLOWLY NWD AS A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY FOCUS
ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES. LARGE HAIL
WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY RISK BUT SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER AND GROW
UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT.
..SMITH/HART.. 06/22/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 41869669 42949984 44039934 44439816 43589522 42639462
41999530 41869669SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 10:21 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Buena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Ida, Lyon and 6 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 21, 10:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Appanoose, Benton, Black Hawk, Buchanan, Cedar, Davis and 22 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 21, 11:18 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Benton, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buchanan, Butler, Calhoun and 34 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 22, 2:31 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Black Hawk, Bremer, Buena Vista, Butler, Calhoun and 38 more | 119 min |
| Jun 22, 4:00 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Des Moines | 2 hr |
| Jun 22, 4:43 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Dickinson, Lyon, O'Brien, Osceola, Sioux | 92 min |
| Jun 22, 3:38 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buchanan, Cedar, Clayton, Clinton, Delaware, Dubuque and 4 more | 97 min |
| Jun 22, 6:11 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Benton, Buchanan, Cedar, Clinton, Delaware, Dubuque and 10 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 22, 5:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anoka, Benton, Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Chisago and 24 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 21, 8:00 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brule, Buffalo, Dewey, Haakon, Hand, Harding and 11 more | 60 min |
| Jun 21, 8:35 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brown, Campbell, Corson, Edmunds, McPherson, Walworth | 7 hr |
| Jun 21, 11:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Campbell, Edmunds, McPherson | 60 min |
| Jun 22, 1:15 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beadle, Brown, Campbell, Clark, Edmunds, Faulk and 8 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.