Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1017
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 22, 2016, 4:00 AM CDT for 20 counties in Illinois; Des Moines County, Iowa. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 22, 2016, 4:00 AM CDT (09:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 22, 2016, 6:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 21 counties
Des Moines County, IA, Brown County, IL, Cass County, IL, Christian County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Knox County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Menard County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Warren County, IL
The radar
The Lincoln radar (KILX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2283 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 61 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 128 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
489
ACUS11 KWNS 220901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220900
ILZ000-IAZ000-221100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 220900Z - 221100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL IL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL IL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A NEW
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS.
DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS OVER HENDERSON/WARREN
COUNTIES IN WEST-CENTRAL IL AS OF 0855Z HAS A HISTORY OF SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND RADAR INDICATIONS OF LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF WW
284 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE STORMS MOVE ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND THE 05Z ESRL HRRR ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW INTO CENTRAL IL.
..BUNTING/DIAL.. 06/22/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 39569034 40539144 41079138 41299105 41209049 41089039
41148989 40388872 39778869 39468914 39569034SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 10:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Christian, Fulton and 18 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 21, 11:18 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Hancock, Henderson, McDonough, Mercer, Rock Island, Warren | 6 hr |
| Jun 22, 2:31 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Mercer | 119 min |
| Jun 22, 4:25 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cass, Champaign, Christian, Coles, Cumberland, DeWitt and 15 more | 3 hr |
| Jun 22, 3:38 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Bureau, Carroll, Champaign, Cook, DeKalb and 32 more | 97 min |
| Jun 22, 6:11 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Boone, Bureau, Carroll, Champaign, Cook, DeKalb and 28 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 21, 9:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Crawford, Dickinson, Ida and 8 more | 26 min |
| Jun 21, 10:21 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Buena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Ida, Lyon and 6 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 22, 4:43 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Dickinson, Lyon, O'Brien, Osceola, Sioux | 92 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.