Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1013
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 21, 2016, 10:28 PM CDT for 24 counties in Illinois; 28 counties in Iowa; 17 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 21, 2016, 10:28 PM CDT (03:28 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 22, 2016, 12:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 69 counties
Appanoose County, IA, Benton County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Davis County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Tama County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Washington County, IA, Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Cass County, IL, Christian County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Greene County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Knox County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Menard County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Pike County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Warren County, IL, Adair County, MO, Audrain County, MO, Clark County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Macon County, MO, Marion County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Pike County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO
The radar
The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2283 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 61 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 128 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
475
ACUS11 KWNS 220329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220328
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-220530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO SERN IA / NERN MO / W-CNTRL AND CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 220328Z - 220530Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. IT SEEMS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEED TO BE ISSUED BETWEEN 04-08Z.
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A SEVERE HAIL-PRODUCING SUPERCELL
OVER SRN IA ON THE SWRN FLANK OF WEAKER TSTMS. A FRONTAL ZONE
DRAPED NW TO SE OVER THE REGION IS FOCUSING TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE EWD ADVECTION OF STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL GROWTH WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE AND SUGGESTED BY HOURLY TIME-LAGGED
HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE AS SWLY H85 FLOW STRENGTHENS TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTENING PROCESSES WILL LIFT PARCELS TO THEIR LFC
AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SCTD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOMETIME
BETWEEN 04-08Z. STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND AMPLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCIPIENT
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A MORE LOCALIZED DAMAGING-WIND
RISK.
..SMITH/HART.. 06/22/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40038898 39058918 38929032 38909166 39459277 40679319
42359345 42679298 42599194 41829119 40038898SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 11:18 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Hancock, Henderson, McDonough, Mercer, Rock Island, Warren | 6 hr |
| Jun 22, 2:31 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Mercer | 119 min |
| Jun 22, 4:00 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Cass, Christian, DeWitt, Fulton, Hancock and 14 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 22, 4:25 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cass, Champaign, Christian, Coles, Cumberland, DeWitt and 15 more | 3 hr |
| Jun 22, 3:38 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Bureau, Carroll, Champaign, Cook, DeKalb and 32 more | 97 min |
| Jun 22, 6:11 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Boone, Bureau, Carroll, Champaign, Cook, DeKalb and 28 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 21, 9:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Crawford, Dickinson, Ida and 8 more | 26 min |
| Jun 21, 10:21 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Buena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Ida, Lyon and 6 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 22, 4:43 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Dickinson, Lyon, O'Brien, Osceola, Sioux | 92 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.