Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1014

June 21, 201610 counties in North Dakota; 4 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 21, 2016, 11:30 PM CDT for 10 counties in North Dakota; 4 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 60 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 21, 2016, 11:30 PM CDT (04:30 UTC)
Expired: Jun 22, 2016, 12:30 AM CDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McLean County, ND, Morton County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Brown County, SD, Campbell County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, McPherson County, SD

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 81 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 5 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -462 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1984 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 77 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 106 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 495 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

079 
ACUS11 KWNS 220431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220430 
SDZ000-NDZ000-220530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND / NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...

VALID 220430Z - 220530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN SEVERAL
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL OVER CNTRL AND SRN ND PER MRMS MESH
DATA.  MUCH OF THE ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS THAT EXTENDED FROM S-CNTRL SD NWWD INTO WRN ND.
ELY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE ERN HALF OF ND WILL LIKELY ONLY
MARGINALLY MOISTEN WITH TIME OWING TO A REINFORCEMENT OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SRN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN ONTARIO.  

NONETHELESS...AN ADEQUATE FEED OF CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE PARCELS
FROM THE S/SW WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS.  THE
STRONGER H5 HEIGHT FALLS /60+ M PER 12 HR/ PER EVENING UPPER-AIR
ANALYSIS ARE BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD WRN AND CNTRL ND LATE THIS
EVENING.  THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/SHEAR WILL
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..SMITH.. 06/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45339971 46850204 47740140 47339986 46269801 45419830
            45339971

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 21, 7:35 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Divide, Dunn, Golden Valley and 5 more	55 min
Jun 21, 8:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burke, Burleigh, Dickey and 25 more	7 hr
Jun 22, 1:15 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Burleigh, Dickey, Emmons, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan and 2 more	2 hr
Jun 21, 8:00 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brule, Buffalo, Dewey, Haakon, Hand, Harding and 11 more	60 min
Jun 21, 9:49 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aurora, Bon Homme, Brule, Buffalo, Charles Mix, Clay and 15 more	26 min
Jun 21, 10:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Aurora, Bon Homme, Brule, Charles Mix, Clay, Davison and 10 more	7 hr
Jun 22, 2:31 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aurora, Brule, Clay, Davison, Douglas, Hanson and 7 more	119 min
Jun 22, 4:43 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aurora, Brule, Buffalo, Davison, Hanson, Lincoln and 3 more	92 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.