Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1011
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 21, 2016, 8:00 PM CDT for 17 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 60 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 21, 2016, 8:00 PM CDT (01:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 21, 2016, 9:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 60 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Brule County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Hand County, SD, Harding County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Meade County, SD, Pennington County, SD, Perkins County, SD, Potter County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD, Ziebach County, SD
The radar
The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Rapid City, SD (KRAP), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1016 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -27 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3436 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 100 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 136 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.7
The text
As transmitted.
475
ACUS11 KWNS 220101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220100
SDZ000-220200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281...
VALID 220100Z - 220200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/SEVERE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEING
NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF SEVERE WATCH 281.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF VERY RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER N-CNTRL NEB AND S-CNTRL SD /UPPER 60S
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/. THE INITIAL STORMS NEAR THE BLACK HILLS HAVE
MOVED EWD TOWARDS THE MO RIVER NEAR PIR AND HAVE WEAKENED IN THE
PAST HOUR. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAP/MLCINH LOCATED FARTHER E WHEN MODIFYING THE 00Z RAP RAOB FOR
SURFACE CONDITIONS. THE 00Z RAP RAOB FEATURED VERY STEEP H7-H5
LAPSE RATES /9.3 DEG C PER KM/ AND A WIND PROFILE VEERING FROM ELY
TO WLY NOT FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE AND STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT TO
70-KT AROUND 300 MB. AS A RESULT...ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE
STRONGLY FAVORED GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY/SHEAR. THE
STORMS MANAGING TO BECOME SUPERCELLS WILL POSE THE GREATEST
HAIL/WIND HAZARD.
BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
WITH THE TERMINUS OF THE SPEED MAX NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER. STRONG
MOISTURE FLUX/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL SD AND POSSIBLY INTO ERN SD
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE W. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL STORM COVERAGE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH DOWNSTREAM OVER
ERN SD.
..SMITH.. 06/22/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
LAT...LON 43770289 45750389 45920238 45390007 44549852 43669882
43770289SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 8:35 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brown, Campbell, Corson, Edmunds, McPherson, Walworth | 7 hr |
| Jun 21, 9:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aurora, Bon Homme, Brule, Buffalo, Charles Mix, Clay and 15 more | 26 min |
| Jun 21, 10:21 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aurora, Bon Homme, Brule, Charles Mix, Clay, Davison and 10 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 21, 11:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Campbell, Edmunds, McPherson | 60 min |
| Jun 22, 1:15 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beadle, Brown, Campbell, Clark, Edmunds, Faulk and 8 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 22, 2:31 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aurora, Brule, Clay, Davison, Douglas, Hanson and 7 more | 119 min |
| Jun 22, 4:43 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aurora, Brule, Buffalo, Davison, Hanson, Lincoln and 3 more | 92 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.