Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1015

June 22, 20168 counties in North Dakota; 14 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 22, 2016, 1:15 AM CDT for 8 counties in North Dakota; 14 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 22, 2016, 1:15 AM CDT (06:15 UTC)
Expired
Jun 22, 2016, 3:15 AM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 22 counties

Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Beadle County, SD, Brown County, SD, Campbell County, SD, Clark County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Potter County, SD, Spink County, SD, Sully County, SD, Walworth County, SD

The radar

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2016-06-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2016-06-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 71 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2484 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
71 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
267 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

069 
ACUS11 KWNS 220616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220615 
SDZ000-NDZ000-220815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN ND...CENTRAL/ERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282...283...

VALID 220615Z - 220815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
282...283...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282. A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION IN TIME MAY
BE NEEDED PRIOR TO WATCH 282 EXPIRATION AT 07Z.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES AT 0610Z SHOW A COUPLE OF
CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ONE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ND IN WW
282 AND THE OTHER OVER CENTRAL SD...BOTH WITH RADAR INDICATIONS OF
SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS. A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
MT IS PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION...AND
MODERATE-LOCALLY STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS PRESENT ALONG
WITH AMPLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR /60-70 KTS/. 

THE SEVERE THREAT WITH WW 282 MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS
STORMS MOVE THROUGH A FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT...AND
THEREFORE A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO WW
282 EXPIRATION...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ND AND NORTHERN SD
AS THE STORMS EAST OF BISMARCK CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH A
SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE CENTRAL SD CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE
SHOWN A TENDENCY TO FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. AS
THESE STORMS CONTINUE EAST/SOUTHEAST NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM
FRONT...WEAKENING WARM-AIR ADVECTION MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WITH TIME...HOWEVER AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED INTERMITTENT
SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN IN THE SHORT TERM.

..BUNTING.. 06/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46670117 47110095 47270051 47359974 47289892 47119862
            46689837 46419815 45669790 45469786 45249774 44939766
            44609748 44259763 44079802 44079862 44069962 44240021
            44610072 46670117

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 21, 7:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Billings, Bowman, Divide, Dunn, Golden Valley and 5 more55 min
Jun 21, 8:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Billings, Bowman, Burke, Burleigh, Dickey and 25 more7 hr
Jun 21, 11:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBurleigh, Dickey, Emmons, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan and 4 more60 min
Jun 21, 8:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrule, Buffalo, Dewey, Haakon, Hand, Harding and 11 more60 min
Jun 21, 9:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAurora, Bon Homme, Brule, Buffalo, Charles Mix, Clay and 15 more26 min
Jun 21, 10:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAurora, Bon Homme, Brule, Charles Mix, Clay, Davison and 10 more7 hr
Jun 22, 2:31 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAurora, Brule, Clay, Davison, Douglas, Hanson and 7 more119 min
Jun 22, 4:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAurora, Brule, Buffalo, Davison, Hanson, Lincoln and 3 more92 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.