Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1010

June 21, 20165 counties in Montana; 11 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 21, 2016, 6:35 PM MDT for 5 counties in Montana; 11 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 55 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 21, 2016, 6:35 PM MDT (00:35 UTC)
Expired: Jun 21, 2016, 7:30 PM MDT
In force: 55 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Daniels County, MT, Richland County, MT, Roosevelt County, MT, Sheridan County, MT, Wibaux County, MT, Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Williams County, ND

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 216 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282Jun 21, 7:35 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 215 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 818 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -91 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2097 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 100 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 279 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 384 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 16.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

579 
ACUS11 KWNS 220036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220035 
NDZ000-MTZ000-220130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT / WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280...

VALID 220035Z - 220130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIMARILY POSE
A RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MT
BORDER WITH A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING SE TO NW ACROSS WRN ND INTO
NERN MT.  RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INVOF THE FRONT IS EVIDENT
WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS.  

THE 00Z GGW RAOB EXHIBITED AN IMPRESSIVE WIND PROFILE WITH ELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW SURMOUNTED BY STRENGTHENING/VEERING FLOW IN THE MID TO
HIGH LEVELS--YIELDING 90-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  THE STRENGTH OF THE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STRONGLY FAVOR
DISCRETE STORMS INITIALLY VIA STRONG ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW AND THE
DISPERSING OF HYDROMETEORS DOWNSTREAM.  AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
REDUCING SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY INCREASE FOR THE
STRONGEST STORMS.  AS THIS OCCURS...A LOW RISK FOR A TORNADO MAY
DEVELOP BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL WILL PROBABLY
BE THE MAIN THREAT  --ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS-- AS STORMS
MOVE INTO THE MOIST AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..SMITH.. 06/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   47110441 48200606 48950664 49010367 48050229 46800219
            46040234 45990345 47110441

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 21, 7:35 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burke, Burleigh, Dickey and 25 more	7 hr
Jun 21, 10:30 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Burleigh, Dickey, Emmons, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan and 4 more	60 min
Jun 22, 12:15 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Burleigh, Dickey, Emmons, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan and 2 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.