Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
150 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Upper low will continue it's slow trek eastward through the
afternoon and into Saturday with PoPs remaining elevated through the
afternoon. There will be enough instability to spark off
thunderstorms through the afternoon. Severe storms across much of
the CWA will be limited for the most part to hail and wind. The
exception will be the far eastern portions of the CWA where a Theta-
E boundary is draped from north to south just east of the upper low.
In this area we could see stronger forcing which could lead to large
hail, damaging winds, and possibly an isolated tornado. Thunderstorm
activity will slowly move to the east overnight with very weak
shortwave high pressure building in briefly on Saturday. Drier air
will encompass the region on Saturday with PoPs increasing once more
as we head into the overnight hours into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Weak upper ridge will gradually flatten on Sunday as flow becomes
nearly zonal across the CWA. A large longwave trough will move
slowly southward out of Canada as we head over the Monday through
Tuesday time frame. Slight chance to chance PoPs will remain
possible thanks to favorable instability in the region. CAPE values
during the afternoon Sunday through Tuesday will be in the 2000 J/Kg
to 3200 J/Kg range with only modest bulk shear values. Wave of low
pressure will rotate very slowly around the longwave trough through
Thursday with weather remaining largely unsettled through much of
next week. A ridge will build into the western U.S. as we head into
Friday. This ridge will gradually work its way into the region and
dry things out as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016

A mix of vfr/mvfr conditions is expected for the forecast period
with ceilings ranging from bkn015 up to bkn060. 3-6sm -shra br thru
03z tonight with some vcts 19z-23z. Winds ne around 10kts
becoming nw by 00z tonight.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-282115-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
315 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016 /415 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
COLBY TO ATWOOD TO TRENTON. THE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ON SUNDAY A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE
WEATHER REPORTS BY PHONE OR THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA ARE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

JTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
334 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     HAIL             5 NW HAIGLER            40.06N 102.02W
05/27/2016  E0.75 INCH       DUNDY              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY DUNDY COUNTY SHERIFF

&&

HILL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
350 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TORNADO          2 NNW SELKIRK           38.50N 101.55W
05/27/2016                   WICHITA            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

HILL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
430 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

KSZ041-272245-
GREELEY KS-
430 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GREELEY COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM MDT...

AT 430 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTH OF HORACE...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRIBUNE...MOVING WEST
AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
GREELEY COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3865 10160 3851 10162 3851 10190 3865 10189
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 103DEG 13KT 3857 10183

DR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

KSZ001-272300-
CHEYENNE KS-
533 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 532 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES WEST OF ST. FRANCIS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL
CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3982 10180 3967 10192 3972 10205 3983 10205
      3990 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 025DEG 16KT 3979 10195

LUNDQUIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
434 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     TORNADO          6 WNW SELKIRK           38.52N 101.64W
05/27/2016                   GREELEY            KS   PUBLIC

            LANDSPOUT. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

HILL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
445 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

NEZ079-272315-
DUNDY NE-
445 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DUNDY COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

AT 445 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF BENKELMAN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PARKS.

LAT...LON 4014 10150 4000 10159 4000 10177 4009 10177
      4025 10162
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 048DEG 12KT 4014 10162

DR