Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
527 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...a mix of psunny to
msunny skies as the region lies west of a warm front currently over
the central portion of Kansas. Temps are ranging in the lower to mid
70s w/ dewpts ranging from the 45f to 50f west to the lower to mid
60s east due to the proximity to a warm front. To our west...a slow
moving upper low over the 4-corners region of the country will make
its way towards the Tri State region overnight.

Do expect areal coverage of trw to increase as the afternoon/evening
hours progress...which will be in tandem to the approach of the
upper low to our southwest. Strong shear...current sb cape values
approaching 1500-3000 j/kg especially in locales closest to the warm
front...could produce severe storms with tornadoes. The area could
also see 1-2" hail...winds 60-70mph or higher with any storms.
Training of thunderstorms could also bring heavy rainfall and
potential flooding to some areas.

The combination of these these factors has put the area into mainly
an enhanced to moderate risk for severe wx...which has resulted in a
tornado watch for the cwa until 01z-03z.

Going into Friday with the upper low will begin to move over the
cwa...model dynamics for severe wx will shift east of the
cwa...but do expect trw/rw thru the day due to the slow mvmnt of
the system.

For temps...overnight lows tonight and daytime highs Friday will be
highly dependent on areal coverage of clouds/precip over the area.
Looking for lows to range in the lower to mid 50s and highs Friday
to range from the mid 60s west to the mid 70s east.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 110 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

Upper low will be moving over the area Friday night which result
in widespread showers and thunderstorms through the evening hours
then gradually pulling out to the northeast after midnight. Some
light precipitation may linger in the far northeast counties
around McCook through Saturday morning before ending. There will
be a limited severe threat early Friday evening but as the surface
cold front sweeps through the severe threat will end relatively
early Friday night.

Storms on Saturday afternoon will be isolated and tied to surface
heating in the higher terrain of eastern Colorado/Palmer Divide.
Upper forcing will be quite weak with only a hint of a shortwave
trough in the zonal flow. Surface instability will also be weak so
do not think there will be much of a severe threat. An increase in
activity is expected on Sunday as the upper flow becomes southwest
with a weak embedded shortwave trough. Moderate instability is
forecast but deep layer shear of only 20-30kts will probably
keep any severe threat on the low end.

The unsettled pattern continues into early next week with a cut
off low over the northern plains resulting in general troughiness
across the central plains. However by the middle of the week that
system will lift into central Canada with shortwave ridging trying
to build over the central Rockies and adjacent plains. As a result
expect precipitation chances to decrease and temperatures increase
during that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 449 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected with widespread thunderstorms
producing strong gusty winds and possibly hail through about 07Z.
Conditions will transition to IFR between 06Z-08Z with isolated to
scattered showers continuing through the remainder of the TAF
period. expect conditions to transition back up through MVFR
between 17Z-20Z and VFR conditions after 22Z.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1031 AM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-271645-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1031 AM MDT THU MAY 26 2016 /1131 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL GREATER THAN 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER AND STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
715 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE COLBY             39.41N 101.01W
05/26/2016  M66 MPH          THOMAS             KS   MESONET

&&

NWS GOODLAND KS
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
716 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     COLBY                   39.39N 101.05W
05/26/2016  E68 MPH          THOMAS             KS   PUBLIC

&&

TLYNCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
717 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E COLBY               39.39N 101.01W
05/26/2016  M73 MPH          THOMAS             KS   MESONET

&&

TLYNCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
721 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S BURLINGTON          39.24N 102.28W
05/26/2016  E62 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   ASOS

&&

NWS GOODLAND KS
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
725 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE SAINT FRANCIS     39.76N 101.80W
05/26/2016  M78 MPH          CHEYENNE           KS   ASOS

&&

NWS GOODLAND KS
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
726 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HAIL             8 NE LEOTI              38.56N 101.25W
05/26/2016  E2.75 INCH       WICHITA            KS   PUBLIC

            PING PONG TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL CALLED IN TO WICHITA
            COUNTY DISPATCH.

0716 PM     DUST STORM       10 S ATWOOD             39.67N 101.04W
05/26/2016                   RAWLINS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND SIGNIFICANT WINDS DUE TO
            THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.

&&

RHUSTED