Tornado Warning 54, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
150 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Upper low will continue it's slow trek eastward through the
afternoon and into Saturday with PoPs remaining elevated through the
afternoon. There will be enough instability to spark off
thunderstorms through the afternoon. Severe storms across much of
the CWA will be limited for the most part to hail and wind. The
exception will be the far eastern portions of the CWA where a Theta-
E boundary is draped from north to south just east of the upper low.
In this area we could see stronger forcing which could lead to large
hail, damaging winds, and possibly an isolated tornado. Thunderstorm
activity will slowly move to the east overnight with very weak
shortwave high pressure building in briefly on Saturday. Drier air
will encompass the region on Saturday with PoPs increasing once more
as we head into the overnight hours into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Weak upper ridge will gradually flatten on Sunday as flow becomes
nearly zonal across the CWA. A large longwave trough will move
slowly southward out of Canada as we head over the Monday through
Tuesday time frame. Slight chance to chance PoPs will remain
possible thanks to favorable instability in the region. CAPE values
during the afternoon Sunday through Tuesday will be in the 2000 J/Kg
to 3200 J/Kg range with only modest bulk shear values. Wave of low
pressure will rotate very slowly around the longwave trough through
Thursday with weather remaining largely unsettled through much of
next week. A ridge will build into the western U.S. as we head into
Friday. This ridge will gradually work its way into the region and
dry things out as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Fri May 27 2016

A mix of vfr/mvfr conditions is expected for the forecast period
with ceilings ranging from bkn015 up to bkn060. 3-6sm -shra br thru
03z tonight with some vcts 19z-23z. Winds ne around 10kts
becoming nw by 00z tonight.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-282115-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
315 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016 /415 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
COLBY TO ATWOOD TO TRENTON. THE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ON SUNDAY A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SEVERE
WEATHER REPORTS BY PHONE OR THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA ARE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

JTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     7 WSW IDALIA            39.67N 102.42W
05/27/2016                   YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

&&

HILL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

KSZ041-272100-
GREELEY-
226 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

CONDITIONS FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AS STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT IS UNKNOWN WHICH IF ANY
STORM WOULD PRODUCE A TORNADO. ANY TORNADOES WHICH DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO POSE A LIMITED THREAT AND ARE OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKER STORMS AND NOT SEEN ON RADAR.

IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO ENSURE YOUR
SAFETY...THEN REPORT IT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 785-899-
7119. LOCAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
STORMS IN THEIR AREA.

LAT...LON 3865 10205 3865 10157 3826 10157 3826 10204

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
303 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     TORNADO          3 NE HORACE             38.50N 101.75W
05/27/2016                   GREELEY            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LANDSPOUT

&&

HILL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
321 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     TORNADO          4 NNW HORACE            38.53N 101.81W
05/27/2016                   GREELEY            KS   PUBLIC

            LANDSPOUT REPORTED

&&

HILL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
331 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

COZ090-KSZ001-NEZ079-272145-
YUMA COUNTY CO-CHEYENNE KS-DUNDY NE-
331 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA UNTIL
345 PM MDT/445 PM CDT/...

AT 331 PM MDT/431 PM CDT/...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF HAIGLER...OR 10 MILES EAST OF
WRAY... MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAIGLER AND LAIRD.

LAT...LON 4001 10187 3995 10210 4009 10216 4014 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 057DEG 8KT 4004 10203

LUNDQUIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
334 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     HAIL             5 NW HAIGLER            40.06N 102.02W
05/27/2016  E0.75 INCH       DUNDY              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY DUNDY COUNTY SHERIFF

&&

HILL