Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Fort Worth, TX

667 
WWUS54 KFWD 080223
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
823 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

TXC097-080245-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-160308T0245Z/
COOKE TX-
823 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CST
FOR EASTERN COOKE COUNTY...

AT 822 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE KIOWA...OR
NEAR GAINESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GAINESVILLE...CALLISBURG...LAKE KIOWA AND VALLEY VIEW. 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 483 AND 501.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS. DO NOT
DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 9719 3368 9718 3372 9712 3372 9711
      3374 9709 3380 9710 3381 9709 3382 9705
      3384 9706 3384 9709 3385 9709 3386 9707
      3384 9705 3384 9703 3389 9698 3392 9699
      3395 9695 3342 9695
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 248DEG 24KT 3355 9710 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JLDUNN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
629 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS WEST OF A COMANCHE
TO CLEBURNE TO SHERMAN AS OF 2330Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT INTO THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES THIS EVENING...THUS HAVE PLACED A TEMPO 3SM TSRA IN THE
METROPLEX TAFS FOR THE 00-04Z PERIOD. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER. OUTSIDE OF THE
RAIN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z WITH MVFR CEILING
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHER ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN INITIAL BATCH OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR HAS STREAMED NORTHWARD AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
DRYLINE IS POSITIONED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND IT HAS MADE IT AS FAR
EAST AS SWEETWATER BUT FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESSION DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING NOW
APPROACHING OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH IS HELPING TO SHARPEN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY
MAXIMIZED. LATEST LOOK AT RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES INDICATES THAT A SHARP CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST 4KM NAM ALSO
SHOWS AN ABRUPT WEAKENING OF THE CAP FOLLOWED BY A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
GIVEN THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONTINUED LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THINK THAT WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL WOULD REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE ALTHOUGH IT COULD PUT DOWN ANOTHER BAND OF AROUND 1 INCH OF
RAIN THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. IN ALL...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
COULD FALL TONIGHT IN AREAS MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATE 35W AND AREAS
WEST.

TUESDAY...IS OUR MAIN DAY IN QUESTION REGARDING THE FORECAST AS IT
COULD VERY WELL BE MOSTLY QUIET OR RATHER ACTIVE. IT IS APPEARING
MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SO POPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL MAIN AREAS OF ASCENT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT DOES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WEST OF I-35. IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE A DEEP MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT A RATHER UNPERTURBED UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE VERY WEAKLY
CAPPED. THIS SEEMS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES BACK WEAKLY IN THE MID LEVELS
LIKELY INDICATING SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY. IF THIS IS IN FACT THE CASE...THEN IT MAY BE A
QUIET DAY...ALTHOUGH HUMID AND WARM. IF THE SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT
EXIST AND WE HAVE ANY LIFT AT ALL...THEN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS ON THE AIRMASS AND POSSIBLY
ANY DATA FROM 12 OR 18Z SOUNDINGS TOMORROW CAN OFFER. FOR NOW...WE
WILL SIDE WITH LOWER OVERALL POPS AND MONITOR THE THREAT CLOSELY.
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN A SMALL CORRIDOR ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE WARM ADVECTION STREAMER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

THE NEXT LARGE AREA OF LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS LIKELY THE TIME WHEN THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...EAST OF THE METROPLEX FOR
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS IN THE FLOOD WATCH
COULD SEE MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF RAIN. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUESDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING INTO A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
DISCREPANCIES GROW REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. WE CAN
SAY WITH CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  75  60  68  57 /  80  50 100  60  50
WACO, TX              66  77  59  70  56 /  60  40 100  60  50
PARIS, TX             62  72  61  68  58 /  70  90 100  90  50
DENTON, TX            64  74  59  68  56 /  80  50 100  60  50
MCKINNEY, TX          65  74  60  67  56 /  80  50 100  70  50
DALLAS, TX            68  75  60  69  58 /  70  50 100  70  50
TERRELL, TX           67  75  60  69  58 /  60  60 100  80  50
CORSICANA, TX         65  76  61  69  58 /  50  50 100  70  50
TEMPLE, TX            66  78  59  70  56 /  60  40 100  50  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  77  57  68  54 /  80  50  80  50  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

58/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
348 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
348 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS THE ACTIVITY
MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. SOME STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COMPLEX...BUT THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ALONG A LINE FROM JACKSBORO...TO
STEPHENVILLE...TO LAMPASAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THE ACTIVITY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR
FLOODING WILL BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
721 PM CST MON MAR 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MINERAL WELLS           32.80N  98.10W
03/07/2016                   PALO PINTO         TX   UNKNOWN

            HIGH WATER RESCUES IN MINERAL WELLS AND SANTO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
732 PM CST MON MAR 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW SANTO              32.62N  98.24W
03/07/2016                   PALO PINTO         TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PALO PINTO CREEK ALONG FM 4 AND LAKEVIEW DR...HIGH WATER
            RESCUE REPORTED

HERNANDEZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
741 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

TXZ092-102-103-118-080245-
COOKE TX-WISE TX-TARRANT TX-DENTON TX-
741 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WISE...DENTON...TARRANT
AND SOUTHERN COOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CST...

AT 740 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF MUENSTER
TO NEAR PECAN ACRES TO NEAR WILLOW PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...PLANO...GRAND PRAIRIE...CARROLLTON...FRISCO...
DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...EULESS...BEDFORD...GRAPEVINE...HALTOM
CITY...KELLER...COPPELL...HURST...THE COLONY...SOUTHLAKE...WATAUGA AND
COLLEYVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
 INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 468 AND 493.
 INTERSTATE 35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 49 AND 85.
 INTERSTATE 35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 446 AND 466.
 INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 31.
 INTERSTATE 820 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 3 AND 31.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3342 9694 3340 9684 3299 9684 3299 9703
      3271 9704 3272 9755 3358 9747 3360 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 258DEG 25KT 3351 9733 3295 9745 3278 9767

JLDUNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
749 PM CST MON MAR 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEATHERFORD             32.77N  97.80W
03/07/2016                   PARKER             TX   PUBLIC

            DAMAGE REPORTED 700 BLOCK OUR LANE. ROOF BLOWN OFF
            HOUSE. TIME ESTIMATED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED EVENT TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
749 PM CST MON MAR 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEATHERFORD             32.77N  97.80W
03/07/2016                   PARKER             TX   PUBLIC

            DAMAGE REPORTED 700 BLOCK OUR LANE. ROOF BLOWN OFF
            HOUSE. TIME ESTIMATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
752 PM CST MON MAR 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PARADISE                33.15N  97.65W
03/07/2016  E2.88 INCH       WISE               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN MEASURED IN PARADISE BETWEEN 630 AND 720 PM