Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Fort Worth, TX

285 
WWUS54 KFWD 081643
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1043 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXC277-081715-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-160308T1715Z/
LAMAR TX-
1043 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CST
FOR LAMAR COUNTY...

AT 1043 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF PARIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF LAMAR
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: SUN VALLEY...ROXTON AND
TOCO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 9556 3388 9554 3389 9551 3388 9551
      3387 9540 3387 9534 3389 9532 3364 9532
      3353 9549 3349 9562 3347 9568 3350 9577
      3346 9586 3383 9585 3384 9582 3386 9581
      3385 9577 3389 9575 3388 9570 3394 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 232DEG 37KT 3375 9564 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DUNN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.AVIATION...
AN MCS LOCATED JUST THIS SIDE OF KDYS WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE
DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA THIS MORNING...REACHING METROPLEX TAF SITES
14-15Z. SIMILAR TIMING IS EXPECTED IN THE WACO AREA BASED ON THE
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION. HI-RES MODEL
DATA DOES INDICATE SOME SLOWING-DOWN OF THE LINE AS IT REACHES
AREA TAF SITES THIS MORNING...SO WE WILL INCLUDE A 3-HOUR TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDER DURING THE 14-17Z TIME FRAME. SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY DRY-LINE ACTIVITY WHICH MAY DEVELOP LIKELY
REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
MEXICO. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE KACT AREA AROUND
09/06Z...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX
DURING THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN RETURN TO THE IFR/MVFR
CATEGORIES AGAIN TONIGHT.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER BAJA PENINSULA IS DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING AND IT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO BY TONIGHT. THIS TRACK IS UNUSUALLY
FAR SOUTH FOR AN UPPER LOW TO TAKE...AND THE LACK OF A
CLIMATOLOGICAL BASIS MAKES THIS FORECASTER A LITTLE WARY ON
TRUSTING MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PARTICULAR SEVERE HAZARDS
IN TIME AND SPACE...IT IS CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SYNOPTIC
INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
AVAILABLE. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE YET TO BE RESOLVED
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH WILL MAKE OR BREAK THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
YESTERDAY EVENING IS WELL UP INTO THE MIDWEST AT THIS TIME...BUT
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND HAS
RESULTED IN A LINE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION TO
THE WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST OF A
COMANCHE TO DALLAS TO BONHAM LINE WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LINE...BUT POPS ARE LOWER IN THIS REGION DUE TO MORE UNCERTAINTY.
THE LIKELY TRACK OF THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL TAKE IT
ACROSS THE MINERAL WELLS TO SHERMAN AREA THAT SAW 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. MORE RAIN WILL EXACERBATE FLOODING PROBLEMS
AND THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A BAND OF THE
COUNTIES NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX THROUGH NOON. THERE
IS A LOW SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY THIS SHOULD BE MORE OF A MARGINAL WIND/SMALL HAIL THREAT.

BY THIS AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING/S
RAIN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION AND SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR
IN THE 700-850MB LAYER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
SUBSIDENCE MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS WOULD RESPOND TO THE
SUNSHINE AND COULD REACH THE MID 70S TO 80 DEGREES ACROSS THIS
PART OF THE CWA. JUST LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

THE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN
THE ATMOSPHERE. ON ONE HAND...RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE IS EXPECTED AND IT WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT WOULD BUILD UP A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
UNANIMOUSLY SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 2000 J/KG WITH SOME
INDICATING 3500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WOULD BE UNCAPPED...BUT IF
THE SUBSIDENCE IS DOMINANT...CONVECTION WOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME
FORMING. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED UPWARD FORCING
THAT WOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ONE OF THESE MAY BE A
DRY LINE THAT ACTUALLY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES TODAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT A
NORMAL OCCURRENCE HERE AND IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE UNUSUAL SOUTHERLY
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FORECAST
BY THE RAP...WHICH SUGGESTS THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION WILL LEAVE
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. STRONG
SOUTH WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD INDUCE STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AND LIFT OVER THE TOP OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COULD RESULT IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP
SHEAR. THE MOST LIKELY REGION WHERE AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD DEVELOP
IS WEST OF I-35...BUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INSTABILITY OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT ALSO IN SOUTH TEXAS. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY FORM ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS FIRST THIS EVENING...WITH A
DOWNWIND PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LIKELY FORMING
AND TRACKING NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE TRACK OF THIS MCS
WOULD LIKELY BRING IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS MCS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT IF
WINDS DO BACK TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN
CENTRAL TEXAS...EMBEDDED TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. USUALLY
WHEN VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN SOUTH TEXAS...THE CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TENDS TO STRUGGLE. SO WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND TRACK THROUGH THE AREA NORTH
OF A COMANCHE TO TERRELL LINE...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AGAIN THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST ALL HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS MCS THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY. RAINFALL TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS LIKELY...AND 1-3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL CONTINUE AS IS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA WILL ONLY SEE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES
LOW ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION OCCURRING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL ALSO STABILIZE OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA AND STALL
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER DUE
TO CLOUDS AND DAMP CONDITIONS...WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE
SOME COLD ADVECTION TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA FOR COOLER LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO HEAD NORTH OUT OF MEXICO
AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND A SWATH OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE RAIN FORECAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY OVER THE OTHER MODELS AS IT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IS PERFORMING WELL. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH RAIN
COMING TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ROUND.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER AND OUT OF THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  59  68  57  66 /  90  90  70  20  40
WACO, TX              78  59  70  57  67 /  60 100  70  20  50
PARIS, TX             71  60  68  59  68 /  70  80  90  60  50
DENTON, TX            73  58  67  57  64 / 100  80  70  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          71  59  67  57  66 /  90  80  70  20  40
DALLAS, TX            74  59  68  58  66 /  90  90  70  20  40
TERRELL, TX           72  60  68  58  69 /  70  90  80  30  50
CORSICANA, TX         75  61  68  59  70 /  70 100  80  40  50
TEMPLE, TX            80  59  70  57  68 /  50 100  70  30  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     77  56  68  55  63 /  90  80  50  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ091>093-101>103-
116-117.

&&

30/92

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
419 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091030-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
419 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. ONE ROUND OF STORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH QUARTER TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZED HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
OVER AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. IF THESE STORMS DO DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL
DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO CANTON. OTHERWISE
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER ALL
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
915 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BLUE MOUND              32.88N  97.37W
03/08/2016                   TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

            DAMAGE TO SIDING AT A SERVICE STATION AT BLUE MOUND
            ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
917 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 AM     TSTM WND DMG     STEPHENVILLE            32.23N  98.20W
03/08/2016                   ERATH              TX   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT---DAMAGE TO PRESS BOX AT TARLETON
            MEMORIAL STADIUM IN STEPHENVILLE. TIME ESTIMATED VIA
            RADAR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
935 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 AM     TORNADO          TOLAR                   32.40N  97.90W
03/08/2016                   HOOD               TX   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT---SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURES AND BROADCAST
            MEDIA SHOW VIDEO OF TORNADO NEAR TOLAR. TIME ESTIMATED
            VIA RADAR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 AM     TSTM WND DMG     THE COLONY              33.09N  96.89W
03/08/2016                   DENTON             TX   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA---DAMAGE TO HOMES IN
            THE COLONY NEAR COLONY HS. FD RESPONDING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1000 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKE WORTH              32.80N  97.40W
03/08/2016                   TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT---DAMAGE TO SMALL SHED NEAR VERIZON STORE
            JUST NORTH OF 820 IN LAKE WORTH. TIME ESTIMATED VIA
            RADAR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1007 AM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     TSTM WND DMG     FRISCO                  33.15N  96.81W
03/08/2016                   COLLIN             TX   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT---SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURES SHOW DAMAGE TO
            LARGE SILO NEAR FIRST AND MAIN STREET IN FRISCO.