River Flood Warning 23, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1218 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.AVIATION...
THE DEPARTING MCS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF MOST OF THE TAF SITES AS OF
18 UTC. LINGERING STRATIFORM RAINFALL WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
REDUCING VSBYS TO AS LOW AS 2SM AT TIMES WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THROUGH ABOUT 20 UTC. OTHERWISE...WE
SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS. HOWEVER...OVERCAST
CIGS OSCILLATING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHAOTIC SKY IN PLACE FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST HINGES ON A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS POINT...BEGINNING WITH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BECOMING SEVERE. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS....IT
DOES APPEAR THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND TAFS WILL BE AMENDED IF NECESSARY.

THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS OUR NEXT WAVE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE ENCROACHING ON THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. IT APPEARS A SWATH OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WITH
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS AND INCLUDE TEMPO
MENTION OF TSRA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION...DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OVERNIGHT...WINDS MAY QUICKLY SHIFT
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TO NORTH TO WEST IN THE SPAN OF A FEW
HOURS IF THE SURFACE LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA.
OTHERWISE...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

STALLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER BAJA PENINSULA IS DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING AND IT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO BY TONIGHT. THIS TRACK IS UNUSUALLY
FAR SOUTH FOR AN UPPER LOW TO TAKE...AND THE LACK OF A
CLIMATOLOGICAL BASIS MAKES THIS FORECASTER A LITTLE WARY ON
TRUSTING MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PARTICULAR SEVERE HAZARDS
IN TIME AND SPACE...IT IS CERTAIN THAT ALL OF THE SYNOPTIC
INGREDIENTS THAT PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
AVAILABLE. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE YET TO BE RESOLVED
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH WILL MAKE OR BREAK THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
YESTERDAY EVENING IS WELL UP INTO THE MIDWEST AT THIS TIME...BUT
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND HAS
RESULTED IN A LINE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION TO
THE WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION NORTHWEST OF A
COMANCHE TO DALLAS TO BONHAM LINE WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LINE...BUT POPS ARE LOWER IN THIS REGION DUE TO MORE UNCERTAINTY.
THE LIKELY TRACK OF THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL TAKE IT
ACROSS THE MINERAL WELLS TO SHERMAN AREA THAT SAW 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. MORE RAIN WILL EXACERBATE FLOODING PROBLEMS
AND THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A BAND OF THE
COUNTIES NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX THROUGH NOON. THERE
IS A LOW SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY THIS SHOULD BE MORE OF A MARGINAL WIND/SMALL HAIL THREAT.

BY THIS AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNING/S
RAIN WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION AND SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR
IN THE 700-850MB LAYER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
SUBSIDENCE MAY EVEN BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS WOULD RESPOND TO THE
SUNSHINE AND COULD REACH THE MID 70S TO 80 DEGREES ACROSS THIS
PART OF THE CWA. JUST LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

THE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN
THE ATMOSPHERE. ON ONE HAND...RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE IS EXPECTED AND IT WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT WOULD BUILD UP A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
UNANIMOUSLY SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 2000 J/KG WITH SOME
INDICATING 3500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY WOULD BE UNCAPPED...BUT IF
THE SUBSIDENCE IS DOMINANT...CONVECTION WOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME
FORMING. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED UPWARD FORCING
THAT WOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ONE OF THESE MAY BE A
DRY LINE THAT ACTUALLY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES TODAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT A
NORMAL OCCURRENCE HERE AND IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE UNUSUAL SOUTHERLY
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. THE SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FORECAST
BY THE RAP...WHICH SUGGESTS THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION WILL LEAVE
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. STRONG
SOUTH WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD INDUCE STRONG WARM ADVECTION
AND LIFT OVER THE TOP OF THIS BOUNDARY AND COULD RESULT IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP ALL FACETS OF SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP
SHEAR. THE MOST LIKELY REGION WHERE AFTERNOON STORMS WOULD DEVELOP
IS WEST OF I-35...BUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INSTABILITY OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT ALSO IN SOUTH TEXAS. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY FORM ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS FIRST THIS EVENING...WITH A
DOWNWIND PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LIKELY FORMING
AND TRACKING NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE TRACK OF THIS MCS
WOULD LIKELY BRING IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS MCS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT IF
WINDS DO BACK TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN
CENTRAL TEXAS...EMBEDDED TORNADOES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. USUALLY
WHEN VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN SOUTH TEXAS...THE CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TENDS TO STRUGGLE. SO WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND TRACK THROUGH THE AREA NORTH
OF A COMANCHE TO TERRELL LINE...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. AGAIN THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST ALL HINGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS MCS THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS
CLOSELY. RAINFALL TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE 2-4 INCHES IS LIKELY...AND 1-3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL CONTINUE AS IS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA WILL ONLY SEE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES
LOW ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. HAVE DROPPED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION OCCURRING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL ALSO STABILIZE OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA AND STALL
ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER DUE
TO CLOUDS AND DAMP CONDITIONS...WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE
SOME COLD ADVECTION TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA FOR COOLER LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO HEAD NORTH OUT OF MEXICO
AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND A SWATH OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE RAIN FORECAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY OVER THE OTHER MODELS AS IT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IS PERFORMING WELL. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH RAIN
COMING TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ROUND.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER AND OUT OF THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  59  68  57  66 /  80  90  70  20  40
WACO, TX              68  59  70  57  67 /  90 100  70  20  50
PARIS, TX             67  60  68  59  68 / 100  80  90  60  50
DENTON, TX            65  58  67  57  64 /  80  80  70  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          66  59  67  57  66 / 100  80  70  20  40
DALLAS, TX            67  59  68  58  66 /  90  90  70  20  40
TERRELL, TX           68  60  68  58  69 / 100  90  80  30  50
CORSICANA, TX         69  61  68  59  70 / 100 100  80  40  50
TEMPLE, TX            71  59  70  57  68 /  70 100  70  30  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  56  68  55  63 /  30  80  50  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ091>093-101>103-
116-117.

&&

77/25

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1215 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HURST                   32.82N  97.15W
03/08/2016                   TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT - ROOF DAMAGE TO WA PORTER ELEMENTARY IN
            HURST. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED

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