River Flood Warning 14, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
629 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS WEST OF A COMANCHE
TO CLEBURNE TO SHERMAN AS OF 2330Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SHIFT INTO THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES THIS EVENING...THUS HAVE PLACED A TEMPO 3SM TSRA IN THE
METROPLEX TAFS FOR THE 00-04Z PERIOD. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER. OUTSIDE OF THE
RAIN...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z WITH MVFR CEILING
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHER ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016/
THE FIRST OF SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS AN INITIAL BATCH OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR HAS STREAMED NORTHWARD AND WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT HAS OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A
DRYLINE IS POSITIONED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND IT HAS MADE IT AS FAR
EAST AS SWEETWATER BUT FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESSION DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING NOW
APPROACHING OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH IS HELPING TO SHARPEN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY
MAXIMIZED. LATEST LOOK AT RAP SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES INDICATES THAT A SHARP CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST 4KM NAM ALSO
SHOWS AN ABRUPT WEAKENING OF THE CAP FOLLOWED BY A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
GIVEN THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONTINUED LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THINK THAT WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL WOULD REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES VERY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE ALTHOUGH IT COULD PUT DOWN ANOTHER BAND OF AROUND 1 INCH OF
RAIN THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. IN ALL...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
COULD FALL TONIGHT IN AREAS MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATE 35W AND AREAS
WEST.

TUESDAY...IS OUR MAIN DAY IN QUESTION REGARDING THE FORECAST AS IT
COULD VERY WELL BE MOSTLY QUIET OR RATHER ACTIVE. IT IS APPEARING
MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SO POPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL MAIN AREAS OF ASCENT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT DOES MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WEST OF I-35. IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE A DEEP MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT A RATHER UNPERTURBED UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE VERY WEAKLY
CAPPED. THIS SEEMS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES BACK WEAKLY IN THE MID LEVELS
LIKELY INDICATING SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY. IF THIS IS IN FACT THE CASE...THEN IT MAY BE A
QUIET DAY...ALTHOUGH HUMID AND WARM. IF THE SUBSIDENCE DOES NOT
EXIST AND WE HAVE ANY LIFT AT ALL...THEN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
IMPACT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS ON THE AIRMASS AND POSSIBLY
ANY DATA FROM 12 OR 18Z SOUNDINGS TOMORROW CAN OFFER. FOR NOW...WE
WILL SIDE WITH LOWER OVERALL POPS AND MONITOR THE THREAT CLOSELY.
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH IN A SMALL CORRIDOR ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE WARM ADVECTION STREAMER SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE.

THE NEXT LARGE AREA OF LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS LIKELY THE TIME WHEN THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...EAST OF THE METROPLEX FOR
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME AREAS IN THE FLOOD WATCH
COULD SEE MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF RAIN. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUESDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING INTO A
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
DISCREPANCIES GROW REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. WE CAN
SAY WITH CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  75  60  68  57 /  80  50 100  60  50
WACO, TX              66  77  59  70  56 /  60  40 100  60  50
PARIS, TX             62  72  61  68  58 /  70  90 100  90  50
DENTON, TX            64  74  59  68  56 /  80  50 100  60  50
MCKINNEY, TX          65  74  60  67  56 /  80  50 100  70  50
DALLAS, TX            68  75  60  69  58 /  70  50 100  70  50
TERRELL, TX           67  75  60  69  58 /  60  60 100  80  50
CORSICANA, TX         65  76  61  69  58 /  50  50 100  70  50
TEMPLE, TX            66  78  59  70  56 /  60  40 100  50  50
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  77  57  68  54 /  80  50  80  50  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

58/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
348 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
348 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS THE ACTIVITY
MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING. SOME STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE COMPLEX...BUT THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ALONG A LINE FROM JACKSBORO...TO
STEPHENVILLE...TO LAMPASAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THE ACTIVITY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR
FLOODING WILL BE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

ALTHOUGH NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING.

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