Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Models in general agreement with the H5 high building over the
middle of the country putting the CWA in a weak northwest flow. What
the models disagree on is how far the surface boundary...currently
over KY/TN...moves into the state which would bring a little more
stable air into the CWA for Wednesday afternoon. The NAM keeps it
out of the state while the GFS puts it into central GA Wednesday.
GFS has been pushing this back in time with each run and am
leaning toward a NAM solution. Will therefore keep chance pops
across central GA Wednesday afternoon and slight chance north with
the exception of the mountains where differential heating on the
slopes should keep a least a chance of tsra during the afternoon.

Although max temps on Wednesday will be mostly in the mid 90s...heat
index values will be below advisory criteria.

17

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
No changes from previous forecast. Previous long term discussion
follows...

39

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Again looking at large...east-west oriented upper ridge as primary
feature in CONUS weather pattern during long term period. Ridge
just a tad weaker than earlier forecasts but still will steer flow
around the central and mid-south states. Could see a batch of
moisture on the periphery of ridge...associated with overnight
storms and weak lift thurs and thurs night in the state but not
hanging my hat on anything widespread. Hard to see any real drying
in this current set of models. Have kept chc pops in the afternoon
and slight chc pops in the evening and overnight thru fcst.

Still no signs of tropical development in Atlantic basin. Would be
nice to see some shift in that pattern if only to allow a few weak
storms into the Gulf to increase rainfall and drop temps here.
This spotty convection is not helping relieve growing drought
conditions.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Band of convection moving across CSG/MCN areas...should be out of
both areas by mid afternoon. Expect scattered tsra to develop
across north GA and move into central GA later this afternoon with
all activity diminishing after sunset. Some drier air moving into
the CWA Wednesday but could see isolated to scattered tsra develop
again Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be light west to northwest
through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on convection.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  96  73  95 /  50  20  20  20
Atlanta         73  94  74  95 /  50  20  20  20
Blairsville     67  92  67  90 /  50  40  20  30
Cartersville    71  96  72  95 /  50  20  20  20
Columbus        74  96  75  97 /  50  30  20  20
Gainesville     71  94  72  93 /  50  20  20  20
Macon           72  96  73  97 /  50  30  20  30
Rome            72  97  71  97 /  50  20  20  20
Peachtree City  71  95  72  95 /  50  20  20  20
Vidalia         74  96  74  95 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... MAINLY BETWEEN 1PM AND 10PM. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 65 MPH... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN STORM THREATS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA...OR ON TWITTER USING THE HANDLE AT
NWSATLANTA OR HASHTAG GAWX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
705 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ038-039-051-062-192330-
TALIAFERRO GA-OGLETHORPE GA-WILKES GA-WARREN GA-
705 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TALIAFERRO...SOUTHERN
OGLETHORPE...WILKES AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 705 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER WASHINGTON...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
WASHINGTON...TIGNALL...RAYLE...SHARON...CAMAK...LYNEVILLE...CELESTE..
.
HOLLIDAY PARK...LUNDBERG...CARTERS GROVE...RAYTOWN...MESENA...NEWTOWN...
METASVILLE...AONIA...SANDY CROSS...ROCKY CREEK FIRE DEPT....PHILOMATH...
CADLEY AND FICKLIN.

LAT...LON 3364 8254 3364 8257 3365 8258 3363 8258
      3364 8259 3363 8261 3363 8262 3362 8262
      3361 8265 3346 8259 3343 8260 3365 8296
      3366 8295 3368 8297 3369 8302 3376 8313
      3391 8273 3380 8258 3369 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 065DEG 36KT 3374 8277

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
709 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ022-032>034-044-045-055-057-192345-
DEKALB GA-HENRY GA-COBB GA-NORTH FULTON GA-SOUTH FULTON GA-
CLAYTON GA-GWINNETT GA-FORSYTH GA-
709 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEKALB...NORTHWESTERN HENRY...
SOUTHEASTERN COBB...NORTH FULTON...SOUTH FULTON...NORTHERN CLAYTON...
GWINNETT AND SOUTHWESTERN FORSYTH COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 709 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR COLLEGE PARK TO BERKELEY LAKE...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. MINOR FLASH
           FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
           IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE
           PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO
           HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO
           TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE...DECATUR...SANDY SPRINGS...ROSWELL...JOHNS
CREEK... ALPHARETTA...SMYRNA...DUNWOODY...EAST
POINT...DULUTH...STOCKBRIDGE...FOREST
PARK...SNELLVILLE...SUWANEE...RIVERDALE...COLLEGE
PARK...LILBURN...CHAMBLEE AND NORCROSS.

LAT...LON 3373 8459 3373 8458 3375 8458 3417 8423
      3389 8391 3364 8415 3364 8418 3362 8417
      3353 8426 3357 8447 3365 8448 3370 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 300DEG 14KT 3365 8452 3397 8418

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
720 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ036>038-049-050-192345-
MORGAN GA-OGLETHORPE GA-OCONEE GA-GREENE GA-CLARKE GA-
720 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MORGAN...SOUTHWESTERN
OGLETHORPE...EASTERN OCONEE...NORTHWESTERN GREENE AND SOUTHEASTERN
CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 720 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WHITEHALL...OR NEAR
ATHENS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
WATKINSVILLE...WINTERVILLE...CRAWFORD...ARNOLDSVILLE...BISHOP...MAXEY
S... WHITEHALL...ATHENS-CLARKE COUNTY...BARNETT
SHOALS...FARMINGTON... WRAYSWOOD...STATE BOTANICAL GARDEN OF
GA...DUNLAP AND HUTCHINGS.

LAT...LON 3399 8334 3392 8315 3364 8321 3377 8352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 028DEG 21KT 3391 8329

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIRBURN                33.57N  84.58W
07/19/2016                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT LEAST 6 TREES DOWN ACROSS SW PART OF COUNTY ALONG
            WITH INITIAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600532

BAKER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
744 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ038-039-051-200015-
TALIAFERRO GA-OGLETHORPE GA-WILKES GA-
744 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TALIAFERRO...SOUTHEASTERN
OGLETHORPE AND SOUTHWESTERN WILKES COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 744 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WASHINGTON...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
WASHINGTON...RAYLE...SHARON...NEWTOWN...CELESTE...LUNDBERG...SANDY
CROSS... CARTERS GROVE...RAYTOWN...PHILOMATH AND FICKLIN.

LAT...LON 3353 8274 3366 8295 3368 8297 3368 8298
      3371 8303 3385 8286 3377 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 028DEG 19KT 3375 8281