Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Models in general agreement with the H5 high building over the
middle of the country putting the CWA in a weak northwest flow. What
the models disagree on is how far the surface boundary...currently
over KY/TN...moves into the state which would bring a little more
stable air into the CWA for Wednesday afternoon. The NAM keeps it
out of the state while the GFS puts it into central GA Wednesday.
GFS has been pushing this back in time with each run and am
leaning toward a NAM solution. Will therefore keep chance pops
across central GA Wednesday afternoon and slight chance north with
the exception of the mountains where differential heating on the
slopes should keep a least a chance of tsra during the afternoon.

Although max temps on Wednesday will be mostly in the mid 90s...heat
index values will be below advisory criteria.

17

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
No changes from previous forecast. Previous long term discussion
follows...

39

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Again looking at large...east-west oriented upper ridge as primary
feature in CONUS weather pattern during long term period. Ridge
just a tad weaker than earlier forecasts but still will steer flow
around the central and mid-south states. Could see a batch of
moisture on the periphery of ridge...associated with overnight
storms and weak lift thurs and thurs night in the state but not
hanging my hat on anything widespread. Hard to see any real drying
in this current set of models. Have kept chc pops in the afternoon
and slight chc pops in the evening and overnight thru fcst.

Still no signs of tropical development in Atlantic basin. Would be
nice to see some shift in that pattern if only to allow a few weak
storms into the Gulf to increase rainfall and drop temps here.
This spotty convection is not helping relieve growing drought
conditions.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Band of convection moving across CSG/MCN areas...should be out of
both areas by mid afternoon. Expect scattered tsra to develop
across north GA and move into central GA later this afternoon with
all activity diminishing after sunset. Some drier air moving into
the CWA Wednesday but could see isolated to scattered tsra develop
again Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be light west to northwest
through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on convection.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  96  73  95 /  50  20  20  20
Atlanta         73  94  74  95 /  50  20  20  20
Blairsville     67  92  67  90 /  50  40  20  30
Cartersville    71  96  72  95 /  50  20  20  20
Columbus        74  96  75  97 /  50  30  20  20
Gainesville     71  94  72  93 /  50  20  20  20
Macon           72  96  73  97 /  50  30  20  30
Rome            72  97  71  97 /  50  20  20  20
Peachtree City  71  95  72  95 /  50  20  20  20
Vidalia         74  96  74  95 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... MAINLY BETWEEN 1PM AND 10PM. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 65 MPH... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN STORM THREATS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA...OR ON TWITTER USING THE HANDLE AT
NWSATLANTA OR HASHTAG GAWX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
517 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ019-020-030-192145-
BARTOW GA-POLK GA-FLOYD GA-
517 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BARTOW...NORTHEASTERN
POLK AND SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 517 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR KINGSTON...OR 10 MILES
EAST OF ROME...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ROME...EUHARLEE...KINGSTON...TAYLORSVILLE...SHANNON...LINDALE AND
PINSON.

LAT...LON 3438 8504 3429 8486 3404 8500 3416 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 031DEG 9KT 3428 8500

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
518 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ074-076-192145-
WASHINGTON GA-JEFFERSON GA-
518 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 518 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
LOUISVILLE...DAVISBORO...GRANGE AND STAPLETONS CROSSROADS.

LAT...LON 3315 8249 3303 8236 3287 8252 3306 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 051DEG 9KT 3307 8247

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
524 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ061-074-075-192200-
GLASCOCK GA-WASHINGTON GA-HANCOCK GA-
524 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GLASCOCK...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 600
PM EDT...

AT 524 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MITCHELL...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SPARTA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
HAMBURG STATE PARK AND WARTHEN.

LAT...LON 3328 8280 3314 8267 3309 8264 3307 8269
      3301 8281 3314 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 051DEG 9KT 3317 8281

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
539 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ053-054-056-067-192215-
SPALDING GA-COWETA GA-FAYETTE GA-MERIWETHER GA-
539 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SPALDING...SOUTHEASTERN
COWETA...SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND NORTHEASTERN MERIWETHER COUNTIES
UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 538 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER SENOIA...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLASH FLOODING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PEACHTREE
CITY...SENOIA...GRANTVILLE...LUTHERSVILLE...BROOKS...MORELAND...
SHARPSBURG...TURIN...HARALSON...DIGBEY...WOOSTER...ROCKY
MOUNT...STARRS MILL AND ALVATON.

LAT...LON 3340 8459 3328 8442 3308 8464 3325 8482
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 039DEG 5KT 3328 8458

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
540 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ076-192215-
JEFFERSON GA-
540 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 540 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WRENS...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GROVETOWN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
           IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE
           PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO
           HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO
           TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
WRENS...STELLAVILLE AND MATTHEWS.

LAT...LON 3319 8225 3314 8233 3320 8242 3327 8244
      3331 8238 3331 8234 3330 8231 3327 8229
      3326 8226 3323 8224 3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 051DEG 5KT 3326 8232

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
545 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ044-053-054-192215-
SOUTH FULTON GA-COWETA GA-FAYETTE GA-
545 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FULTON...NORTHEASTERN
COWETA AND WESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 545 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PALMETTO...OR 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF NEWNAN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE NEWNAN...PEACHTREE
CITY...TYRONE...PALMETTO...EAST NEWNAN...MADRAS...THOMAS CROSSROADS
AND CANNONGATE.

LAT...LON 3356 8468 3344 8452 3332 8472 3344 8487
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 039DEG 5KT 3348 8466