Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
130 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1033 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

UPDATE...
Modifying this mornings sounding at FFC gives us a CAPE of 4500+.
With surface temps peaking in the mid/upper 90s and seeing that
convection is already developing along the NE Alabama/NW Georgia
border...will increase pops to 50% but may need to increase to
likely category as we see how this unfolds. A few of these storms
could be severe with the main threat being damaging winds.

No other changes planned.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Upper ridge centered west of the MS river will continue as the
dominant weather feature across the forecast area. Convection
should be mainly diurnal...lasting into the evening. A trough
deepening over the northeast states should help push a frontal
boundary southward into the TN valley this afternoon or
evening...and thunderstorms may focus along this boundary. Models
show some drying into north GA by Wednesday. Not certain at this
time how far south the drier air will get...so have kept a slight
chance of thunder for the north on Wednesday...with chance pops
for much of central GA which should remain in the deeper moisture.
No big changes for temperatures...highs mostly mid 90s. No heat
advisory planned for today...only an isolated area over central GA
may reach 105 heat index.

41

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Again looking at large...east-west oriented upper ridge as primary
feature in CONUS weather pattern during long term period. Ridge
just a tad weaker than earlier forecasts but still will steer flow
around the central and mid-south states. Could see a batch of
moisture on the periphery of ridge...associated with overnight
storms and weak lift thurs and thurs night in the state but not
hanging my hat on anything widespread. Hard to see any real drying
in this current set of models. Have kept chc pops in the afternoon
and slight chc pops in the evening and overnight thru fcst.

Still no signs of tropical development in Atlantic basin. Would be
nice to see some shift in that pattern if only to allow a few weak
storms into the Gulf to increase rainfall and drop temps here.
This spotty convection is not helping relieve growing drought
conditions.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Band of convection moving across CSG/MCN areas...should be out of
both areas by mid afternoon. Expect scattered tsra to develop
across north GA and move into central GA later this afternoon with
all activity diminishing after sunset. Some drier air moving into
the CWA Wednesday but could see isolated to scattered tsra develop
again Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be light west to northwest
through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on convection.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          97  72  96  72 /  50  50  20  20
Atlanta         95  74  95  74 /  50  50  20  20
Blairsville     90  67  90  65 /  50  50  40  10
Cartersville    94  71  94  71 /  50  50  20  10
Columbus        96  75  96  75 /  50  50  30  20
Gainesville     93  73  93  73 /  50  50  20  20
Macon           97  74  97  73 /  50  50  30  20
Rome            95  72  96  71 /  50  50  20  10
Peachtree City  95  71  96  70 /  50  50  20  20
Vidalia         94  74  95  74 /  50  50  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... MAINLY BETWEEN 1PM AND 10PM. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 65 MPH... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN STORM THREATS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA...OR ON TWITTER USING THE HANDLE AT
NWSATLANTA OR HASHTAG GAWX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ069-071-080-081-191800-
UPSON GA-TAYLOR GA-CRAWFORD GA-MONROE GA-
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN UPSON...NORTHERN
TAYLOR...NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL
200 PM EDT...

AT 122 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
YATESVILLE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THOMASTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15
MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
THOMASTON...YATESVILLE...CULLODEN...THE ROCK...LINCOLN
PARK...CARSONVILLE... REDBONE CROSSROADS...SALEM...LOGTOWN...WESLEY
CHURCH AND HANNAHS MILL.

LAT...LON 3272 8433 3273 8430 3273 8429 3275 8429
      3276 8430 3276 8433 3295 8434 3299 8412
      3293 8412 3293 8410 3268 8401 3265 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 349DEG 12KT 3283 8421

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
125 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ082-094-095-191800-
PEACH GA-HOUSTON GA-BIBB GA-
125 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PEACH...NORTHEASTERN
HOUSTON AND SOUTHEASTERN BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 125 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CENTERVILLE...OR 11
MILES SOUTH OF MACON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PERRY...WARNER
ROBINS...CENTERVILLE...BYRON...ROBINS AIR FORCE BASE...
ELBERTA...BONAIRE...SKIPPERTON...RUTLAND...LAKEWOOD AND MIDDLE
GEORGIA REGIONAL AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 3251 8377 3269 8375 3269 8372 3271 8375
      3275 8375 3277 8358 3274 8357 3274 8360
      3268 8361 3266 8360 3266 8356 3264 8355
      3258 8354 3257 8355 3251 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 342DEG 12KT 3267 8366

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ096-109-191830-
DODGE GA-BLECKLEY GA-
145 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DODGE AND BLECKLEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 145 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
COCHRAN...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
COCHRAN...CHESTER...DUBOIS...PAULK...MAGNOLIA...ROYAL...MOBLEY
CROSSING... REBIE...CARY...ROWLAND...RODDY...YONKERS...BAILEYS
PARK...EMPIRE...COLEY STATION...GRESSTON...PORTER AND GOLDSBORO.

LAT...LON 3225 8337 3227 8335 3240 8350 3241 8348
      3246 8349 3249 8341 3250 8341 3251 8340
      3250 8340 3258 8322 3231 8308 3224 8337
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 342DEG 14KT 3249 8330

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
151 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ095-191830-
HOUSTON GA-
151 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HOUSTON COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM EDT...

AT 151 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER PERRY...MOVING SOUTH
AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PERRY...GROVE
PARK...CLINCHFIELD...MOSS OAK...GROVANIA...MEADOWDALE...ELKO...
HAYNEVILLE...HOUSTON LAKE...HENDERSON...SAND BED AND KLONDIKE.

LAT...LON 3229 8373 3229 8385 3238 8385 3238 8384
      3246 8384 3244 8383 3245 8381 3245 8380
      3249 8380 3251 8379 3251 8375 3252 8375
      3253 8364 3237 8355 3229 8362 3229 8370
      3228 8372
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 349DEG 14KT 3244 8372

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ091-103-191830-
WEBSTER GA-MARION GA-
154 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEBSTER AND SOUTHERN MARION
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 154 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BUENA VISTA...MOVING
SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BUENA
VISTA...PRESTON...PUTNAM...SEMINOLE...CHURCH HILL...DOYLE...ZELLOBEE
AND DRANEVILLE.

LAT...LON 3206 8464 3215 8464 3216 8465 3218 8463
      3219 8464 3222 8464 3223 8466 3236 8466
      3236 8439 3230 8439 3229 8441 3223 8441
      3223 8443 3220 8443 3218 8442 3217 8443
      3205 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 349DEG 6KT 3229 8457

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
202 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ080-093-191830-
MACON GA-TAYLOR GA-
202 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MACON AND TAYLOR
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 201 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR REYNOLDS...OR NEAR
BUTLER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
BUTLER...MARSHALLVILLE...REYNOLDS...IDEAL...POTTERVILLE...GARDEN
VALLEY... FICKLING MILL AND HICKS.

LAT...LON 3265 8426 3268 8419 3268 8416 3269 8414
      3268 8412 3268 8411 3263 8407 3258 8407
      3257 8405 3256 8405 3255 8402 3253 8400
      3251 8402 3251 8398 3245 8394 3236 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 336DEG 10KT 3260 8416