Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Models in general agreement with the H5 high building over the
middle of the country putting the CWA in a weak northwest flow. What
the models disagree on is how far the surface boundary...currently
over KY/TN...moves into the state which would bring a little more
stable air into the CWA for Wednesday afternoon. The NAM keeps it
out of the state while the GFS puts it into central GA Wednesday.
GFS has been pushing this back in time with each run and am
leaning toward a NAM solution. Will therefore keep chance pops
across central GA Wednesday afternoon and slight chance north with
the exception of the mountains where differential heating on the
slopes should keep a least a chance of tsra during the afternoon.

Although max temps on Wednesday will be mostly in the mid 90s...heat
index values will be below advisory criteria.

17

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
No changes from previous forecast. Previous long term discussion
follows...

39

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Again looking at large...east-west oriented upper ridge as primary
feature in CONUS weather pattern during long term period. Ridge
just a tad weaker than earlier forecasts but still will steer flow
around the central and mid-south states. Could see a batch of
moisture on the periphery of ridge...associated with overnight
storms and weak lift thurs and thurs night in the state but not
hanging my hat on anything widespread. Hard to see any real drying
in this current set of models. Have kept chc pops in the afternoon
and slight chc pops in the evening and overnight thru fcst.

Still no signs of tropical development in Atlantic basin. Would be
nice to see some shift in that pattern if only to allow a few weak
storms into the Gulf to increase rainfall and drop temps here.
This spotty convection is not helping relieve growing drought
conditions.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Band of convection moving across CSG/MCN areas...should be out of
both areas by mid afternoon. Expect scattered tsra to develop
across north GA and move into central GA later this afternoon with
all activity diminishing after sunset. Some drier air moving into
the CWA Wednesday but could see isolated to scattered tsra develop
again Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be light west to northwest
through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on convection.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  96  73  95 /  50  20  20  20
Atlanta         73  94  74  95 /  50  20  20  20
Blairsville     67  92  67  90 /  50  40  20  30
Cartersville    71  96  72  95 /  50  20  20  20
Columbus        74  96  75  97 /  50  30  20  20
Gainesville     71  94  72  93 /  50  20  20  20
Macon           72  96  73  97 /  50  30  20  30
Rome            72  97  71  97 /  50  20  20  20
Peachtree City  71  95  72  95 /  50  20  20  20
Vidalia         74  96  74  95 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... MAINLY BETWEEN 1PM AND 10PM. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 65 MPH... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN STORM THREATS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA...OR ON TWITTER USING THE HANDLE AT
NWSATLANTA OR HASHTAG GAWX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
539 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ053-054-056-067-192215-
SPALDING GA-COWETA GA-FAYETTE GA-MERIWETHER GA-
539 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SPALDING...SOUTHEASTERN
COWETA...SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND NORTHEASTERN MERIWETHER COUNTIES
UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 538 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER SENOIA...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLASH FLOODING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PEACHTREE
CITY...SENOIA...GRANTVILLE...LUTHERSVILLE...BROOKS...MORELAND...
SHARPSBURG...TURIN...HARALSON...DIGBEY...WOOSTER...ROCKY
MOUNT...STARRS MILL AND ALVATON.

LAT...LON 3340 8459 3328 8442 3308 8464 3325 8482
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 039DEG 5KT 3328 8458

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
540 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ076-192215-
JEFFERSON GA-
540 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 540 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WRENS...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GROVETOWN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
           IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE
           PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO
           HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO
           TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
WRENS...STELLAVILLE AND MATTHEWS.

LAT...LON 3319 8225 3314 8233 3320 8242 3327 8244
      3331 8238 3331 8234 3330 8231 3327 8229
      3326 8226 3323 8224 3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 051DEG 5KT 3326 8232

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
545 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ044-053-054-192215-
SOUTH FULTON GA-COWETA GA-FAYETTE GA-
545 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FULTON...NORTHEASTERN
COWETA AND WESTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 545 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PALMETTO...OR 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF NEWNAN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE NEWNAN...PEACHTREE
CITY...TYRONE...PALMETTO...EAST NEWNAN...MADRAS...THOMAS CROSSROADS
AND CANNONGATE.

LAT...LON 3356 8468 3344 8452 3332 8472 3344 8487
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 039DEG 5KT 3348 8466

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
551 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ062-075-192215-
GLASCOCK GA-WARREN GA-
551 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GLASCOCK AND
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 550 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GIBSON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
GIBSON...REESE AND BASTONVILLE.

LAT...LON 3320 8254 3322 8261 3333 8268 3341 8255
      3335 8255 3336 8253 3334 8250 3334 8245
      3333 8243 3333 8242 3332 8241 3331 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 051DEG 5KT 3332 8254

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
552 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ027-038-192215-
MADISON GA-OGLETHORPE GA-
552 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MADISON AND NORTHERN OGLETHORPE
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 551 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FRANKLIN SPRINGS...OR
7 MILES NORTHEAST OF DANIELSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
DANIELSVILLE...COMER...COLBERT...ILA...PAOLI AND POCATALIGO.

LAT...LON 3426 8312 3423 8308 3421 8309 3417 8310
      3415 8306 3412 8305 3411 8303 3397 8311
      3414 8336 3416 8336 3425 8325 3425 8320
      3424 8317 3427 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 039DEG 5KT 3421 8313

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ042-052-053-066-192230-
HEARD GA-TROUP GA-COWETA GA-CARROLL GA-
554 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEARD...NORTHWESTERN TROUP...
WESTERN COWETA AND SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 554 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CENTRALHATCHEE...OR
NEAR FRANKLIN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
FRANKLIN...EPHESUS...CENTRALHATCHEE...ROOPVILLE...LOWELL...POWERS
CROSSROADS...TYUS...FROLONA...PLANT
WANSLEY...TEXAS...ROOSTERVILLE...HANDY... GLENN...BLACKJACK
MOUNTAIN...WARESVILLE AND PARAN.

LAT...LON 3355 8520 3345 8492 3323 8499 3310 8522
      3313 8524 3342 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 039DEG 5KT 3336 8513