Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Models in general agreement with the H5 high building over the
middle of the country putting the CWA in a weak northwest flow. What
the models disagree on is how far the surface boundary...currently
over KY/TN...moves into the state which would bring a little more
stable air into the CWA for Wednesday afternoon. The NAM keeps it
out of the state while the GFS puts it into central GA Wednesday.
GFS has been pushing this back in time with each run and am
leaning toward a NAM solution. Will therefore keep chance pops
across central GA Wednesday afternoon and slight chance north with
the exception of the mountains where differential heating on the
slopes should keep a least a chance of tsra during the afternoon.

Although max temps on Wednesday will be mostly in the mid 90s...heat
index values will be below advisory criteria.

17

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
No changes from previous forecast. Previous long term discussion
follows...

39

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Again looking at large...east-west oriented upper ridge as primary
feature in CONUS weather pattern during long term period. Ridge
just a tad weaker than earlier forecasts but still will steer flow
around the central and mid-south states. Could see a batch of
moisture on the periphery of ridge...associated with overnight
storms and weak lift thurs and thurs night in the state but not
hanging my hat on anything widespread. Hard to see any real drying
in this current set of models. Have kept chc pops in the afternoon
and slight chc pops in the evening and overnight thru fcst.

Still no signs of tropical development in Atlantic basin. Would be
nice to see some shift in that pattern if only to allow a few weak
storms into the Gulf to increase rainfall and drop temps here.
This spotty convection is not helping relieve growing drought
conditions.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Band of convection moving across CSG/MCN areas...should be out of
both areas by mid afternoon. Expect scattered tsra to develop
across north GA and move into central GA later this afternoon with
all activity diminishing after sunset. Some drier air moving into
the CWA Wednesday but could see isolated to scattered tsra develop
again Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be light west to northwest
through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on convection.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  96  73  95 /  50  20  20  20
Atlanta         73  94  74  95 /  50  20  20  20
Blairsville     67  92  67  90 /  50  40  20  30
Cartersville    71  96  72  95 /  50  20  20  20
Columbus        74  96  75  97 /  50  30  20  20
Gainesville     71  94  72  93 /  50  20  20  20
Macon           72  96  73  97 /  50  30  20  30
Rome            72  97  71  97 /  50  20  20  20
Peachtree City  71  95  72  95 /  50  20  20  20
Vidalia         74  96  74  95 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... MAINLY BETWEEN 1PM AND 10PM. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 65 MPH... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN STORM THREATS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA...OR ON TWITTER USING THE HANDLE AT
NWSATLANTA OR HASHTAG GAWX.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
250 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N DUDLEY              32.55N  83.07W
07/18/2016                   LAURENS            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 TREES DOWN IN THE NORTHWOOD TRAIL SUBDIVISION JUST
            NORTH OF DUDLEY

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600528

DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
252 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ098-111-112-191915-
WHEELER GA-MONTGOMERY GA-TREUTLEN GA-
252 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WHEELER...MONTGOMERY
AND EASTERN TREUTLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 252 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR AILEY...OR NEAR MOUNT
VERNON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SOPERTON...MOUNT
VERNON...VIDALIA...GLENWOOD...UVALDA...AILEY...HIGGSTON...
ALSTON...TARRYTOWN...GILLIS
SPRINGS...CHARLOTTEVILLE...ZAIDEE...KIBBEE AND LANDSBURG.

LAT...LON 3210 8278 3250 8253 3250 8250 3245 8240
      3243 8238 3229 8243 3197 8248 3197 8250
      3195 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 021DEG 11KT 3225 8254

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
301 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ056-069>071-191930-
UPSON GA-SPALDING GA-LAMAR GA-MONROE GA-
301 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UPSON...SOUTHERN
SPALDING...LAMAR AND WESTERN MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BARNESVILLE...MOVING
SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
BARNESVILLE...MILNER...YATESVILLE...ALDORA...THE
ROCK...COLLIER...CHAPPEL
MILL...REDBONE...BRENT...JOHNSTONVILLE...RUSSELLVILLE...GOGGINS...PIE
DMONT AND LIBERTY HILL.

LAT...LON 3299 8428 3300 8427 3304 8426 3304 8425
      3306 8425 3320 8419 3317 8398 3290 8397
      3294 8430
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 008DEG 13KT 3311 8411

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
311 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ104>108-191945-
SUMTER GA-CRISP GA-WILCOX GA-DOOLY GA-PULASKI GA-
311 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUMTER...CRISP...WILCOX...DOOLY
AND SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 310 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAWKINSVILLE TO NEAR PLAINS...AND
MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
AMERICUS...CORDELE...VIENNA...ABBEVILLE...UNADILLA...ROCHELLE...ARABI
... BYROMVILLE...PINEVIEW...PINEHURST...LESLIE...PITTS...LILLY...DE
SOTO... DOOLING...DESOTO...SMITHVILLE...COBB...SUMTER AND LAMAR.

LAT...LON 3182 8385 3184 8386 3185 8394 3191 8392
      3191 8433 3213 8441 3216 8418 3218 8418
      3219 8410 3217 8403 3222 8399 3231 8353
      3186 8319 3184 8328 3185 8361 3180 8361
      3180 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 344DEG 52KT 3223 8357 3200 8435

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ072-082>084-191945-
TWIGGS GA-WILKINSON GA-JONES GA-BIBB GA-
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TWIGGS...WESTERN
WILKINSON...SOUTHEASTERN JONES AND EASTERN BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
EDT...

AT 321 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR GORDON...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GRAY...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
MACON...GORDON...DRY BRANCH...FRANKLINTON...CROSS
KEYS...GRISWOLDVILLE... MOUNTAIN SPRINGS...MYRICKS MILL AND POSTELL.

LAT...LON 3280 8366 3296 8349 3294 8338 3293 8336
      3293 8334 3292 8334 3277 8338 3275 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 017DEG 5KT 3289 8344

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
339 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ097-109>111-192015-
WHEELER GA-DODGE GA-LAURENS GA-TELFAIR GA-
339 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WHEELER...SOUTHEASTERN
DODGE...SOUTHERN LAURENS AND NORTHWESTERN TELFAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 415
PM EDT...

AT 339 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CHAUNCEY...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MCRAE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
MCRAE...EASTMAN...HELENA...MILAN...RHINE...SCOTLAND...CHAUNCEY...
GODWINSVILLE...ACHORD...FIVE POINTS...LITTLE OCMULGEE STATE PARK AND
JAY BIRD SPRINGS.

LAT...LON 3200 8324 3221 8315 3221 8287 3198 8280
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 297DEG 5KT 3215 8298