Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Models in general agreement with the H5 high building over the
middle of the country putting the CWA in a weak northwest flow. What
the models disagree on is how far the surface boundary...currently
over KY/TN...moves into the state which would bring a little more
stable air into the CWA for Wednesday afternoon. The NAM keeps it
out of the state while the GFS puts it into central GA Wednesday.
GFS has been pushing this back in time with each run and am
leaning toward a NAM solution. Will therefore keep chance pops
across central GA Wednesday afternoon and slight chance north with
the exception of the mountains where differential heating on the
slopes should keep a least a chance of tsra during the afternoon.

Although max temps on Wednesday will be mostly in the mid 90s...heat
index values will be below advisory criteria.

17

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
No changes from previous forecast. Previous long term discussion
follows...

39

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Again looking at large...east-west oriented upper ridge as primary
feature in CONUS weather pattern during long term period. Ridge
just a tad weaker than earlier forecasts but still will steer flow
around the central and mid-south states. Could see a batch of
moisture on the periphery of ridge...associated with overnight
storms and weak lift thurs and thurs night in the state but not
hanging my hat on anything widespread. Hard to see any real drying
in this current set of models. Have kept chc pops in the afternoon
and slight chc pops in the evening and overnight thru fcst.

Still no signs of tropical development in Atlantic basin. Would be
nice to see some shift in that pattern if only to allow a few weak
storms into the Gulf to increase rainfall and drop temps here.
This spotty convection is not helping relieve growing drought
conditions.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Band of convection moving across CSG/MCN areas...should be out of
both areas by mid afternoon. Expect scattered tsra to develop
across north GA and move into central GA later this afternoon with
all activity diminishing after sunset. Some drier air moving into
the CWA Wednesday but could see isolated to scattered tsra develop
again Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be light west to northwest
through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on convection.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  96  73  95 /  50  20  20  20
Atlanta         73  94  74  95 /  50  20  20  20
Blairsville     67  92  67  90 /  50  40  20  30
Cartersville    71  96  72  95 /  50  20  20  20
Columbus        74  96  75  97 /  50  30  20  20
Gainesville     71  94  72  93 /  50  20  20  20
Macon           72  96  73  97 /  50  30  20  30
Rome            72  97  71  97 /  50  20  20  20
Peachtree City  71  95  72  95 /  50  20  20  20
Vidalia         74  96  74  95 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... MAINLY BETWEEN 1PM AND 10PM. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 65 MPH... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN STORM THREATS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA...OR ON TWITTER USING THE HANDLE AT
NWSATLANTA OR HASHTAG GAWX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
618 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ043-044-054-192245-
SOUTH FULTON GA-FAYETTE GA-DOUGLAS GA-
618 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FULTON...NORTHWESTERN
FAYETTE AND EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 618 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FAIRBURN...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLASVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ATLANTA...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...UNION
CITY...FAIRBURN...TYRONE... PALMETTO...SANDTOWN...SANDY CREEK AND
CAMPBELLTON.

LAT...LON 3374 8468 3373 8453 3372 8452 3350 8450
      3350 8462 3351 8462 3351 8476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 169DEG 7KT 3366 8462

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
623 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ053-066-067-192300-
TROUP GA-COWETA GA-MERIWETHER GA-
623 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TROUP...SOUTHWESTERN
COWETA AND NORTHWESTERN MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 623 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER LONE OAK...OR 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GREENVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
           IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE
           PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO
           HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO
           TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
HOGANSVILLE...GRANTVILLE...LUTHERSVILLE...MORELAND...LONE OAK AND
SAINT MARKS.

LAT...LON 3333 8486 3328 8467 3305 8475 3316 8495
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 023DEG 14KT 3318 8483

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
624 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ032>034-045-192300-
DEKALB GA-COBB GA-NORTH FULTON GA-GWINNETT GA-
624 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DEKALB...
NORTHEASTERN COBB...NORTH FULTON AND WESTERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL
700 PM EDT...

AT 624 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER ROSWELL...OR 13 MILES
EAST OF MARIETTA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH...PEA SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS
           SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF
           CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ATLANTA...MARIETTA...SANDY SPRINGS...ROSWELL...JOHNS
CREEK...ALPHARETTA...
SMYRNA...DUNWOODY...DULUTH...CHAMBLEE...NORCROSS...DORAVILLE...BERKEL
EY LAKE...NORTH ATLANTA...NORTH DRUID HILLS...NORTH
DECATUR...TUCKER... MOUNTAIN PARK...MOUNT BETHEL AND CHASTAIN
MEMORIAL PARK.

LAT...LON 3411 8439 3403 8409 3381 8428 3390 8453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 023DEG 14KT 3401 8433

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
629 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ061-062-074>076-192300-
GLASCOCK GA-WASHINGTON GA-JEFFERSON GA-HANCOCK GA-WARREN GA-
629 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GLASCOCK...NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...EASTERN HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN
WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 629 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER GIBSON...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
GIBSON...AVERA...MITCHELL...EDGE HILL...EDGEHILL...REESE...BEALL
SPRINGS... SHOALS...DOWNS...HAMBURG STATE PARK AND AGRICOLA.

LAT...LON 3341 8263 3324 8247 3305 8269 3323 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 051DEG 14KT 3327 8261

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
630 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ027-036-038-192300-
MADISON GA-OGLETHORPE GA-CLARKE GA-
630 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MADISON...NORTHWESTERN
OGLETHORPE AND NORTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 630 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR COMER...OR NEAR
DANIELSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
DANIELSVILLE...COMER...WINTERVILLE...COLBERT...ARNOLDSVILLE...HULL...
ATHENS-CLARKE COUNTY...SMITHONIA...NEESE...DIAMOND HILL...WATSON MILL
BRIDGE STATE PARK...PAOLI AND DUNLAP.

LAT...LON 3412 8305 3412 8304 3388 8310 3397 8339
      3419 8324
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 023DEG 14KT 3409 8318

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
639 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ041-042-192315-
CARROLL GA-HARALSON GA-
639 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CARROLL AND HARALSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 639 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BUCHANAN...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
BUCHANAN...BREMEN...TALLAPOOSA...BOWDON...MOUNT ZION AND WACO.

LAT...LON 3390 8530 3383 8510 3353 8527 3354 8532
      3380 8537
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 023DEG 14KT 3380 8524