Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
130 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1033 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

UPDATE...
Modifying this mornings sounding at FFC gives us a CAPE of 4500+.
With surface temps peaking in the mid/upper 90s and seeing that
convection is already developing along the NE Alabama/NW Georgia
border...will increase pops to 50% but may need to increase to
likely category as we see how this unfolds. A few of these storms
could be severe with the main threat being damaging winds.

No other changes planned.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Upper ridge centered west of the MS river will continue as the
dominant weather feature across the forecast area. Convection
should be mainly diurnal...lasting into the evening. A trough
deepening over the northeast states should help push a frontal
boundary southward into the TN valley this afternoon or
evening...and thunderstorms may focus along this boundary. Models
show some drying into north GA by Wednesday. Not certain at this
time how far south the drier air will get...so have kept a slight
chance of thunder for the north on Wednesday...with chance pops
for much of central GA which should remain in the deeper moisture.
No big changes for temperatures...highs mostly mid 90s. No heat
advisory planned for today...only an isolated area over central GA
may reach 105 heat index.

41

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Again looking at large...east-west oriented upper ridge as primary
feature in CONUS weather pattern during long term period. Ridge
just a tad weaker than earlier forecasts but still will steer flow
around the central and mid-south states. Could see a batch of
moisture on the periphery of ridge...associated with overnight
storms and weak lift thurs and thurs night in the state but not
hanging my hat on anything widespread. Hard to see any real drying
in this current set of models. Have kept chc pops in the afternoon
and slight chc pops in the evening and overnight thru fcst.

Still no signs of tropical development in Atlantic basin. Would be
nice to see some shift in that pattern if only to allow a few weak
storms into the Gulf to increase rainfall and drop temps here.
This spotty convection is not helping relieve growing drought
conditions.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Band of convection moving across CSG/MCN areas...should be out of
both areas by mid afternoon. Expect scattered tsra to develop
across north GA and move into central GA later this afternoon with
all activity diminishing after sunset. Some drier air moving into
the CWA Wednesday but could see isolated to scattered tsra develop
again Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be light west to northwest
through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on convection.
High on remaining elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          97  72  96  72 /  50  50  20  20
Atlanta         95  74  95  74 /  50  50  20  20
Blairsville     90  67  90  65 /  50  50  40  10
Cartersville    94  71  94  71 /  50  50  20  10
Columbus        96  75  96  75 /  50  50  30  20
Gainesville     93  73  93  73 /  50  50  20  20
Macon           97  74  97  73 /  50  50  30  20
Rome            95  72  96  71 /  50  50  20  10
Peachtree City  95  71  96  70 /  50  50  20  20
Vidalia         94  74  95  74 /  50  50  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1038 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA... MAINLY BETWEEN 1PM AND 10PM. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 65 MPH... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN STORM THREATS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA...OR ON TWITTER USING THE HANDLE AT
NWSATLANTA OR HASHTAG GAWX.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ092-093-191845-
MACON GA-SCHLEY GA-
212 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MACON AND
SOUTHEASTERN SCHLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 211 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER IDEAL...OR 7 MILES
WEST OF OGLETHORPE...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ELLAVILLE...OGLETHORPE...MONTEZUMA...IDEAL...MURRAYS CROSSROADS...
FOUNTAINVILLE...ANDERSONVILLE NATIONAL
HISTORIC...BUMPHEAD...CLEARVIEW... BARTLETT...WHITEWATER STATE PARK
AND LA CROSSE.

LAT...LON 3217 8430 3217 8432 3235 8435 3239 8409
      3223 8397 3219 8413 3223 8414 3223 8418
      3218 8418 3216 8425 3216 8428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 351DEG 18KT 3233 8418

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
219 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ092-093-104-191845-
SUMTER GA-MACON GA-SCHLEY GA-
219 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SUMTER...SOUTHERN
MACON AND SOUTHEASTERN SCHLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 218 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ANDERSONVILLE...OR 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF OGLETHORPE...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.
           LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
           IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE
           PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO
           HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO
           TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
AMERICUS...ANDERSONVILLE...NEW ERA...ANDERSONVILLE NATIONAL
HISTORIC... BUMPHEAD...METHVINS AND PENNINGTON.

LAT...LON 3216 8427 3223 8416 3219 8402 3218 8403
      3215 8403 3213 8401 3212 8401 3211 8400
      3210 8400 3209 8398 3208 8398 3207 8399
      3206 8398 3203 8428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 350DEG 18KT 3224 8416

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
220 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ089-090-191845-
MUSCOGEE GA-CHATTAHOOCHEE GA-
220 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MUSCOGEE AND SOUTHERN
CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 220 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR NORTH FORT
BENNING...OR NEAR CUSSETA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CUSSETA...SAND
HILL...CARTER ACRES...MANTA...BATTLE PARK...CUSTER ROAD
TERRACE...BENNING HILLS...CHRISTOPHER AND JAMESTOWN/SOUTH FORT
BENNING.

LAT...LON 3228 8492 3230 8494 3231 8497 3238 8497
      3239 8498 3239 8497 3240 8498 3241 8498
      3242 8496 3246 8481 3229 8469 3226 8487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 309DEG 14KT 3239 8483

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ095-105-107-108-191900-
WILCOX GA-HOUSTON GA-DOOLY GA-PULASKI GA-
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WILCOX...
SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON...EASTERN DOOLY AND PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 300
PM EDT...

AT 221 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF COCHRAN TO NEAR HAWKINSVILLE TO
UNADILLA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
HAWKINSVILLE...VIENNA...UNADILLA...PINEVIEW...PINEHURST...HARTFORD...
PULASKI STATE PRISON...CEDAR CREEK...GROVANIA...OCMULGEE PUBLIC
FISHING AREA...POPE CITY...WALLACE...HAYNEVILLE...OCMULGEE
BANKS...BROWNDALE... TIPPETTVILLE...PLEASANT VIEW...MOCK
SPRINGS...CLINCHFIELD AND FINLEYSON.

LAT...LON 3203 8378 3233 8380 3249 8349 3245 8350
      3241 8348 3240 8350 3227 8335 3225 8337
      3218 8329 3215 8332 3213 8331 3211 8334
      3209 8332 3209 8331 3208 8330 3205 8331
      3202 8329
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 333DEG 24KT 3240 8346 3229 8356 3225 8370

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ078-089-191900-
MUSCOGEE GA-HARRIS GA-
230 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MUSCOGEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 230 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SMITHS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
MOUNTAIN HILL...GOAT ROCK LAKE...GREEN ISLAND HILLS...BARTLETTS FERRY
DAM AND FORTSON.

LAT...LON 3266 8509 3267 8509 3272 8500 3258 8491
      3252 8500 3256 8504 3258 8507 3262 8509
      3263 8508 3264 8510 3264 8511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 333DEG 6KT 3261 8504

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
232 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ069>071-191900-
UPSON GA-LAMAR GA-MONROE GA-
232 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN UPSON...SOUTHERN
LAMAR AND SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 232 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BARNESVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S
           LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
           ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
BARNESVILLE...YATESVILLE...ALDORA...COLLIER...REDBONE...GOGGINS...BRE
NT... LOGTOWN AND JOHNSTONVILLE.

LAT...LON 3306 8423 3314 8407 3294 8389 3284 8422
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 333DEG 6KT 3304 8413