Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
802 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Models are pretty similar with the overall pattern of the H5 ridge
building over the central part of the national keep the CWA in a
weak northwest flow. A weak front will move into the CWA Tuesday.
While overall instability is not as good as it is today...the added
lift provided by the weak front should be enough to keep coverage
very similar to this afternoon. Will maintain chance pops Tuesday.
Convection should diminish this evening as well as Tuesday evening.
Max temps are expected to be a little warmer Tuesday however
dewpoints will be low enough to keep heat index values from reaching
advisory criteria. None-the-less Heat Index values will still reach
the 100 to 104 range across much of the CWA with spotty 105 values.

17

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Little change in the overall pattern is expected by mid week as a
broad sub-tropical ridge of high pressure sits over the central and
southern Plains. Georgia and the Southeast region will continue to
be on the eastern periphery of the High - in an area where any one
given upper level disturbance can enhance diurnally-driven
(afternoon and evening) showers and thunderstorms.

On Wednesday, there are hints of drier air entering the state from
the north which could limit daytime convection - to at least south
of I-20. However, by Thursday and Friday, the deeper moisture
returns as will the more widespread coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Overall severe threat will remain low, but cannot
rule out isolated severe storms with damaging winds - as is often
the case when you have a hot/humid airmass in place.

The other concern/story will be the persistent HEAT! As the upr
ridge builds/strengthens, temps will climb a few degrees by
Wednesday and Thursday. Drier air could hold humidity and heat
indices down a bit, but actual air temperatures will likely be in
the mid to upr 90s area-wide with a few locations flirting with 100F

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

Most of the TSRA activity has pushed outside of the terminals this
evening with the lone exception of CSG where storms continue to
impact the area. Have kept a TEMPO in for them through 02Z.
Otherwise...clearing conditions expected through this evening and
a repeat performance for the most part on Tue. Have included a
Prob30 for all sites except AHN where a little more dry air begins
to work in leaving them at VCSH.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
Medium on timing of convection.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  95  71  95 /  30  40  40  20
Atlanta         74  93  72  95 /  30  40  40  10
Blairsville     67  90  67  90 /  30  40  40  20
Cartersville    72  95  71  95 /  30  40  40  10
Columbus        74  96  73  96 /  30  40  40  20
Gainesville     73  93  72  93 /  30  40  40  20
Macon           73  95  71  97 /  30  40  40  20
Rome            71  95  71  96 /  30  40  40   5
Peachtree City  72  94  70  94 /  30  40  40  20
Vidalia         74  94  74  94 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...Deese

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
610 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
610 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...THROUGH AROUND 10 PM BEFORE
TAPERING OFF.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AMD MINOR URBAN FLOODING
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA OR ON TWITTER USING THE HANDLE AT NWSATLANTA
OR HASHTAG GAWX.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
819 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLUMBUS                32.46N  84.99W
07/18/2016                   MUSCOGEE           GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL TREES DOWNED OUTSIDE WRBL TV STUDIO ON 13TH
            AVE. ONE SIGN BLOWN DOWN AND SEVERAL GLASS BUS STOPS
            BLOWN OUT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600526

KS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
823 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

GAZ093-104>106-190100-
SUMTER GA-MACON GA-CRISP GA-DOOLY GA-
823 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SUMTER...SOUTHERN
MACON...NORTHWESTERN CRISP AND WESTERN DOOLY COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
EDT...

AT 823 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR
BYROMVILLE TO NEAR DESOTO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
OGLETHORPE...MONTEZUMA...BYROMVILLE...LESLIE...LILLY...DOOLING...
DESOTO...COBB...LAMAR...DRAYTON...METHVINS...THE FLINT RIVER WMA AND
PENNINGTON.

LAT...LON 3196 8414 3209 8413 3221 8409 3233 8403
      3222 8386 3191 8395
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 125DEG 5KT 3220 8395 3202 8400

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
827 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

GAZ041-042-190100-
CARROLL GA-HARALSON GA-
827 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CARROLL AND SOUTHEASTERN HARALSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 826 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BREMEN...MOVING SOUTH
AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CARROLLTON...BREMEN...TEMPLE...MOUNT ZION...WACO...CLEM...JOHN
TANNER STATE PARK...TREASURE LAKE...BOWDON JUNCTION AND ABILENE.

LAT...LON 3370 8523 3371 8521 3372 8521 3372 8520
      3377 8515 3376 8502 3363 8490 3349 8500
      3351 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 339DEG 5KT 3366 8510

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
903 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

GAZ030-041-190130-
HARALSON GA-POLK GA-
903 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HARALSON AND SOUTHWESTERN
POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 902 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR
CEDARTOWN TO WEST OF TALLAPOOSA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
CEDARTOWN...TALLAPOOSA...ESOM HILL AND ETNA.

LAT...LON 3406 8537 3402 8521 3365 8533 3365 8534
      3369 8535 3403 8541
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 356DEG 11KT 3401 8533 3376 8541

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
926 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

GAZ030-041-042-190215-
CARROLL GA-HARALSON GA-POLK GA-
926 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CARROLL...HARALSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

AT 925 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
SOUTHWEST OF CEDARTOWN TO NEAR TALLAPOOSA MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5
MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
BUCHANAN...BREMEN...TALLAPOOSA...MOUNT ZION...WACO...ESOM HILL...
FELTON AND BOWDON JUNCTION.

LAT...LON 3397 8540 3397 8518 3367 8509 3360 8527
      3362 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 321DEG 3KT 3393 8532 3376 8524

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
946 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

GAZ079-080-091-092-190215-
TALBOT GA-MARION GA-TAYLOR GA-SCHLEY GA-
946 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TALBOT...
NORTHEASTERN MARION...WESTERN TAYLOR AND NORTHWESTERN SCHLEY COUNTIES
UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

AT 945 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR
BUTLER TO NORTHWEST OF IDEAL...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S LEADING
           KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
           CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. ELECTRICAL
           APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
BUTLER...RUPERT...PRATTSBURG...CARSONVILLE...CHARING...WESLEY
CHURCH...TAZEWELL...MAUK AND HOWARD.

LAT...LON 3277 8438 3260 8443 3250 8445 3233 8445
      3242 8424 3267 8420
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 056DEG 9KT 3262 8425 3247 8432